Perspectives on warm conveyor belts : : sensitivities to ensemble configuration and the role for forecast error / / Moritz Pickl.

• VerfasserIn: Pickl, Moritz,
• Place / Publishing House: Karlsruhe : : KIT Scientific Publishing,, 2023.
• Year of Publication: 2023
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (xiii, 214 pages)

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are weather systems that substantially modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. As they can amplify forecast errors and project them onto the Rossby wave pattern, they are of high relevance for numerical weather prediction. This work elaborates on two aspects of WCBs in the context of ensemble forecasts: (1) sensitivities of WCBs to the representation of initial condition and model uncertainties, and (2) the role of WCBs for forecast error growth.

Table of Contents

Introduction -- 1 -- Background and Research Questions -- 5 -- Data and Methods -- 29 -- The impact of ensemble configuration on rapidly ascending air streams -- 55 -- Impacts through stochastic perturbations -- 105 -- The role of WCBs for forecast error growth -- 139 -- Conclusions -- 171 -- Appendix for Chapter3 -- 181 -- Appendix for Chapter4 -- 183 -- Appendix for Chapter5 -- 185 -- Appendix for Chapter6 -- 187 -- Bibliography -- 193 -- Acknowledgements -- 213 -- Copyright.