Time Predictions : : Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life.

• Superior document: Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series ; v.5
• Author: Halkjelsvik, Torleif.
• TeilnehmendeR: Jørgensen, Magne.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2018.; ©2018.
• Year of Publication: 2018
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (117 pages)

Table of Contents

Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 A Prediction Success -- 1.2 Prediction Disasters -- References -- 2 How We Predict Time Usage -- 2.1 Mental Time Travel -- 2.2 How Did You Make that Prediction? -- 2.3 Time Predictions Are Everywhere -- 2.4 How Good Are We at Predicting Time? -- References -- 3 Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future -- 3.1 Precisely Wrong or Roughly Right? -- 3.2 Communication of Time Predictions -- 3.3 Probability-Based Time Predictions -- 3.4 Right-Skewed Time Distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to Add: 2 + 2 Is Usually More Than 4 -- 3.6 How to Predict the Mean Time Usage -- 3.7 How Time Predictions Affect Performance -- References -- 4 Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.1 Optimism, Overoptimism, and Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.2 The Benefits of Overoptimism -- 4.3 The Desire to Control Time -- 4.4 Motivation to Make Accurate Time Usage Predictions -- 4.5 Selection Bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who Makes the Most Realistic Time Predictions? -- References -- 5 Time Prediction Biases -- 5.1 The Team Scaling Fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence Effects -- 5.4 Format Effects -- 5.5 The Magnitude Effect -- 5.6 Length of Task Description -- 5.7 The Time Unit Effect -- References -- 6 Uncertainty of Time Predictions -- 6.1 Why Are We Overconfident? -- 6.2 What Can We Do to Avoid Overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The Use of Alternative Interval Prediction Formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from Accuracy Feedback -- References -- 7 Time Prediction Methods and Principles -- 7.1 Unpacking and Decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative Predictions -- 7.4 Time Prediction Models -- 7.5 Consider Alternative Futures -- 7.6 Combinations of Time Predictions -- 7.7 Let Other People Make the Prediction? -- 7.8 Removing Irrelevant and Misleading Information.

7.9 From Fibonacci to T-Shirt Sizes: Time Predictions Using Alternative Scales -- References -- 8 Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- References -- 9 How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.