Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes.

• Author: Lempert, Robert J.
• TeilnehmendeR: Popper, Steven W., 1953-; Bankes, Steven C.
• Year of Publication: 2003
• Edition: 186th ed.
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (211 p.)
• Notes: "MR-1626."

The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of dec

Table of Contents

COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY