The elections in Israel 2019-2021 / / edited by Michal Shamir and Gideon Rahat.

• Superior document: Routledge Elections in Israel Ser.
• TeilnehmendeR: Shamir, Michal, 1951-; Rahaṭ, Gidʻon,
• Place / Publishing House: London, England ;, New York, New York : : Routledge,, [2023]; ©2023
• Year of Publication: 2023
• Language: English
• Series: Routledge Elections in Israel Ser.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (307 pages)

This chapter examines the social dynamics of projections about the outcomes and implications of the repeated elections in Israel. Based on a combination of a panel survey and focus groups, we analyze citizens’ evolving predictions regarding the expected largest party, the next prime minister, the coalition composition, and the future of Israel more generally. Introducing a conceptual framework that breaks political projections into several constituent elements, we study what probabilities and evaluations people assign to their predictions, how they explain them, and what their implications are for political participation. We show that despite the deepening political crisis, Israeli citizens’ political optimism did not decrease during the three 2019–2020 election campaigns. Furthermore, we find an important link between intention to vote and the expected level of happiness about the predicted outcomes. Based on these findings, we argue that persistent optimism is one explanation for the higher voter turnout in each round of elections. In the epilogue we consider additional insights from the 2021 election, which saw a reversal in voters’ growing optimism and turnout, but which eventually fulfilled hopes of the anti-Netanyahu camp for political change.

Table of Contents

Cover -- Endorsement -- Half Title -- Series Information -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Contributors -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1 Four Elections in Two Years: A Unique Crisis Or a Sign of Things to Come? -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Explanations for the Crisis: Why Were Four Elections Held in Two Years? -- 1.3 Participation, Competition, and Voting in the Four Elections -- 1.4 Party Decline, Personalization, and the Party System -- 1.5 Institutional Reform: The Rotation Government and the "Norwegian Law" -- 1.6 The 2019-2021 Elections and the Crisis of Democracy in Israel -- 1.7 Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- 2 The Four Elections 2019-2021: A Chronological Overview -- 2.1 The Elections to the 21st Knesset, April 9, 2019 -- 2.2 The Elections to the 22nd Knesset, September 17, 2019 -- 2.3 The Elections to the 23rd Knesset, March 2, 2020 -- 2.4 The Elections to the 24th Knesset, March 23, 2021 -- Notes -- References -- Part 1 Personalization in the Israeli "Parteienstaat" -- 3 Personalization and Personalism in the 2019-2021 Elections: Another Climax of Personal Politics? -- 3.1 Conceptualization, Research Question, and Hypothesis -- 3.2 Methodology -- 3.2.1 The Institutional Arena -- 3.2.2 The Media Arena -- 3.2.3 The Behavioral Arena -- 3.3 Findings: A New Highpoint in Personal Politics -- 3.3.1 Institutional Personalization and Personalism -- 3.3.2 Personalism in the Media -- 3.3.3 Behavioral Personalization and Personalism -- 3.4 Summary and Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- 4 King Bibi: The Personification of Democratic Values in the 2019-2021 Election Cycle -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Public Support for Democracy - Israel From a Global Perspective -- 4.3 Personification of Democratic Values -- 4.4 Hypotheses -- 4.5 Data and Measurement -- 4.6 Analysis.

4.6.1 Democratic Values in the 2019-2021 Election Cycle -- 4.6.2 Personification of Democratic Values -- 4.7 Conclusion -- Notes -- 5 A Populist Leader Under Neoliberal Logic -- 5.1 Generational Change in Israel's Right Wing -- 5.2 A Decline of the Old Statism and the Rise of Neoliberal Logic -- 5.3 The 2019-2021 Elections -- 5.3.1 Netanyahu's Claim, and How He Made His Case -- 5.3.2 Populism and Neoliberalism in the Service of Netanyahu -- 5.3.3 "Us and Them" -- 5.3.4 Identity Politics in the Service of Netanyahu's Populism -- 5.3.5 "Sour [Pickles] Theory" as a Leadership Principle -- 5.3.6 The Fourth Campaign as a Continuation of the Populist Pattern Under Neoliberal Logic -- 5.4 Instead of a Summary: Hobbes, Locke, Netanyahu, and Israeli Society -- 5.5 Epilogue -- Notes -- References -- 6 Netanyahu and the Very Short History of the "Right-Wing Bloc" -- 6.1 Conceptual Framework: Support for a Defendant and the Nexus of Democracy, Populism, and Political Economy -- 6.2 Netanyahu and the Legal System: Statist (Mamlachtit) Rhetoric and an Ambivalent Attitude Toward the Courts -- 6.3 The Cases Against Netanyahu -- 6.4 The Cases Against Netanyahu, the Election Campaigns, and the Formation of the Right-Wing-Religious Bloc: The Objections to the Trial as a Battle "For Democracy" -- 6.4.1 Toward the April 2019 Election -- 6.4.2 Toward the September 2019 Election -- 6.4.3 Toward the March 2020 Election -- 6.4.4 The Netanyahu-Gantz Government and the March 2021 Election -- 6.5 Discussion and Conclusions -- Note -- References -- 7 Public and Legal Responsibility of Senior Elected Representatives in the Executive Branch: Benjamin Netanyahu as a Case Study -- 7.1 Background -- 7.2 Public Responsibility -- 7.3 From Ginossar to Deri-Pinhasi, Rochberger-Gapso, and Netanyahu: Supreme Court Decisions On Holding Public Office Under Criminal Indictment.

7.3.1 High Court of Justice (HCJ) Case - Ginossar (1993) -- 7.3.2 Deri-Pinhasi Doctrine (1993) -- 7.3.3 HCJ Case - Mayors Rochberger and Gapso (2013) -- 7.3.4 Existing Law and HCJ Netanyahu (2020) -- 7.4 Parliamentary Oversight -- 7.5 The Dangers of a Sitting Prime Minister Under Criminal Indictment -- 7.6 The Ideal Law -- 7.7 Conclusions -- Notes -- References -- Part 2 Voters, Parties, and the Media -- 8 Persistent Optimism Under Political Uncertainty: The Evolution of Citizens' Election Projections During a Protracted Political Crisis -- 8.1 Political Projections: A Conceptual Framework -- 8.2 Methods -- 8.3 Evolution of the Elements of Political Projections Across the 2019-2020 Elections -- 8.3.1 Predicted State -- 8.3.2 Probability -- 8.3.3 Evaluation -- 8.3.4 Anchors -- 8.3.5 Behavioral Implications -- 8.4 The Interplay of Projection Elements: Optimistic Expectations -- 8.4.1 Expectations and Evaluations: Wishful Thinking -- 8.4.2 Probabilities and Anchors: The Bases for Optimism -- 8.4.3 Implications of Positive Expectations for Political Participation -- 8.5 Summary and Discussion -- 8.6 Epilogue: The 2021 Election -- Notes -- Methodological Appendix -- Panel Survey -- Focus Groups -- Procedure -- 9 Ethnic Demons and Class Specters: Ethnic and Class Voting in Israel Revisited -- 9.1 Ethnic Class Or Ideological Voting -- 9.2 Ethnic Voting in Israel: Review and Hypotheses -- 9.3 Data and Method -- 9.4 Analysis and Findings -- 9.5 Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- 10 Joint Lists in Israeli Politics -- 10.1 Theoretical and Comparative Background -- 10.1.1 Pre-Electoral Coalitions -- 10.1.2 Factors Contributing to the Formation of Joint Lists -- 10.1.3 Implications for the Political System -- 10.2 Joint Lists in Israel - Legal, Institutional, and Historical Background -- 10.2.1 Legal Background -- 10.2.2 Institutional Rules.

10.2.3 Joint Lists and the Crisis of Political Parties -- 10.3 Research Questions and Hypotheses -- 10.4 An Empirical Study of Joint Lists in Israel -- 10.4.1 The Scope of the Phenomenon -- 10.4.2 Which Parties Join Or Create Joint Lists? -- 10.4.3 Stability and Continuity of Joint Lists -- 10.5 Summary of Findings -- 10.5.1 Summary -- 10.5.2 Spotlight On the 2019-2021 Elections -- 10.6 Discussion -- Notes -- References -- 11 The Arab Electorate and Parties, 2019-2021: Toward a Non-Zionist Israeli Identity? -- 11.1 Conceptual Framework -- 11.2 The Establishment of the Joint List -- 11.3 The Breakup of the Joint List and the April 2019 Election -- 11.4 The Return of the Joint List in the September 2019 and March 2020 Elections -- 11.5 Public Opinion, Voter Turnout, The Campaign and the Formation of the Rotation Government of Netanyahu and Gantz -- 11.6 The Breakup of the Joint List and the March 2021 Election -- 11.7 Discussion and Summary -- Notes -- References -- 12 Three in a (Right-Wing) Boat: Media, Politicians, and the Public in the Age of Digital Communication -- 12.1 The Citizens: Voicing Their Priorities -- 12.2 The Media: Tuned to the Citizens -- 12.3 Politicians: Even More Tuned to the Citizens -- 12.4 Issue Agendas in Israeli Politics -- 12.5 Method -- 12.5.1 Media Agenda -- 12.5.2 Public Agenda -- 12.5.3 Politicians' Agenda -- 12.6 Results -- 12.6.1 Issue Congruence Across the Three Actors -- 12.6.2 Trends in Issue Priorities Across the Four Elections -- 12.7 Discussion -- Notes -- References -- Index.