Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis : : Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method /

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis : : Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method / / Martha Whitesmith.

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to m...

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Bibliographic Details
Superior document:Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Edinburgh University Press Complete eBook-Package 2020
VerfasserIn:
Whitesmith, Martha,
Place / Publishing House:Edinburgh : : Edinburgh University Press, , [2022]
©2020
Year of Publication:2022
Language:English
Series:Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW
Online Access:
Physical Description:1 online resource (304 p.)
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Table of Contents:
  • Frontmatter
  • Contents
  • List of Figures and Tables
  • Acknowledgements
  • Introduction
  • PART 1 Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
  • 1 Intelligence and Belief Acquisition
  • 2 The Effi cacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justifi cation and Mitigating Cognitive Bias
  • PART 2 Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
  • 3 The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario
  • 4 Predicting Serial Position Effects
  • 5 Predicting Confirmation Bias
  • 6 Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
  • Appendix: Adaptation of Iraq WMD Case Study to Form Intelligence Case for Experimental Study
  • Bibliography
  • Index

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