The Iraq effect : : the Middle East after the Iraq War / / Frederic Wehrey ... [et al.].

• TeilnehmendeR: Wehrey, Frederic M.
• Year of Publication: 2010
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (217 p.)
• Notes: Description based upon print version of record.

Regardless of its outcome, the Iraq War has had a transformative effect on the Middle East. To equip U.S. policymakers to better manage the war's long-term consequences, the authors analyzed its effects on the regional balance of power, local perceptions of U.S. credibility, the domestic stabil...

Table of Contents

• Cover; Preface; Contents; Figures and Table; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE - Introduction; The Effects of the Iraq Conflict Range Broadly; Previous Analyses Have Not Captured the Full Implications of These Shifts; The Future Trajectory of Iraq Will Not Significantly Alter Our Analyses of Current Regional Trends; The U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense Must Anticipate and Prepare for These New Realities; This Monograph Surveys the Multiple Dimensions of the Iraq Effect; Organization of This Monograph
• Our Research Methodology Is Grounded in Primary Sources and Fieldwork CHAPTER TWO - An Altered Strategic Landscape: The Shifting Regional Balance of Power; Traditional Balance-of-Power Dynamics Are Shifting to Non-Arab States; The Rise of Iran: The Big Winner of the Iraq Conflict?; The Arab Response: More Hedging Than Balancing; The Two Faces of Iran in the Arab World; Suspicion of Iran Does Not Necessarily Translate into Pro-American Positions; Regional Ambivalence Toward Both Iran and the United States Undermines U.S. Attempts to Create an Anti-Iranian Alliance
• The Iraq War Has Reinforced and Created Strategic Challenges for Israel Iran Has Become Israel's Key Regional Concern; Potential Instability in Jordan Is a Further Concern; Israeli Views on an American Withdrawal Hinge on Perceptions About Whether a Withdrawal Will Strengthen or Weaken U.S.Regional Influence; The Iraq War Has Complicated Turkey's Strategic Relations with the United States and Iran; The Conflict Exacerbated the Kurdish Challenge for Turkey; The Conflict Has Led Turkey Toward Greater Regional Activism and More Cooperation with Iran
• Turkey's Economic Interests Provide Opportunities for Convergence with U.S. Interests Conclusion; CHAPTER THREE - New Challenges to American Influence: Chinese and Russian Roles in the Middle East; Perceptions of Eroding U.S. Credibility; Changing Extraregional Roles; China; Russia; Conclusion; CHAPTER FOUR - Domestic Reverberations of the War: Internal Challenges to Regime Stability; The Iraq War Is Not the Main Driver of Increased Sectarian Tensions; Sectarianism Has Spread in the Gulf, but Regimes Are Mostly to Blame
• Fears of Sunni-to-Shi'a Conversions Suggest Deeper Problems in the Levant and Egypt Local Dynamics, Not Iraq, Drive Most Sectarian Strife in Lebanon; Tribalism in Iraq May Animate Tribal Activism in Neighboring States; Developments in Iraq Have Inspired Kurdish Ambitions in Turkey, Syria, and Iran; Iraqi Refugees Present One of the Most Significant Long-Term Challenges; Conclusion: The Iraq War May Ultimately Strengthen Neighboring Regimes but Not the State; CHAPTER FIVE - The Iraq War and the Future of Terrorism: Lessons Learned and New Strategic Trends
• Existing Reports Present Contradictory Evidence on the Net Effects of the Iraq War