Stalking the Black Swan : : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / / Kenneth Posner.
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCardmany of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital...
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Superior document: | Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 |
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Place / Publishing House: | New York, NY : : Columbia University Press, , [2010] ©2010 |
Year of Publication: | 2010 |
Language: | English |
Series: | Columbia Business School Publishing
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Online Access: | |
Physical Description: | 1 online resource (288 p.) :; 79 illus. |
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100 | 1 | |a Posner, Kenneth, |e author. |4 aut |4 http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a Stalking the Black Swan : |b Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / |c Kenneth Posner. |
264 | 1 | |a New York, NY : |b Columbia University Press, |c [2010] | |
264 | 4 | |c ©2010 | |
300 | |a 1 online resource (288 p.) : |b 79 illus. | ||
336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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490 | 0 | |a Columbia Business School Publishing | |
505 | 0 | 0 | |t Frontmatter -- |t Contents -- |t Acknowledgments -- |t Introduction -- |t Part I. Uncertainty -- |t 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments -- |t 2. Thinking in Probabilities -- |t 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling -- |t Part II. Information -- |t 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy -- |t 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance -- |t 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry -- |t Part III. Analysis and Judgment -- |t 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis -- |t 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling -- |t 9. Judgment -- |t Notes -- |t Index |
506 | 0 | |a restricted access |u http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec |f online access with authorization |2 star | |
520 | |a Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCardmany of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time.Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposalour computers and our mindsPosner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility. | ||
530 | |a Issued also in print. | ||
538 | |a Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. | ||
546 | |a In English. | ||
588 | 0 | |a Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 02. Mrz 2022) | |
650 | 0 | |a Business cycles. | |
650 | 0 | |a Investment analysis. | |
650 | 0 | |a Investments |x Forecasting. | |
650 | 0 | |a Recessions. | |
650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / General. |2 bisacsh | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Title is part of eBook package: |d De Gruyter |t Columbia University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 |z 9783110442472 |
776 | 0 | |c print |z 9780231150484 | |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.7312/posn15048 |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780231521673 |
856 | 4 | 2 | |3 Cover |u https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9780231521673/original |
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