The Iraq effect : the Middle East after the Iraq War / / Frederic Wehrey ... [et al.].

• TeilnehmendeR: Wehrey, Frederic M.
• Year of Publication: 2010
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (217 p.)
• Notes: Description based upon print version of record.

Regardless of its outcome, the Iraq War has had a transformative effect on the Middle East. To equip U.S. policymakers to better manage the war's long-term consequences, the authors analyzed its effects on the regional balance of power, local perceptions of U.S. credibility, the domestic stability of neighboring states, and trends in terrorism after conducting extensive interviews in the region and drawing from an array of local media sources.

Table of Contents

Cover; Preface; Contents; Figures and Table; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE - Introduction; The Effects of the Iraq Conflict Range Broadly; Previous Analyses Have Not Captured the Full Implications of These Shifts; The Future Trajectory of Iraq Will Not Significantly Alter Our Analyses of Current Regional Trends; The U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense Must Anticipate and Prepare for These New Realities; This Monograph Surveys the Multiple Dimensions of the Iraq Effect; Organization of This Monograph

Our Research Methodology Is Grounded in Primary Sources and Fieldwork CHAPTER TWO - An Altered Strategic Landscape: The Shifting Regional Balance of Power; Traditional Balance-of-Power Dynamics Are Shifting to Non-Arab States; The Rise of Iran: The Big Winner of the Iraq Conflict?; The Arab Response: More Hedging Than Balancing; The Two Faces of Iran in the Arab World; Suspicion of Iran Does Not Necessarily Translate into Pro-American Positions; Regional Ambivalence Toward Both Iran and the United States Undermines U.S. Attempts to Create an Anti-Iranian Alliance

The Iraq War Has Reinforced and Created Strategic Challenges for Israel Iran Has Become Israel's Key Regional Concern; Potential Instability in Jordan Is a Further Concern; Israeli Views on an American Withdrawal Hinge on Perceptions About Whether a Withdrawal Will Strengthen or Weaken U.S.Regional Influence; The Iraq War Has Complicated Turkey's Strategic Relations with the United States and Iran; The Conflict Exacerbated the Kurdish Challenge for Turkey; The Conflict Has Led Turkey Toward Greater Regional Activism and More Cooperation with Iran

Turkey's Economic Interests Provide Opportunities for Convergence with U.S. Interests Conclusion; CHAPTER THREE - New Challenges to American Influence: Chinese and Russian Roles in the Middle East; Perceptions of Eroding U.S. Credibility; Changing Extraregional Roles; China; Russia; Conclusion; CHAPTER FOUR - Domestic Reverberations of the War: Internal Challenges to Regime Stability; The Iraq War Is Not the Main Driver of Increased Sectarian Tensions; Sectarianism Has Spread in the Gulf, but Regimes Are Mostly to Blame

Fears of Sunni-to-Shi'a Conversions Suggest Deeper Problems in the Levant and Egypt Local Dynamics, Not Iraq, Drive Most Sectarian Strife in Lebanon; Tribalism in Iraq May Animate Tribal Activism in Neighboring States; Developments in Iraq Have Inspired Kurdish Ambitions in Turkey, Syria, and Iran; Iraqi Refugees Present One of the Most Significant Long-Term Challenges; Conclusion: The Iraq War May Ultimately Strengthen Neighboring Regimes but Not the State; CHAPTER FIVE - The Iraq War and the Future of Terrorism: Lessons Learned and New Strategic Trends

Existing Reports Present Contradictory Evidence on the Net Effects of the Iraq War