Agriculture & Food Systems To 2050.

• Superior document: World Scientific Series In Grand Public Policy Challenges Of The 21st Century ; v.2
• Author: Serraj, Rachid.
• TeilnehmendeR: Pingali, Prabhu L., 1955-
• Place / Publishing House: Singapore : : World Scientific Publishing Company,, 2018.; ©2019.
• Year of Publication: 2018
• Language: English
• Series: World Scientific Series In Grand Public Policy Challenges Of The 21st Century
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (678 pages)

This book features a comprehensive foresight assessment, exploring the pressures — threats as well as opportunities — on the global agriculture & food systems between now and 2050. The overarching aim is to help readers understand the context, by analyzing global trends and anticipating change f...

Table of Contents

• Intro
• Contents
• Foreword
• About the Editors
• List of Contributors
• Part I - Agriculture and Food Systems: Looking towards 2030/2050
• Chapter 1 - Agriculture and Food Systems to 2050: A Synthesis
• 1.1 Introduction
• 1.2 Urbanization, Demographic Transitions, and the Transformation of Smallholder Farming
• 1.3 Climate Change and Agri-Food Systems
• 1.4 Food Systems for Better Nutrition and Health
• 1.5 Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems
• 1.6 New Science and Technology for Managing Systemic Complexity and Trade-offs
• 1.7 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 2 - Global Drivers and Megatrends in Agri-Food Systems
• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Approaches to Foresight
• 2.3 A Brief Overview of Recent Foresight Studies on Food Security and Agri-Food Systems
• 2.3.1 Methodological approach
• 2.3.2 Food, human nutrition, and diets
• 2.3.3 Agro-environmental futures
• 2.3.4 Technology and innovation for sustainable food systems
• 2.3.5 Gaining insights into food system analyses through combined quantitative modeling and qualitative approaches
• 2.3.6 Advantages of participatory techniques
• 2.3.7 Adaptation pathways
• 2.4 Relevant Drivers in Agri-Food System Analyses
• 2.5 Megatrends and Less-Explored Areas in Food System Analyses
• 2.5.1 Fourteen megatrends identified through the Megatrends Hub
• 2.5.2 Underexplored trends in recent foresight work
• 2.6 Conclusions
• References
• Part II - Food System Threats and Challenges
• Chapter 3 - Migration, Demography, and Agri-Food Systems
• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Traditional Pathways and Emerging Trends
• 3.3 Demographic Trends: Rural and Youth Population Projections
• 3.4 Rural-Urban Migration Trends
• 3.4.1 Data gaps and challenges
• 3.4.2 Methodology
• 3.4.2.1 Projections of migration rates
• 3.4.2.2 Youth migration rates.
• 3.4.2.3 Aggregation of migration rates
• 3.4.2.4 Methodological assumptions and their implications
• 3.4.3 Projections of rural-urban migration rates
• 3.4.3.1 Global view
• 3.4.3.2 Rural-urban migration by gender
• 3.4.3.3 Trends in agri-food systems and rural-urban migration
• 3.5 Climate Change, Migration, and Demography
• 3.6 Seasonal Migration: A Nascent Literature
• 3.7 Conclusions
• Appendix A: Country Groupings
• Appendix B: Methodology for Projections of Rural-Urban (Youth) Migration: Survival Ratio Method
• B.1 Total Population
• B.2 Youth Migration
• References
• Chapter 4 - Urbanization, Agriculture, and Smallholder Farming
• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 A Changing Context for Agriculture
• 4.2.1 Increasing urbanization
• 4.2.2 Changing food value chains
• 4.2.3 Growing international trade
• 4.2.4 Changes in the distribution of land
• 4.3 The Future of Small Farms
• 4.3.1 A "reverse" transition
• 4.3.2 Prognosis
• 4.3.3 Diverging livelihood pathways
• 4.4 Implications for Small Farm Policies and Agricultural Research
• 4.4.1 Implications for assisting small farms
• 4.4.2 Implications for agricultural research
• 4.5 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 5 - Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.2 Agro-climatic Trends and System Responses
• 5.2.1 Observed changes to agricultural climates
• 5.2.2 Direct climate impacts on agricultural systems
• 5.2.3 Indirect mechanisms for agro-climatological impacts
• 5.2.4 Agricultural system influences on the climate system
• 5.3 Projected Climate Changes for Agricultural Regions
• 5.4 Ramifications of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector
• 5.5 Agricultural Modeling for Climate Vulnerability Foresight
• References
• Chapter 6 - Environment and Natural Resources
• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Freshwater
• 6.3 Land
• 6.4 Phosphorus.
• 6.5 Marine Resources
• 6.6 Ecosystems
• 6.7 Availability of Natural Resources: Scenarios
• 6.8 Broader Context
• 6.9 Conclusion
• References
• Chapter 7 - Food Systems, Diets, and Nutrition
• 7.1 The World's Many Nutrition Challenges
• 7.2 India as a Case Study
• 7.3 Pathways from Agriculture to Diets and Nutrition
• 7.3.1 Agricultural diversification
• 7.3.2 Irrigation and water availability
• 7.3.3 Water quality
• 7.3.4 Women's labor use in agriculture
• 7.3.5 Exposure to zoonotic diseases
• 7.3.6 Food safety
• 7.4 Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
• References
• Part III - Technological Innovation and Disruptive Futures
• Chapter 8 - Innovation in Breeding and Biotechnology
• 8.1 Introduction
• 8.2 Background to Genetic Improvement
• 8.3 Sources of Future Genetic Gains
• 8.3.1 Enhancing the efficiency of current breeding technologies
• 8.3.1.1 Expanding the germplasm pool
• 8.3.1.2 Recombination
• 8.3.1.3 Population size
• 8.3.1.4 Heritability
• 8.3.1.5 Breeding cycle
• 8.3.2 Generating major changes in breeding methodologies
• 8.3.2.1 Enhancing photosynthesis
• 8.3.2.2 Transferring nitrogen fixation to non-legume crops
• 8.3.2.3 Hybrid breeding and apomixis
• 8.4 Technology Adoption
• 8.4.1 The production system
• 8.4.2 Technology transfer between species and crops
• 8.4.3 Regulation and acceptance by consumers/governments
• 8.5 Biotechnology in the Improvement of Farm Animals
• 8.5.1 Transgenic animals
• 8.5.2 Genome editing
• 8.5.3 Reproductive technologies
• 8.5.4 Human nutrition, pharmaceutical, and biomedical applications
• 8.5.5 Fish and other seafood
• 8.6 Where to Next?
• 8.7 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 9 - Advancing to the Next Generation of Precision Agriculture
• 9.1 Introduction
• 9.2 Technological Advances
• 9.3 Worldwide Precision Agriculture.
• 9.4 Applications of Technology to Seasonal Monitoring
• 9.4.1 Case study: Spray application technology for precision agriculture
• 9.4.2 Case study: Variable-rate application
• 9.5 Remote Sensing for Precision Agriculture
• 9.5.1 Aerial multispectral imaging for assessing crop injury from off-target drift of aerially applied glyphosate
• 9.5.2 Case study: Build DSM to estimate plant height
• 9.5.3 Field observation scale optimization and multisource data fusion and assimilation
• 9.6 Precision Agriculture Systems for a
• 9.6.1 Remote-sensing models for precision agriculture-based statistics
• 9.6.2 Spatially specific agricultural statistics (yield, production, area)
• 9.7 Precision Agriculture for Smallholders and Developing Countries
• 9.8 Precision Agriculture in the Next 10 Years
• References
• Chapter 10 - Disruptive Futures: Prospects for Breakthrough Technologies
• 10.1 Introduction
• 10.2 Technology Trends
• 10.2.1 Bioinformatics
• 10.2.2 Smart farming
• 10.2.3 Genetics
• 10.2.4 Synthetic biology
• 10.2.5 Protein transition
• 10.2.6 Food design
• 10.2.7 Aquaculture
• 10.2.8 Vertical agriculture
• 10.2.9 Conservation technology
• 10.3 The Grand Societal Challenges
• 10.4 When Agri-Food Technology Meets the Grand Societal Challenges
• 10.4.1 Health, demographic change, and well-being
• 10.4.2 Secure, clean, and efficient energy
• 10.4.3 Smart, green, and integrated transport
• 10.4.4 Climate action, environment, resource efficiency, and raw materials
• 10.4.5 Europe in a changing world-Inclusive, innovative, and reflective societies
• 10.4.6 Secure societies-Protecting freedom and security of Europe and its citizens
• 10.5 Agri-Food Technology and Future Scenarios
• 10.5.1 Economic optimism
• 10.5.2 Reformed markets
• 10.5.3 Global sustainable development
• 10.5.4 Regional competition.
• 10.5.5 Regional sustainable development
• 10.6 Concluding Remarks
• 10.6.1 Potential breakthrough technologies in light of the Grand Societal Challenges
• 10.6.2 Potential breakthrough technologies in the light of future scenarios
• 10.6.3 Insights and recommendations for further research
• References
• Chapter 11 - Investor Perspectives on Future Priorities
• Overview
• 11.1 Current State of Capital Flows to African Agriculture
• 11.1.1 The investment ladder for SME agribusinesses
• 11.1.2 Incubators and accelerators
• 11.1.3 Commercial banks
• 11.1.4 Impact investors
• 11.1.5 The missing middle in the investment ladder
• 11.2 Future Priorities for Commercial Investors
• 11.2.1 Constraints to investment
• 11.2.1.1 Lack of infrastructure
• 11.2.1.2 Deficiencies in the broader value chain
• 11.2.1.3 Limited deal flow
• 11.2.1.4 Position on the cost curve
• 11.2.1.5 Insufficient supply of talent for managing large-scale agricultural operations
• 11.2.1.6 High environment, social, and governance (ESG) risk
• 11.2.2 Lessons from the past
• 11.2.2.1 Analysis of CDC's agriculture investments in Africa (1948-1998)
• 11.2.3 Current trends and opportunities for the future
• 11.2.3.1 Choice of country
• 11.2.3.2 Distribution of new agribusiness investments in Africa by segment
• 11.2.3.3 Choice of commodity
• 11.3 Creating Shared Value in African Agriculture
• 11.3.1 Development thesis of impact investors
• 11.3.1.1 Agricultural development
• 11.3.1.2 Rural job creation
• 11.3.1.3 Development of the agri-food sector
• 11.3.2 Key agricultural development models
• 11.3.3 Value-chain clusters and creating shared value
• 11.3.3.1 Fostering clusters and enhancing entire value chains
• 11.3.3.2 Creating shared value (CSV) through reconnecting business and society
• 11.3.3.3 Responding to growing resource constraints.
• 11.3.3.4 Responding to consumer demands.