Stalking the Black Swan : : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility /

Stalking the Black Swan : : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / / Kenneth Posner.

Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard—many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Superior document:Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013
VerfasserIn:
Posner, Kenneth,
Place / Publishing House:New York, NY : : Columbia University Press, , [2010]
©2010
Year of Publication:2010
Language:English
Series:Columbia Business School Publishing
Online Access:
Physical Description:1 online resource (288 p.) :; 79 illus.
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Table of Contents:
  • Frontmatter
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • Introduction
  • Part I. Uncertainty
  • 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments
  • 2. Thinking in Probabilities
  • 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling
  • Part II. Information
  • 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy
  • 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance
  • 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry
  • Part III. Analysis and Judgment
  • 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis
  • 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling
  • 9. Judgment
  • Notes
  • Index

Similar Items