Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes.
The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demo...
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| Year of Publication: | 2003 |
| Edition: | 186th ed. |
| Language: | English |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (211 p.) |
| Notes: | "MR-1626." |
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(CKB)111090529190250 (EBL)197480 (OCoLC)475901612 (SSID)ssj0000245236 (PQKBManifestationID)11174049 (PQKBTitleCode)TC0000245236 (PQKBWorkID)10175938 (PQKB)10056027 (Au-PeEL)EBL197480 (CaPaEBR)ebr10056160 (MiAaPQ)EBC197480 (EXLCZ)99111090529190250 |
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Lempert, Robert J. Shaping the next one hundred years [electronic resource] : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes. 186th ed. Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2003. 1 online resource (211 p.) text txt computer c online resource cr COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of dec English "MR-1626." System analysis. Decision making. Information technology. 0-8330-3275-5 Popper, Steven W., 1953- Bankes, Steven C. |
| language |
English |
| format |
Electronic eBook |
| author |
Lempert, Robert J. |
| spellingShingle |
Lempert, Robert J. Shaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY |
| author_facet |
Lempert, Robert J. Popper, Steven W., 1953- Bankes, Steven C. |
| author_variant |
r j l rj rjl |
| author2 |
Popper, Steven W., 1953- Bankes, Steven C. |
| author2_variant |
s w p sw swp s c b sc scb |
| author2_role |
TeilnehmendeR TeilnehmendeR |
| author_sort |
Lempert, Robert J. |
| title |
Shaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / |
| title_sub |
new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / |
| title_full |
Shaping the next one hundred years [electronic resource] : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes. |
| title_fullStr |
Shaping the next one hundred years [electronic resource] : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes. |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Shaping the next one hundred years [electronic resource] : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes. |
| title_auth |
Shaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / |
| title_new |
Shaping the next one hundred years |
| title_sort |
shaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / |
| publisher |
RAND, |
| publishDate |
2003 |
| physical |
1 online resource (211 p.) |
| edition |
186th ed. |
| contents |
COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY |
| isbn |
1-282-45141-3 9786612451416 0-8330-3485-5 0-8330-3275-5 |
| callnumber-first |
T - Technology |
| callnumber-subject |
T - General Technology |
| callnumber-label |
T57 |
| callnumber-sort |
T 257.6 L46 42003 |
| illustrated |
Not Illustrated |
| dewey-hundreds |
300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-tens |
320 - Political science |
| dewey-ones |
320 - Political science |
| dewey-full |
320/.6/0113 |
| dewey-sort |
3320 16 3113 |
| dewey-raw |
320/.6/0113 |
| dewey-search |
320/.6/0113 |
| oclc_num |
475901612 |
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