Catastrophes, confrontations, and constraints : : how disasters shape the dynamics of armed conflicts / / Tobias Ide.

• VerfasserIn: Ide, Tobias,
• Place / Publishing House: Cambridge : : The MIT Press,, 2023
• Year of Publication: 2023
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: The MIT Press
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (334 pages)

A ground-breaking study on how natural disasters can escalate or defuse wars, insurgencies, and other strife. Armed conflict and disasters are two key challenges of the twenty-first century. The number of armed conflicts has never been higher since the end of World War II. At the same time, disasters have increased in frequency and intensity over the past two decades due to climate change, urbanization, and persistent inequalities. Providing the first comprehensive analysis of the interplay of natural disasters and armed conflict, this book offers an incisive analysis that explains whether, how, and in which contexts disasters facilitate the escalation or de-escalation of armed conflicts -- as well as whether, how, and in which contexts combatants exploit or fail to exploit these catastrophes. Tobias Ide begins by laying out a comprehensive framework that explains the link between disasters and the (de-)escalation of armed conflict. From there, he presents 36 case studies of earthquakes, droughts, floods and storms in Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. He also covers the implications of COVID-19 on armed conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and the Philippines. Finally, he combines qualitative insights with quantitative data in a unique multi-method design to analyze when disasters facilitate the intensification or de-escalation of civil wars. Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints adds a wealth of invaluable evidence to current debates on climate change, environmental stress, and security, while providing professionals and students with timely data for their own investigations.

Table of Contents

Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1. Setting the Foundation: Disasters and Conflicts -- Why Study Disasters and Armed Conflicts? -- The Emergence of Disaster-Conflict Research -- State of Knowledge -- Contributions of This Study -- Goal, Definitions, and Plan -- 2. After the Disaster: Motives, Strategies, and Incentives for Conflict (De-)escalation -- Grievances -- Solidarity -- Opportunity -- Constraints -- Costly Signal -- Image Cultivation -- Summary -- 3. Cases, Conditions, and Qualitative Comparative Analysis -- Sample of Cases -- Data Collection and Analysis -- Causal Conditions and Theoretical Expectations -- 4. Disasters and Armed Conflict Dynamics: Evidence from 36 Cases -- Cases of Conflict Escalation after Disasters -- Bangladesh 1991: The Chittagong Hill Conflict after Cyclone Gorky -- Colombia 1999: Shaking Grounds, Shaking the Peace Process? -- Egypt 1994: Floods, Fire, and Fury -- India (Andhra Pradesh and Orissa) 1999: The Cyclone as an Opportunity for Naxalite Insurgents -- India (Assam) 1998: Floods, Recruitment Opportunities, and Conflict Persistence -- Philippines 1990: Earthquake-Related Opportunities for Both Sides -- Sri Lanka 2004: Wave of Violence? -- Tajikistan 1992: Independence, Civil War, and Floods -- Uganda 1999-2001: Drought, Food Insecurity, and Raids -- Cases of Conflict De-escalation after Disasters -- Bangladesh 2007: Cyclone Sidr and the Maoist Insurgency -- Burundi 2005-2006: Drought, Democratization, and the Peace Process -- India (Kashmir) 2005: Cross-Border Constraints in the Face of an Earthquake -- Indonesia 2004: Wave of Peace? -- Myanmar 2008: The Karen Conflict after Cyclone Nargis -- Pakistan 2010: Floods Facilitating Conflict De-escalation -- Somalia 1997: Flood in the Midst of Chaos -- Somalia 2010-2011: Drought and Famine in a Fragile Country.

Turkey 1999: Öcalan's Capture, the Marmara Earthquake, and the PKK's Cease-Fire -- Cases with No Disaster Impact on Conflict Dynamics -- Afghanistan 1998: Remote Earthquakes Did Not Shape Conflict Dynamics -- Afghanistan 2008: Freezing the Conflict? -- Algeria 2003: Grievances and Opportunities after the Boumerdès Earthquake -- India (Assam) 2007: The ULFA's Inability to Exploit Flood-Related Opportunities -- Indonesia 1992: No Link between the Flores Earthquake and the East Timor Conflict -- Indonesia 2006: Disaster in Yogyarkata, De-escalation in Aceh? -- Iran 1990: The Kurdish Struggle after the Manjil-Rudbar Earthquake -- Iran 1997: The MEK Insurgency and the Qayen Earthquake -- Nepal 1996: Correlation but No Causation between Floods and Armed Conflict Escalation -- Pakistan 2005: Escalation after, but Not Related to the Kashmir Earthquake -- Pakistan 2015: Turning On the Heat, Turning Off the Conflict? -- Peru 2007: High-Intensity Earthquake, Low-Intensity Conflict -- Philippines 1991: Storm, Flood, and Conflict De-escalation -- Philippines 2013: Super Typhoon, but Few Conflict Implications -- Philippines 2012: No Link between Typhoon and Conflict Escalation -- Russia 1995: The Sakhalin Earthquake and the Conflict in Chechnya-Too Far Apart -- Russia 2010: Triple Disaster Not Linked to Conflict De-escalation -- Thailand 2004: Tsunami and Conflict Escalation-Correlation but No Causation -- Summary -- 5. Armed Conflicts in the Aftermath of Disasters: Key Findings -- General Findings and Their Implications -- Armed Conflict Escalation, De-escalation, and Continuation -- Motive -- Strategy -- Communication -- Disaster Types and Conflict Dynamics -- When Do Disasters Have an Impact on Conflict Dynamics? -- Escalation or De-escalation after a Disaster? -- Summary -- 6. Conflict Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic -- The COVID-19 Disaster.

The Islamic State Conflict in Iraq -- The Taliban Conflict in Afghanistan -- The Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria -- The Conflict between the CPP/NPA and the Philippine Government -- Discussion -- 7. Conclusion -- Key Findings and Their Implications -- Where Is the Future? -- Lessons for Practice and Policy -- Final Considerations -- References -- Index.