Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility / / Kenneth A. Posner.
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| Year of Publication: | 2010 |
| Language: | English |
| Online Access: | |
| Physical Description: | xv, 267 p. :; ill. |
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Table of Contents:
- Forecasting in extreme environments
- Thinking in probabilities
- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
- Fighting information overload with strategy
- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
- Mitigating information asymmetry
- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
- Judgment.