Stalking the Black Swan : : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / / Kenneth Posner.
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCardmany of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital...
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Place / Publishing House: | New York, NY : : Columbia University Press, , [2010] ©2010 |
Year of Publication: | 2010 |
Language: | English |
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Physical Description: | 1 online resource (288 p.) :; 79 illus. |
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Posner, Kenneth, author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / Kenneth Posner. New York, NY : Columbia University Press, [2010] ©2010 1 online resource (288 p.) : 79 illus. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda Columbia Business School Publishing Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Part I. Uncertainty -- 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments -- 2. Thinking in Probabilities -- 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling -- Part II. Information -- 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy -- 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance -- 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry -- Part III. Analysis and Judgment -- 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis -- 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling -- 9. Judgment -- Notes -- Index restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec online access with authorization star Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCardmany of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time.Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposalour computers and our mindsPosner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility. Issued also in print. Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. In English. Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 02. Mrz 2022) Business cycles. Investment analysis. Investments Forecasting. Recessions. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / General. bisacsh Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 9783110442472 print 9780231150484 https://doi.org/10.7312/posn15048 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780231521673 Cover https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9780231521673/original |
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English |
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eBook |
author |
Posner, Kenneth, Posner, Kenneth, |
spellingShingle |
Posner, Kenneth, Posner, Kenneth, Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / Columbia Business School Publishing Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Part I. Uncertainty -- 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments -- 2. Thinking in Probabilities -- 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling -- Part II. Information -- 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy -- 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance -- 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry -- Part III. Analysis and Judgment -- 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis -- 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling -- 9. Judgment -- Notes -- Index |
author_facet |
Posner, Kenneth, Posner, Kenneth, |
author_variant |
k p kp k p kp |
author_role |
VerfasserIn VerfasserIn |
author_sort |
Posner, Kenneth, |
title |
Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / |
title_sub |
Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / |
title_full |
Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / Kenneth Posner. |
title_fullStr |
Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / Kenneth Posner. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / Kenneth Posner. |
title_auth |
Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / |
title_alt |
Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Part I. Uncertainty -- 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments -- 2. Thinking in Probabilities -- 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling -- Part II. Information -- 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy -- 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance -- 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry -- Part III. Analysis and Judgment -- 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis -- 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling -- 9. Judgment -- Notes -- Index |
title_new |
Stalking the Black Swan : |
title_sort |
stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility / |
series |
Columbia Business School Publishing |
series2 |
Columbia Business School Publishing |
publisher |
Columbia University Press, |
publishDate |
2010 |
physical |
1 online resource (288 p.) : 79 illus. Issued also in print. |
contents |
Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Part I. Uncertainty -- 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments -- 2. Thinking in Probabilities -- 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling -- Part II. Information -- 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy -- 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance -- 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry -- Part III. Analysis and Judgment -- 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis -- 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling -- 9. Judgment -- Notes -- Index |
isbn |
9780231521673 9783110442472 9780231150484 |
callnumber-first |
H - Social Science |
callnumber-subject |
HG - Finance |
callnumber-label |
HG4529 |
callnumber-sort |
HG 44529 P67 42010 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7312/posn15048 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780231521673 https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9780231521673/original |
illustrated |
Illustrated |
dewey-hundreds |
300 - Social sciences |
dewey-tens |
330 - Economics |
dewey-ones |
332 - Financial economics |
dewey-full |
332.63/2042 |
dewey-sort |
3332.63 42042 |
dewey-raw |
332.63/2042 |
dewey-search |
332.63/2042 |
doi_str_mv |
10.7312/posn15048 |
oclc_num |
674689555 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT posnerkenneth stalkingtheblackswanresearchanddecisionmakinginaworldofextremevolatility |
status_str |
n |
ids_txt_mv |
(DE-B1597)459226 (OCoLC)674689555 |
carrierType_str_mv |
cr |
hierarchy_parent_title |
Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 |
is_hierarchy_title |
Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility / |
container_title |
Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 |
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1770176041218736128 |
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