Time Predictions : : Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life.

• Superior document: Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series ; v.5
• Author: Halkjelsvik, Torleif.
• TeilnehmendeR: Jørgensen, Magne.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2018.; ©2018.
• Year of Publication: 2018
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (117 pages)

Table of Contents

• Intro
• Foreword
• Preface
• Contents
• 1 Introduction
• 1.1 A Prediction Success
• 1.2 Prediction Disasters
• References
• 2 How We Predict Time Usage
• 2.1 Mental Time Travel
• 2.2 How Did You Make that Prediction?
• 2.3 Time Predictions Are Everywhere
• 2.4 How Good Are We at Predicting Time?
• References
• 3 Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future
• 3.1 Precisely Wrong or Roughly Right?
• 3.2 Communication of Time Predictions
• 3.3 Probability-Based Time Predictions
• 3.4 Right-Skewed Time Distributions
• 3.5 Relearning to Add: 2 + 2 Is Usually More Than 4
• 3.6 How to Predict the Mean Time Usage
• 3.7 How Time Predictions Affect Performance
• References
• 4 Overoptimistic Predictions
• 4.1 Optimism, Overoptimism, and Overoptimistic Predictions
• 4.2 The Benefits of Overoptimism
• 4.3 The Desire to Control Time
• 4.4 Motivation to Make Accurate Time Usage Predictions
• 4.5 Selection Bias
• 4.6 Deception
• 4.7 Who Makes the Most Realistic Time Predictions?
• References
• 5 Time Prediction Biases
• 5.1 The Team Scaling Fallacy
• 5.2 Anchoring
• 5.3 Sequence Effects
• 5.4 Format Effects
• 5.5 The Magnitude Effect
• 5.6 Length of Task Description
• 5.7 The Time Unit Effect
• References
• 6 Uncertainty of Time Predictions
• 6.1 Why Are We Overconfident?
• 6.2 What Can We Do to Avoid Overconfidence?
• 6.2.1 The Use of Alternative Interval Prediction Formats
• 6.2.2 Learning from Accuracy Feedback
• References
• 7 Time Prediction Methods and Principles
• 7.1 Unpacking and Decomposition
• 7.2 Analogies
• 7.3 Relative Predictions
• 7.4 Time Prediction Models
• 7.5 Consider Alternative Futures
• 7.6 Combinations of Time Predictions
• 7.7 Let Other People Make the Prediction?
• 7.8 Removing Irrelevant and Misleading Information.
• 7.9 From Fibonacci to T-Shirt Sizes: Time Predictions Using Alternative Scales
• References
• 8 Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation
• References
• 9 How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.