Catastrophes, confrontations, and constraints : : how disasters shape the dynamics of armed conflicts /

Catastrophes, confrontations, and constraints : : how disasters shape the dynamics of armed conflicts / / Tobias Ide.

A ground-breaking study on how natural disasters can escalate or defuse wars, insurgencies, and other strife. Armed conflict and disasters are two key challenges of the twenty-first century. The number of armed conflicts has never been higher since the end of World War II. At the same time, disaster...

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Bibliographic Details
VerfasserIn:
Ide, Tobias,
Place / Publishing House:Cambridge : : The MIT Press,, 2023
Year of Publication:2023
Edition:1st ed.
Language:English
Series:The MIT Press
Physical Description:1 online resource (334 pages)
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Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Title Page
  • Copyright
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • 1. Setting the Foundation: Disasters and Conflicts
  • Why Study Disasters and Armed Conflicts?
  • The Emergence of Disaster-Conflict Research
  • State of Knowledge
  • Contributions of This Study
  • Goal, Definitions, and Plan
  • 2. After the Disaster: Motives, Strategies, and Incentives for Conflict (De-)escalation
  • Grievances
  • Solidarity
  • Opportunity
  • Constraints
  • Costly Signal
  • Image Cultivation
  • Summary
  • 3. Cases, Conditions, and Qualitative Comparative Analysis
  • Sample of Cases
  • Data Collection and Analysis
  • Causal Conditions and Theoretical Expectations
  • 4. Disasters and Armed Conflict Dynamics: Evidence from 36 Cases
  • Cases of Conflict Escalation after Disasters
  • Bangladesh 1991: The Chittagong Hill Conflict after Cyclone Gorky
  • Colombia 1999: Shaking Grounds, Shaking the Peace Process?
  • Egypt 1994: Floods, Fire, and Fury
  • India (Andhra Pradesh and Orissa) 1999: The Cyclone as an Opportunity for Naxalite Insurgents
  • India (Assam) 1998: Floods, Recruitment Opportunities, and Conflict Persistence
  • Philippines 1990: Earthquake-Related Opportunities for Both Sides
  • Sri Lanka 2004: Wave of Violence?
  • Tajikistan 1992: Independence, Civil War, and Floods
  • Uganda 1999-2001: Drought, Food Insecurity, and Raids
  • Cases of Conflict De-escalation after Disasters
  • Bangladesh 2007: Cyclone Sidr and the Maoist Insurgency
  • Burundi 2005-2006: Drought, Democratization, and the Peace Process
  • India (Kashmir) 2005: Cross-Border Constraints in the Face of an Earthquake
  • Indonesia 2004: Wave of Peace?
  • Myanmar 2008: The Karen Conflict after Cyclone Nargis
  • Pakistan 2010: Floods Facilitating Conflict De-escalation
  • Somalia 1997: Flood in the Midst of Chaos
  • Somalia 2010-2011: Drought and Famine in a Fragile Country.
  • Turkey 1999: Öcalan's Capture, the Marmara Earthquake, and the PKK's Cease-Fire
  • Cases with No Disaster Impact on Conflict Dynamics
  • Afghanistan 1998: Remote Earthquakes Did Not Shape Conflict Dynamics
  • Afghanistan 2008: Freezing the Conflict?
  • Algeria 2003: Grievances and Opportunities after the Boumerdès Earthquake
  • India (Assam) 2007: The ULFA's Inability to Exploit Flood-Related Opportunities
  • Indonesia 1992: No Link between the Flores Earthquake and the East Timor Conflict
  • Indonesia 2006: Disaster in Yogyarkata, De-escalation in Aceh?
  • Iran 1990: The Kurdish Struggle after the Manjil-Rudbar Earthquake
  • Iran 1997: The MEK Insurgency and the Qayen Earthquake
  • Nepal 1996: Correlation but No Causation between Floods and Armed Conflict Escalation
  • Pakistan 2005: Escalation after, but Not Related to the Kashmir Earthquake
  • Pakistan 2015: Turning On the Heat, Turning Off the Conflict?
  • Peru 2007: High-Intensity Earthquake, Low-Intensity Conflict
  • Philippines 1991: Storm, Flood, and Conflict De-escalation
  • Philippines 2013: Super Typhoon, but Few Conflict Implications
  • Philippines 2012: No Link between Typhoon and Conflict Escalation
  • Russia 1995: The Sakhalin Earthquake and the Conflict in Chechnya-Too Far Apart
  • Russia 2010: Triple Disaster Not Linked to Conflict De-escalation
  • Thailand 2004: Tsunami and Conflict Escalation-Correlation but No Causation
  • Summary
  • 5. Armed Conflicts in the Aftermath of Disasters: Key Findings
  • General Findings and Their Implications
  • Armed Conflict Escalation, De-escalation, and Continuation
  • Motive
  • Strategy
  • Communication
  • Disaster Types and Conflict Dynamics
  • When Do Disasters Have an Impact on Conflict Dynamics?
  • Escalation or De-escalation after a Disaster?
  • Summary
  • 6. Conflict Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic
  • The COVID-19 Disaster.
  • The Islamic State Conflict in Iraq
  • The Taliban Conflict in Afghanistan
  • The Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria
  • The Conflict between the CPP/NPA and the Philippine Government
  • Discussion
  • 7. Conclusion
  • Key Findings and Their Implications
  • Where Is the Future?
  • Lessons for Practice and Policy
  • Final Considerations
  • References
  • Index.

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