Classification and clustering in business cycle analysis / Ullrich Heilemann and Claus Weihs (eds.).

• Superior document: RWI Schriften, Heft 79
• Author: Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Essen.; Weihs, Claus
• TeilnehmendeR: Heilemann, Ullrich.; Weihs, Claus.; Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Essen.; Universität Dortmund. Fachbereich Statistik.
• Year of Publication: 2007
• Language: English
• Series: RWI Schriften ; Heft 79.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (168 p.)
• Notes: Conference papers.

Hauptbeschreibung The analysis of cyclical macroeconomic phenomena is an important field of econometric research. In the recent past, research interests have de-emphasized quantitative forecasting exercises and have addressed the qualitative diagnosis of the relative stance of the economy regarding ""upswing"", ""recession"", or ""boom"" periods, i. e. the classification of the state of the economy into a limited number of discrete states. In this context the principal challenge is to reduce the multifaceted and sometimes abundant quantitative information about the business cycle to

Table of Contents

Preface; Contents; Ullrich Heilemann and Claus Weihs: Introduction; References; Victor Zarnowitz: Phases and Stages of Recent U.S. Business Cycles; 1. Introduction; 2. Growth Cycles and Business Cycles; 3. Stages of Expansion and Contraction; 4. Applicability to U.S. Postwar Expansions; 5. Applicability to U.S. Postwar Contractions; 6. An Extension to the Last Recession; 7. Conclusion; References; Ullrich Heilemann and Heinz Josef Münch: The U.S. Business Cycle and its Phases 1948-2000; 1. Introduction; 2. Re-examining Meyer/Weinberg; 3. Stability of Meyer/Weinberg's Results

3.1 A Four-phase Classification for 1973 to 20003.2 New Sample Performance of the M/W Scheme; 3.3 Outside Sample Performance; 3.4 Stability of the M/W-Scheme in the New Sample; 4. Summary and Conclusions; References; Appendix: Linear Discriminant Analysis; Claus Weihs and Ursula Garczarek: Stability of Multivariate Representation of Business Cycles over Time; 1. Introduction; 2. Data; 3. Classification of Business Cycle Phases; 4. Classification Methods and Classification Rules; 5. Double Leave-one-cycle-out Cross Validation; 6. Classification Results and Resulting Models

4. Aspekte verschiedener Trendbereinigungsverfahren5. Beispiele zur unterschiedlichen Wendepunktdatierung; 6. Zykluskonzept und Erklärungsansätze; 7. Fazit; Literatur; Anhang: Fragebogen der Monatsumfrage in der Industrie; Bernd Lucke und Malte Knüppel: Unternehmensgrößenklassen im ifo-Konjunkturtest: eine Burns-Mitchell-Analyse; 1. Einleitung; 2. Burns-Mitchell-Methodologie; 3. Bestimmung der Referenzzyklen; 4. Geschäftsklimadaten nach Unternehmensgrößenklassen; 5. Beschäftigungseffekte; 6. Schlussbemerkungen; Literatur; Anhang

Katharina Morik and Stefan Rüping: An Inductive Logic Programming Approach to the Classification of Phases in Business Cycles1. Introduction; 2. Inductive Logic Programming; 2.1 MOBAL; 2.1.1 The Rule Discovery Tool RDT; 2.1.2 Rule Inspection; 2.1.3 Knowledge Revision; 3. Experiments on German Business Cycle Data; 3.1 Discretization; 3.2 Modeling Four Phases Without Time Intervals; 3.3 Modeling Four Phases with Time Intervals; 3.4 Modeling Two Phases; 3.5 Concept Shift; 4. Conclusion and Further Work; References

Ursula Garczarek and Claus Weihs: Univariate Characterization of the German Business Cycle 1955-1994