Coping with Iran : confrontation, containment, or engagement? : a conference report / / James Dobbins, Sarah Harting, Dalia Dassa Kaye.

• Superior document: Conference proceedings
• Author: Rand Corporation.; Dobbins, James, 1942-
• TeilnehmendeR: Harting, Sarah.; Kaye, Dalia Dassa.; Rand Corporation.
• Year of Publication: 2007
• Language: English
• Series: Conference proceedings (Rand Corporation)
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (107 p.)
• Notes: "CF-237-NSRD"--P. [4] of cover.; Summary of a conference held by the RAND Corporation on Mar. 21, 2007 in Washington, D.C.

On March 21, 2007, the RAND Corporation held a public conference on Capitol Hill, "Coping with Iran: Confrontation, Containment, or Engagement?" featuring high-level experts and hosted by the director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center. More than 300 guests attended, including former ambassadors, members of Congress and senior staffers, senior journalists, Pentagon officials, and numerous well-known Middle East analysts. Two high-level officials, Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, and Ambassador Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iranian

Table of Contents

Cover; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; CONFERENCE SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; INTRODUCTION; PANEL 1: INSIDE IRAN; PANEL MEMBERS; ROLE OF THE REGIME; HOW THE UNITED STATES MAY MISPERCEIVE IRANIAN POLITICS: SIX OBSERVATIONS; AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, IRAN'S NUCLEAR "CARPET," AND IRAQ; Final Thoughts: The Iranian Populace and Two Ticking Clocks; THE REGIME: DISAGREEMENT AND DISCORD BUT ALSO CONSENSUS?; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's Trip to Turkey; 2. President Ahmadi-Nejad as a Political Liability

3. Statement by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 4. Russia's Decision to Suspend Cooperation at Bushehr; 5. U.S. Congress and Iranian Parliamentarians; 6. Effect of Civil Action on U.S. Foreign Policy; 7. 2003 Proposal for a Grand Bargain; 8. Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK); PANEL 2: LOOKING AT TWO ALTERNATIVE FUTURES; PANEL MEMBERS; IRAN, THE UNITED STATES, AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS: AN EXAMINATION OF KEY POLICY ISSUES; Iran's Motivations for Acquiring Nuclear Weapons; Iran's Conventional Forces; Iran's "Strategic Loneliness"; A Nuclear-Armed Iran?; An Attack on Iran; Policy Directions

FIVE KEY POINTS POWERFUL DRIVERS, RISKS, AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. Effectiveness of Security Guarantees; 2. Lessons from History and Unintended Consequences; 3. Consortium Proposal; 4. Israel and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; CLOSING STATEMENT; AN IRANIAN PERSPECTIVE; PRESENTER AND RESPONDERS; IRAN'S NATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT; Regional Stability and Security; Weapons of Mass Destruction; Resolving the Iranian Nuclear Crisis; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. UNSC Resolution; 2. A Two-Month Suspension of Enrichment--but What Next?

3. Legitimacy of the UNSC Resolution4. "Suspension for Suspension"; 5. Iran's Role in Iraq; 6. March 2006 Offer by the Supreme Leader; 7. Regional Involvement in Iraq; 8. Iranian Reaction to Russian Suspension of Bushehr; 9. Location of General Ali Reza Askari; 10. Israel and Iranians in Custody in Iraq; 11. The Population's Rights in Iran; 12. Goal of the Regional Ministerial Meeting; 13. Hizballah and Hamas; 14. Helping Iraq Despite a Continued U.S. Presence; 15. Iran's View of a Consortium; PANEL 3: WHAT TO DO: PREEMPTION? CONTAINMENT? ENGAGEMENT?; PANEL MEMBERS

IRAQ OR IRAN: WHICH COMES FIRST?ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY; ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTIES; WHERE TO NOW?; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. Iraq Study Group Report; 2. An Acceptable Outcome for Israel; 3. United States -- Aggressive Talk, but Carrying a Small Stick?; 4. Iran's Role in Iraq; 5. Should Congress Authorize the Use of Force?; 6. Lessons from Relations with China in the 1970's; 7. The IRGC and the Risk of Escalation; 8. The Role of Dissidents in Iran; A U.S. PERSPECTIVE; PRESENTER AND RESPONDERS; HOW THE U.S. GOVERNMENT VIEWS IRAN; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

1. The Key to Successful Negotiations