Agriculture & Food Systems To 2050.

• Superior document: World Scientific Series In Grand Public Policy Challenges Of The 21st Century ; v.2
• Author: Serraj, Rachid.
• TeilnehmendeR: Pingali, Prabhu L., 1955-
• Place / Publishing House: Singapore : : World Scientific Publishing Company,, 2018.; ©2019.
• Year of Publication: 2018
• Language: English
• Series: World Scientific Series In Grand Public Policy Challenges Of The 21st Century
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (678 pages)

This book features a comprehensive foresight assessment, exploring the pressures — threats as well as opportunities — on the global agriculture & food systems between now and 2050. The overarching aim is to help readers understand the context, by analyzing global trends and anticipating change for better planning and constructing pathways from the present to the future by focusing on the right questions and problems. The book contextualizes the role of international agricultural research in addressing the complex challenges posed by UN 2030 Agenda and beyond, and identifies the decisions that scientific leaders, donors and policy makers need to take today, and in the years ahead, to ensure that a global population rising to nine billion or more combined with rising incomes and changing diets can be fed sustainably and equitably, in the face of the growing climate threats.

Table of Contents

Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- About the Editors -- List of Contributors -- Part I - Agriculture and Food Systems: Looking towards 2030/2050 -- Chapter 1 - Agriculture and Food Systems to 2050: A Synthesis -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Urbanization, Demographic Transitions, and the Transformation of Smallholder Farming -- 1.3 Climate Change and Agri-Food Systems -- 1.4 Food Systems for Better Nutrition and Health -- 1.5 Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems -- 1.6 New Science and Technology for Managing Systemic Complexity and Trade-offs -- 1.7 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 2 - Global Drivers and Megatrends in Agri-Food Systems -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Approaches to Foresight -- 2.3 A Brief Overview of Recent Foresight Studies on Food Security and Agri-Food Systems -- 2.3.1 Methodological approach -- 2.3.2 Food, human nutrition, and diets -- 2.3.3 Agro-environmental futures -- 2.3.4 Technology and innovation for sustainable food systems -- 2.3.5 Gaining insights into food system analyses through combined quantitative modeling and qualitative approaches -- 2.3.6 Advantages of participatory techniques -- 2.3.7 Adaptation pathways -- 2.4 Relevant Drivers in Agri-Food System Analyses -- 2.5 Megatrends and Less-Explored Areas in Food System Analyses -- 2.5.1 Fourteen megatrends identified through the Megatrends Hub -- 2.5.2 Underexplored trends in recent foresight work -- 2.6 Conclusions -- References -- Part II - Food System Threats and Challenges -- Chapter 3 - Migration, Demography, and Agri-Food Systems -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Traditional Pathways and Emerging Trends -- 3.3 Demographic Trends: Rural and Youth Population Projections -- 3.4 Rural-Urban Migration Trends -- 3.4.1 Data gaps and challenges -- 3.4.2 Methodology -- 3.4.2.1 Projections of migration rates -- 3.4.2.2 Youth migration rates.

3.4.2.3 Aggregation of migration rates -- 3.4.2.4 Methodological assumptions and their implications -- 3.4.3 Projections of rural-urban migration rates -- 3.4.3.1 Global view -- 3.4.3.2 Rural-urban migration by gender -- 3.4.3.3 Trends in agri-food systems and rural-urban migration -- 3.5 Climate Change, Migration, and Demography -- 3.6 Seasonal Migration: A Nascent Literature -- 3.7 Conclusions -- Appendix A: Country Groupings -- Appendix B: Methodology for Projections of Rural-Urban (Youth) Migration: Survival Ratio Method -- B.1 Total Population -- B.2 Youth Migration -- References -- Chapter 4 - Urbanization, Agriculture, and Smallholder Farming -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 A Changing Context for Agriculture -- 4.2.1 Increasing urbanization -- 4.2.2 Changing food value chains -- 4.2.3 Growing international trade -- 4.2.4 Changes in the distribution of land -- 4.3 The Future of Small Farms -- 4.3.1 A "reverse" transition -- 4.3.2 Prognosis -- 4.3.3 Diverging livelihood pathways -- 4.4 Implications for Small Farm Policies and Agricultural Research -- 4.4.1 Implications for assisting small farms -- 4.4.2 Implications for agricultural research -- 4.5 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 5 - Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Agro-climatic Trends and System Responses -- 5.2.1 Observed changes to agricultural climates -- 5.2.2 Direct climate impacts on agricultural systems -- 5.2.3 Indirect mechanisms for agro-climatological impacts -- 5.2.4 Agricultural system influences on the climate system -- 5.3 Projected Climate Changes for Agricultural Regions -- 5.4 Ramifications of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector -- 5.5 Agricultural Modeling for Climate Vulnerability Foresight -- References -- Chapter 6 - Environment and Natural Resources -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Freshwater -- 6.3 Land -- 6.4 Phosphorus.

6.5 Marine Resources -- 6.6 Ecosystems -- 6.7 Availability of Natural Resources: Scenarios -- 6.8 Broader Context -- 6.9 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 7 - Food Systems, Diets, and Nutrition -- 7.1 The World's Many Nutrition Challenges -- 7.2 India as a Case Study -- 7.3 Pathways from Agriculture to Diets and Nutrition -- 7.3.1 Agricultural diversification -- 7.3.2 Irrigation and water availability -- 7.3.3 Water quality -- 7.3.4 Women's labor use in agriculture -- 7.3.5 Exposure to zoonotic diseases -- 7.3.6 Food safety -- 7.4 Challenges and Opportunities Ahead -- References -- Part III - Technological Innovation and Disruptive Futures -- Chapter 8 - Innovation in Breeding and Biotechnology -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Background to Genetic Improvement -- 8.3 Sources of Future Genetic Gains -- 8.3.1 Enhancing the efficiency of current breeding technologies -- 8.3.1.1 Expanding the germplasm pool -- 8.3.1.2 Recombination -- 8.3.1.3 Population size -- 8.3.1.4 Heritability -- 8.3.1.5 Breeding cycle -- 8.3.2 Generating major changes in breeding methodologies -- 8.3.2.1 Enhancing photosynthesis -- 8.3.2.2 Transferring nitrogen fixation to non-legume crops -- 8.3.2.3 Hybrid breeding and apomixis -- 8.4 Technology Adoption -- 8.4.1 The production system -- 8.4.2 Technology transfer between species and crops -- 8.4.3 Regulation and acceptance by consumers/governments -- 8.5 Biotechnology in the Improvement of Farm Animals -- 8.5.1 Transgenic animals -- 8.5.2 Genome editing -- 8.5.3 Reproductive technologies -- 8.5.4 Human nutrition, pharmaceutical, and biomedical applications -- 8.5.5 Fish and other seafood -- 8.6 Where to Next? -- 8.7 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 9 - Advancing to the Next Generation of Precision Agriculture -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Technological Advances -- 9.3 Worldwide Precision Agriculture.

9.4 Applications of Technology to Seasonal Monitoring -- 9.4.1 Case study: Spray application technology for precision agriculture -- 9.4.2 Case study: Variable-rate application -- 9.5 Remote Sensing for Precision Agriculture -- 9.5.1 Aerial multispectral imaging for assessing crop injury from off-target drift of aerially applied glyphosate -- 9.5.2 Case study: Build DSM to estimate plant height -- 9.5.3 Field observation scale optimization and multisource data fusion and assimilation -- 9.6 Precision Agriculture Systems for a -- 9.6.1 Remote-sensing models for precision agriculture-based statistics -- 9.6.2 Spatially specific agricultural statistics (yield, production, area) -- 9.7 Precision Agriculture for Smallholders and Developing Countries -- 9.8 Precision Agriculture in the Next 10 Years -- References -- Chapter 10 - Disruptive Futures: Prospects for Breakthrough Technologies -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Technology Trends -- 10.2.1 Bioinformatics -- 10.2.2 Smart farming -- 10.2.3 Genetics -- 10.2.4 Synthetic biology -- 10.2.5 Protein transition -- 10.2.6 Food design -- 10.2.7 Aquaculture -- 10.2.8 Vertical agriculture -- 10.2.9 Conservation technology -- 10.3 The Grand Societal Challenges -- 10.4 When Agri-Food Technology Meets the Grand Societal Challenges -- 10.4.1 Health, demographic change, and well-being -- 10.4.2 Secure, clean, and efficient energy -- 10.4.3 Smart, green, and integrated transport -- 10.4.4 Climate action, environment, resource efficiency, and raw materials -- 10.4.5 Europe in a changing world-Inclusive, innovative, and reflective societies -- 10.4.6 Secure societies-Protecting freedom and security of Europe and its citizens -- 10.5 Agri-Food Technology and Future Scenarios -- 10.5.1 Economic optimism -- 10.5.2 Reformed markets -- 10.5.3 Global sustainable development -- 10.5.4 Regional competition.

10.5.5 Regional sustainable development -- 10.6 Concluding Remarks -- 10.6.1 Potential breakthrough technologies in light of the Grand Societal Challenges -- 10.6.2 Potential breakthrough technologies in the light of future scenarios -- 10.6.3 Insights and recommendations for further research -- References -- Chapter 11 - Investor Perspectives on Future Priorities -- Overview -- 11.1 Current State of Capital Flows to African Agriculture -- 11.1.1 The investment ladder for SME agribusinesses -- 11.1.2 Incubators and accelerators -- 11.1.3 Commercial banks -- 11.1.4 Impact investors -- 11.1.5 The missing middle in the investment ladder -- 11.2 Future Priorities for Commercial Investors -- 11.2.1 Constraints to investment -- 11.2.1.1 Lack of infrastructure -- 11.2.1.2 Deficiencies in the broader value chain -- 11.2.1.3 Limited deal flow -- 11.2.1.4 Position on the cost curve -- 11.2.1.5 Insufficient supply of talent for managing large-scale agricultural operations -- 11.2.1.6 High environment, social, and governance (ESG) risk -- 11.2.2 Lessons from the past -- 11.2.2.1 Analysis of CDC's agriculture investments in Africa (1948-1998) -- 11.2.3 Current trends and opportunities for the future -- 11.2.3.1 Choice of country -- 11.2.3.2 Distribution of new agribusiness investments in Africa by segment -- 11.2.3.3 Choice of commodity -- 11.3 Creating Shared Value in African Agriculture -- 11.3.1 Development thesis of impact investors -- 11.3.1.1 Agricultural development -- 11.3.1.2 Rural job creation -- 11.3.1.3 Development of the agri-food sector -- 11.3.2 Key agricultural development models -- 11.3.3 Value-chain clusters and creating shared value -- 11.3.3.1 Fostering clusters and enhancing entire value chains -- 11.3.3.2 Creating shared value (CSV) through reconnecting business and society -- 11.3.3.3 Responding to growing resource constraints.

11.3.3.4 Responding to consumer demands.