Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implications for force planning / / Jennifer Kavanagh.
Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent...
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| Year of Publication: | 2013 |
| Language: | English |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (77 p.) |
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Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? [electronic resource] : intervention timing and its implications for force planning / Jennifer Kavanagh. Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, 2013. 1 online resource (77 p.) text txt computer c online resource cr Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgements; Abbreviations; Chapter One: Introduction; Chapter Two: Defining Temporal Dependence: A Review of Existing Evidence; What Is Temporal Dependence?; What Does the Literature Say About Intervention Timing and Temporal Dependence?; Interventions and Timing; Predictors of Armed Conflict and Political Instability.; Temporal Dependence in Financial Markets; Summary; Chapter Three: Testing for Temporal Dependence; Methodology; Data and Operationalization; Interventions; Armed Conflict; Results What Drives Armed Conflict?Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Is There Temporal Dependence Between Military Deployments?; Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Chapter Four: Implications for Force Planning; Will Temporal Dependence Affect Force Requirements?; Mechanisms of Temporal Dependence; How Can Temporal Dependence Be Integrated into the Planning Process?; Assessing the Relevance of Temporal Clustering; Building Temporal Dependence into Force Planning; Avoiding Clustered Interventions; Chapter Five: Conclusion and Next Steps Bibliography Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent past. Integrating the concept of temporal dependence into DoD planning processes could help planners develop more appropriate force estimates. English "Prepared for the United States Army." "RAND Arroyo Center." Includes bibliographical references. Open access Unrestricted online access star Description based on print version record and CIP data provided by publisher; resource not viewed. Intervention (International law) Intervention (International law) Case studies. Military planning United States. United States Military policy Case studies. 0-8330-7901-8 Arroyo Center. |
| language |
English |
| format |
Electronic eBook |
| author |
Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- |
| spellingShingle |
Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? intervention timing and its implications for force planning / Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgements; Abbreviations; Chapter One: Introduction; Chapter Two: Defining Temporal Dependence: A Review of Existing Evidence; What Is Temporal Dependence?; What Does the Literature Say About Intervention Timing and Temporal Dependence?; Interventions and Timing; Predictors of Armed Conflict and Political Instability.; Temporal Dependence in Financial Markets; Summary; Chapter Three: Testing for Temporal Dependence; Methodology; Data and Operationalization; Interventions; Armed Conflict; Results What Drives Armed Conflict?Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Is There Temporal Dependence Between Military Deployments?; Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Chapter Four: Implications for Force Planning; Will Temporal Dependence Affect Force Requirements?; Mechanisms of Temporal Dependence; How Can Temporal Dependence Be Integrated into the Planning Process?; Assessing the Relevance of Temporal Clustering; Building Temporal Dependence into Force Planning; Avoiding Clustered Interventions; Chapter Five: Conclusion and Next Steps Bibliography |
| author_facet |
Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- Arroyo Center. Arroyo Center. |
| author_variant |
j k jk |
| author2 |
Arroyo Center. |
| author2_role |
TeilnehmendeR |
| author_corporate |
Arroyo Center. |
| author_sort |
Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- |
| title |
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? intervention timing and its implications for force planning / |
| title_sub |
intervention timing and its implications for force planning / |
| title_full |
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? [electronic resource] : intervention timing and its implications for force planning / Jennifer Kavanagh. |
| title_fullStr |
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? [electronic resource] : intervention timing and its implications for force planning / Jennifer Kavanagh. |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? [electronic resource] : intervention timing and its implications for force planning / Jennifer Kavanagh. |
| title_auth |
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? intervention timing and its implications for force planning / |
| title_new |
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? |
| title_sort |
are u.s. military interventions contagious over time? intervention timing and its implications for force planning / |
| publisher |
RAND Corporation, |
| publishDate |
2013 |
| physical |
1 online resource (77 p.) |
| contents |
Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgements; Abbreviations; Chapter One: Introduction; Chapter Two: Defining Temporal Dependence: A Review of Existing Evidence; What Is Temporal Dependence?; What Does the Literature Say About Intervention Timing and Temporal Dependence?; Interventions and Timing; Predictors of Armed Conflict and Political Instability.; Temporal Dependence in Financial Markets; Summary; Chapter Three: Testing for Temporal Dependence; Methodology; Data and Operationalization; Interventions; Armed Conflict; Results What Drives Armed Conflict?Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Is There Temporal Dependence Between Military Deployments?; Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Chapter Four: Implications for Force Planning; Will Temporal Dependence Affect Force Requirements?; Mechanisms of Temporal Dependence; How Can Temporal Dependence Be Integrated into the Planning Process?; Assessing the Relevance of Temporal Clustering; Building Temporal Dependence into Force Planning; Avoiding Clustered Interventions; Chapter Five: Conclusion and Next Steps Bibliography |
| isbn |
0-8330-7905-0 0-8330-7903-4 0-8330-7904-2 0-8330-7901-8 |
| callnumber-first |
U - Military Science |
| callnumber-subject |
U - General Military Science |
| callnumber-label |
U153 |
| callnumber-sort |
U 3153 K38 42013 |
| geographic |
United States Military policy Case studies. |
| genre_facet |
Case studies. |
| geographic_facet |
United States. United States |
| illustrated |
Not Illustrated |
| dewey-hundreds |
300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-tens |
350 - Public administration & military science |
| dewey-ones |
355 - Military science |
| dewey-full |
355/.033573 |
| dewey-sort |
3355 533573 |
| dewey-raw |
355/.033573 |
| dewey-search |
355/.033573 |
| oclc_num |
865329698 |
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