Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century.

• Superior document: Literatur - Kultur - Oekonomie / Literature - Culture - Economy Series ; v.5
• Author: Fritsche, Ulrich.
• TeilnehmendeR: Köster, Roman.; Lenel, Laetitia.
• Place / Publishing House: Frankfurt a.M. : : Peter Lang GmbH, Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften,, 2020.; ©2020.
• Year of Publication: 2020
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Literatur - Kultur - Oekonomie / Literature - Culture - Economy Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (222 pages)

Der Sammelband beschäftigt sich aus unterschiedlichen disziplinären Perspektiven mit der Geschichte und gegenwärtigen Herausforderungen von Wirtschaftsprognosen.

Table of Contents

Cover -- Copyright information -- Contents -- List of Authors -- Introduction -- 1. A Very Short History of Economic Forecasting -- 2. The Social Fabrication of Forecasts: Some Aspects -- 3. This Volume -- References -- Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting 1 -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Historical Record of Economic Forecasting -- 3. Why Do Forecasters Miss Recessions -- 4. Nowcasting Recessions -- 5. Conclusion -- References -- Measuring and Managing Expectations: Consumer Confidence as an Economic Indicator, 1920s-1970s -- 1. Introduction -- 2. A Tool for "Scientific Marketing": Interwar Consumer Research and Psychological Transfers -- 3. Consumer Expectations and Decision-Making: George Katona and Wartime Attitude Research -- 4. Framing the Affluent Society: Consumer Sentiment Surveys as Behavioral Economics -- 5. Framing and Managing Expectations in the Cold War: More Transatlantic Transfers of Consumer Survey Methodology -- 6. Conclusion -- References -- The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and the Public Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland, 1964-1975 -- 1. The Economy as a Separated Sphere -- 2. Future Perspectives for an Economically Underexplored Country -- 3. The Motion Borel: Between Planning and Forecasting -- 4. The Perspektivstudien and the Swiss Economy as a Separated Sphere -- 5. A Switzerland of 10 Million Inhabitants -- References -- The Janus Face of Inflation Targeting: How Governing Market Expectations of the Future Imprisons Monetary Policy in a Normalized Present -- 1. Introduction: Monetary Policy and the Problems of 'Knowing the Future' -- 2. The Temporalities of Modern Central Banking: Using the Future to Escape the Fetters of the Present -- 3. What 'Futures' Does Future-Oriented Monetary Policy Govern - and How?.

4. Conclusion: Why Standardizing the Future Increases Uncertainties -- References -- Social Interaction, Emotion, and Economic Forecasting -- 1. Introduction -- 1.1. The Field: Economic Forecasters in German-Speaking Countries -- 2. Interaction and the Future -- 2.1. Mental Time Traveling and Foretalk -- 3. Interaction and Economic Forecasting -- 3.1. Interaction and Econometrics -- 3.2. Patterns of External Interaction -- 3.3. Patterns of Internal Interaction -- 4. Emotion and Scientific Reasoning -- 4.1. Emotions in Economic Forecasting -- 4.2. Emotion as Epistemic Resource -- 5. Conclusion -- References -- The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting 1 -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Shifting the Focus from Outcomes to Processes -- 3. Data and Material -- 4. Are Predictions Predictable? Forecasting as a Sequence -- 5. What Is Updating? The Informational Grounds of Forecasts Revisions -- 6. Discussion and Conclusion -- Appendix A: Forecasts Publication Date -- Appendix B: Panel Overview -- References -- Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Survey -- 3. Empirical Results -- 3.1. Responses to Pre-Formulated Statements -- 3.2. Answers to Free Questions -- 3.3. Evidence from Probability Models -- 4. Decoupling of Academia and Macroeconomic Forecasting Camp -- 5. Conclusion -- References.