Time Predictions : : Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life.
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Superior document: | Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series ; v.5 |
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TeilnehmendeR: | |
Place / Publishing House: | Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2018. ©2018. |
Year of Publication: | 2018 |
Edition: | 1st ed. |
Language: | English |
Series: | Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series
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Online Access: | |
Physical Description: | 1 online resource (117 pages) |
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050 | 4 | |a HB131-147 | |
100 | 1 | |a Halkjelsvik, Torleif. | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a Time Predictions : |b Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life. |
250 | |a 1st ed. | ||
264 | 1 | |a Cham : |b Springer International Publishing AG, |c 2018. | |
264 | 4 | |c ©2018. | |
300 | |a 1 online resource (117 pages) | ||
336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
490 | 1 | |a Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series ; |v v.5 | |
505 | 0 | |a Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 A Prediction Success -- 1.2 Prediction Disasters -- References -- 2 How We Predict Time Usage -- 2.1 Mental Time Travel -- 2.2 How Did You Make that Prediction? -- 2.3 Time Predictions Are Everywhere -- 2.4 How Good Are We at Predicting Time? -- References -- 3 Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future -- 3.1 Precisely Wrong or Roughly Right? -- 3.2 Communication of Time Predictions -- 3.3 Probability-Based Time Predictions -- 3.4 Right-Skewed Time Distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to Add: 2 + 2 Is Usually More Than 4 -- 3.6 How to Predict the Mean Time Usage -- 3.7 How Time Predictions Affect Performance -- References -- 4 Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.1 Optimism, Overoptimism, and Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.2 The Benefits of Overoptimism -- 4.3 The Desire to Control Time -- 4.4 Motivation to Make Accurate Time Usage Predictions -- 4.5 Selection Bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who Makes the Most Realistic Time Predictions? -- References -- 5 Time Prediction Biases -- 5.1 The Team Scaling Fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence Effects -- 5.4 Format Effects -- 5.5 The Magnitude Effect -- 5.6 Length of Task Description -- 5.7 The Time Unit Effect -- References -- 6 Uncertainty of Time Predictions -- 6.1 Why Are We Overconfident? -- 6.2 What Can We Do to Avoid Overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The Use of Alternative Interval Prediction Formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from Accuracy Feedback -- References -- 7 Time Prediction Methods and Principles -- 7.1 Unpacking and Decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative Predictions -- 7.4 Time Prediction Models -- 7.5 Consider Alternative Futures -- 7.6 Combinations of Time Predictions -- 7.7 Let Other People Make the Prediction? -- 7.8 Removing Irrelevant and Misleading Information. | |
505 | 8 | |a 7.9 From Fibonacci to T-Shirt Sizes: Time Predictions Using Alternative Scales -- References -- 8 Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- References -- 9 How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others. | |
588 | |a Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources. | ||
590 | |a Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries. | ||
655 | 4 | |a Electronic books. | |
700 | 1 | |a Jørgensen, Magne. | |
776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Halkjelsvik, Torleif |t Time Predictions |d Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2018 |z 9783319749525 |
797 | 2 | |a ProQuest (Firm) | |
830 | 0 | |a Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series | |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/oeawat/detail.action?docID=5579430 |z Click to View |