Large risks with low probabilities : : perceptions and willingness to take preventive measures against flooding / / edited by Tadeusz Tyszka and Piotr Zielonka.

• TeilnehmendeR: Zielonka, Piotr,; Tyszka, Tadeusz,
• Place / Publishing House: London, England : : IWA Publishing,, 2017.; ©2017
• Year of Publication: 2017
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (230 pages) :; illustrations

This volume contains studies of one particular category of risky situations, namely, those involving highly negative consequences with low probabilities. Situations of this type involve both natural and man-made disasters (e.g. floods, technological hazards, economic crises, epidemics, etc.). Such r...

Table of Contents

• Cover
• Copyright
• Contents
• Preface
• About the Editors
• Chapter 1: Psychological reactions to environmental hazards
• 1.1 Why Study Psychological Reactions to Environmental Hazards?
• 1.2 Environmental Cues, Social Cues, Warnings, and Predecisional Information Search
• 1.3 Perception of Environmental Threats
• 1.3.1 The difference between expert and lay conceptions of risk
• 1.3.2 Risk and emotion
• 1.3.3 Problems with the perception of probabilities
• 1.4 Decision-Making
• 1.4.1 Determinants of protective actions and insurance decisions
• References
• Chapter 2: Are people interested in probabilities of natural disasters?
• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Method
• 2.2.1 Subjects
• 2.2.2 Decision scenarios
• 2.2.3 Experimental procedure
• 2.3 Results
• 2.3.1 Data classification
• 2.3.2 Hypothesis testing
• 2.4 Discussion
• Acknowledgements
• References
• Appendices
• Appendix A: Experimental scenarios
• Appendix B: Virus infection scenario (warm-up task) from Bär and Huber (2008)
• Appendix C: Choice list for the Holt and Laury (2002) task
• Appendix D: Question for general risk taking assessment
• Appendix E: Significance of Mann-Whitney U statistics (all tests are one-sided)
• Appendix F: Statistics by gender (means are weighted by the corresponding group sizes)
• Chapter 3: Overweighting versus underweighting of small probabilities
• 3.1 Underweighting and Overweighting of Small Probabilities
• 3.2 When do People Tend to Overweight Small Probabilities?
• 3.3 When do People Underweight Small Probabilities?
• 3.4 'Decisions from Description' versus 'Decisions from Experience'
• 3.5 Explanations of the Description-Experience Gap
• 3.5.1 Sampling bias
• 3.5.2 Switching behavior
• 3.5.3 The recency effect
• 3.5.4 The mere-presentation effect.
• 3.6 The Probability Weighting Function: How to Communicate Probabilities
• 3.7 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 4: The communication of probabilistic information
• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Probability Formats
• 4.2.1 Numerical probability formats
• 4.2.2 Graphical probability formats
• 4.2.3 Verbal probability information
• 4.3 Displaying Probability Information in a Sequential Format: An Empirical Verification
• 4.4 Experiments 1 and 2: Comparing a Sequential Display Format with Other Probability Formats
• 4.4.1 The research goal
• 4.4.2 Method
• 4.4.3 Experiment 1 - results
• 4.4.4 Experiment 2 - results
• 4.5 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 5: The role of emotions in forming judgements about risks
• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.1.1 Risk perception
• 5.1.2 Hazards and emotions
• 5.1.3 The study's aim
• 5.2 Method
• 5.2.1 Participants
• 5.2.2 Materials and procedure
• 5.3 Results
• 5.3.1 The structure of emotional reactions and risk judgements
• 5.3.2 Mediation analyses
• 5.4 Conclusions
• References
• Appendices
• Appendix A: Experimental scenarios
• Appendix B: Compensation
• Appendix C: Pearson correlation coefficients for relationships between different emotions
• Appendix D: Pearson correlation coefficients for relationships between negative affect and specific emotion factors
• Appendix E: Summary of mediation analyses results
• Chapter 6: What determines willingness to take preventive actions in areas experiencing severe flooding?
• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Method
• 6.3 Results
• 6.3.1 How did inhabitants of the areas exposed to flood hazards perceive the threat?
• 6.3.2 Determinants of willingness to take preventive actions against flood hazard
• 6.4 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 7: Cognitive and emotional factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster
• 7.1 Introduction.
• 7.1.1 Cognitive factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster
• 7.1.2 Emotional factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster
• 7.1.3 The role of personal experience in the propensity to insure oneself against disaster
• 7.1.4 Overview of the present study and hypotheses
• 7.2 Experiment 1
• 7.2.1 Method
• 7.2.2 Results
• 7.2.3 Discussion
• 7.3 Experiment 2
• 7.3.1 Method
• 7.3.2 Results
• 7.3.3 Discussion
• 7.4 Experiment 3
• 7.4.1 Method
• 7.4.2 Results
• 7.4.3 Discussion
• 7.5 Conclusions
• Acknowledgements
• References
• Appendix
• Chapter 8: Peer effects in catastrophic risk insurance take-up
• 8.1 Introduction
• 8.2 Peer Effects: Mechanisms
• 8.3 Peer Effects: Empirical Studies
• 8.4 Experimental Study: Design and Methodology
• 8.4.1 General set-up
• 8.4.2 Treatments
• 8.4.3 Lab details
• 8.4.4 Predictions
• 8.5 Experimental Study: Results
• 8.6 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 9: The illusion of safety: its existence, forms and remedies
• 9.1 Introduction
• 9.2 Study 1: The Illusion of Safety in the Laboratory
• 9.2.1 Participants
• 9.2.2 Procedure, scenarios and questions
• 9.2.3 Results
• 9.3 Study 2: The Illusion of Safety in the Field
• 9.3.1 The participant sample
• 9.3.2 Method and questionnaire
• 9.3.3 Results
• 9.4 Conclusions
• Acknowledgements
• References
• Appendix
• Chapter 10: Education and information as a basis for flood risk management - practical issues
• 10.1 Why Flood Education?
• 10.2 Actors in the Flood Risk Education and Communication Process
• 10.2.1 Broadcasters
• 10.2.2 Communication intermediaries
• 10.2.3 Receivers
• 10.3 Objectives of Flood-Related Education
• 10.4 Content of Flood-Related Education
• 10.4.1 Main characteristics of flood hazard
• 10.4.2 Knowledge of local causes of floods.
• 10.4.3 Flood risk reduction measures
• 10.5 Problems of Particular Importance
• 10.5.1 Responsibility for safety
• 10.5.2 Illusion of safety
• 10.5.3 Communication of risk
• 10.6 Facilitating Access to Important Information on Flood Risk
• 10.6.1 Improving the transfer of basic information
• 10.6.2 Providing people with guidebooks, brochures, and manuals addressed to vulnerable constituencies
• 10.6.3 Supporting social action and grassroots initiatives
• 10.7 Instruments Strengthening the Flood-Related Education System
• 10.8 Conclusions
• References
• Author Index
• Subject Index.