Classification and clustering in business cycle analysis / Ullrich Heilemann and Claus Weihs (eds.).

• Superior document: RWI Schriften, Heft 79
• Author: Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Essen.; Weihs, Claus
• TeilnehmendeR: Heilemann, Ullrich.; Weihs, Claus.; Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Essen.; Universität Dortmund. Fachbereich Statistik.
• Year of Publication: 2007
• Language: English
• Series: RWI Schriften ; Heft 79.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (168 p.)
• Notes: Conference papers.

Hauptbeschreibung The analysis of cyclical macroeconomic phenomena is an important field of econometric research. In the recent past, research interests have de-emphasized quantitative forecasting exercises and have addressed the qualitative diagnosis of the relative stance of the economy regarding...

Table of Contents

• Preface; Contents; Ullrich Heilemann and Claus Weihs: Introduction; References; Victor Zarnowitz: Phases and Stages of Recent U.S. Business Cycles; 1. Introduction; 2. Growth Cycles and Business Cycles; 3. Stages of Expansion and Contraction; 4. Applicability to U.S. Postwar Expansions; 5. Applicability to U.S. Postwar Contractions; 6. An Extension to the Last Recession; 7. Conclusion; References; Ullrich Heilemann and Heinz Josef Münch: The U.S. Business Cycle and its Phases 1948-2000; 1. Introduction; 2. Re-examining Meyer/Weinberg; 3. Stability of Meyer/Weinberg's Results
• 3.1 A Four-phase Classification for 1973 to 20003.2 New Sample Performance of the M/W Scheme; 3.3 Outside Sample Performance; 3.4 Stability of the M/W-Scheme in the New Sample; 4. Summary and Conclusions; References; Appendix: Linear Discriminant Analysis; Claus Weihs and Ursula Garczarek: Stability of Multivariate Representation of Business Cycles over Time; 1. Introduction; 2. Data; 3. Classification of Business Cycle Phases; 4. Classification Methods and Classification Rules; 5. Double Leave-one-cycle-out Cross Validation; 6. Classification Results and Resulting Models
• 4. Aspekte verschiedener Trendbereinigungsverfahren5. Beispiele zur unterschiedlichen Wendepunktdatierung; 6. Zykluskonzept und Erklärungsansätze; 7. Fazit; Literatur; Anhang: Fragebogen der Monatsumfrage in der Industrie; Bernd Lucke und Malte Knüppel: Unternehmensgrößenklassen im ifo-Konjunkturtest: eine Burns-Mitchell-Analyse; 1. Einleitung; 2. Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie; 3. Bestimmung der Referenzzyklen; 4. Geschäftsklimadaten nach Unternehmensgrößenklassen; 5. Beschäftigungseffekte; 6. Schlussbemerkungen; Literatur; Anhang
• Katharina Morik and Stefan Rüping: An Inductive Logic Programming Approach to the Classification of Phases in Business Cycles1. Introduction; 2. Inductive Logic Programming; 2.1 MOBAL; 2.1.1 The Rule Discovery Tool RDT; 2.1.2 Rule Inspection; 2.1.3 Knowledge Revision; 3. Experiments on German Business Cycle Data; 3.1 Discretization; 3.2 Modeling Four Phases Without Time Intervals; 3.3 Modeling Four Phases with Time Intervals; 3.4 Modeling Two Phases; 3.5 Concept Shift; 4. Conclusion and Further Work; References
• Ursula Garczarek and Claus Weihs: Univariate Characterization of the German Business Cycle 1955-1994