Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century.

• Superior document: Literatur - Kultur - Oekonomie / Literature - Culture - Economy Series ; v.5
• Author: Fritsche, Ulrich.
• TeilnehmendeR: Köster, Roman.; Lenel, Laetitia.
• Place / Publishing House: Frankfurt a.M. : : Peter Lang GmbH, Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften,, 2020.; ©2020.
• Year of Publication: 2020
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Literatur - Kultur - Oekonomie / Literature - Culture - Economy Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (222 pages)

Der Sammelband beschäftigt sich aus unterschiedlichen disziplinären Perspektiven mit der Geschichte und gegenwärtigen Herausforderungen von Wirtschaftsprognosen.

Table of Contents

• Cover
• Copyright information
• Contents
• List of Authors
• Introduction
• 1. A Very Short History of Economic Forecasting
• 2. The Social Fabrication of Forecasts: Some Aspects
• 3. This Volume
• References
• Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting 1
• 1. Introduction
• 2. The Historical Record of Economic Forecasting
• 3. Why Do Forecasters Miss Recessions
• 4. Nowcasting Recessions
• 5. Conclusion
• References
• Measuring and Managing Expectations: Consumer Confidence as an Economic Indicator, 1920s-1970s
• 1. Introduction
• 2. A Tool for "Scientific Marketing": Interwar Consumer Research and Psychological Transfers
• 3. Consumer Expectations and Decision-Making: George Katona and Wartime Attitude Research
• 4. Framing the Affluent Society: Consumer Sentiment Surveys as Behavioral Economics
• 5. Framing and Managing Expectations in the Cold War: More Transatlantic Transfers of Consumer Survey Methodology
• 6. Conclusion
• References
• The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and the Public Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland, 1964-1975
• 1. The Economy as a Separated Sphere
• 2. Future Perspectives for an Economically Underexplored Country
• 3. The Motion Borel: Between Planning and Forecasting
• 4. The Perspektivstudien and the Swiss Economy as a Separated Sphere
• 5. A Switzerland of 10 Million Inhabitants
• References
• The Janus Face of Inflation Targeting: How Governing Market Expectations of the Future Imprisons Monetary Policy in a Normalized Present
• 1. Introduction: Monetary Policy and the Problems of 'Knowing the Future'
• 2. The Temporalities of Modern Central Banking: Using the Future to Escape the Fetters of the Present
• 3. What 'Futures' Does Future-Oriented Monetary Policy Govern - and How?.
• 4. Conclusion: Why Standardizing the Future Increases Uncertainties
• References
• Social Interaction, Emotion, and Economic Forecasting
• 1. Introduction
• 1.1. The Field: Economic Forecasters in German-Speaking Countries
• 2. Interaction and the Future
• 2.1. Mental Time Traveling and Foretalk
• 3. Interaction and Economic Forecasting
• 3.1. Interaction and Econometrics
• 3.2. Patterns of External Interaction
• 3.3. Patterns of Internal Interaction
• 4. Emotion and Scientific Reasoning
• 4.1. Emotions in Economic Forecasting
• 4.2. Emotion as Epistemic Resource
• 5. Conclusion
• References
• The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting 1
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Shifting the Focus from Outcomes to Processes
• 3. Data and Material
• 4. Are Predictions Predictable? Forecasting as a Sequence
• 5. What Is Updating? The Informational Grounds of Forecasts Revisions
• 6. Discussion and Conclusion
• Appendix A: Forecasts Publication Date
• Appendix B: Panel Overview
• References
• Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis
• 1. Introduction
• 2. The Survey
• 3. Empirical Results
• 3.1. Responses to Pre-Formulated Statements
• 3.2. Answers to Free Questions
• 3.3. Evidence from Probability Models
• 4. Decoupling of Academia and Macroeconomic Forecasting Camp
• 5. Conclusion
• References.