Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis : : Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method / / Martha Whitesmith.

• Superior document: Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Edinburgh University Press Complete eBook-Package 2020
• VerfasserIn: Whitesmith, Martha,
• Place / Publishing House: Edinburgh : : Edinburgh University Press, , [2022]; ©2020
• Year of Publication: 2022
• Language: English
• Series: Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (304 p.)

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter -- Contents -- List of Figures and Tables -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction -- PART 1 Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective -- 1 Intelligence and Belief Acquisition -- 2 The Effi cacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justifi cation and Mitigating Cognitive Bias -- PART 2 Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective -- 3 The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario -- 4 Predicting Serial Position Effects -- 5 Predicting Confirmation Bias -- 6 Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis -- Appendix: Adaptation of Iraq WMD Case Study to Form Intelligence Case for Experimental Study -- Bibliography -- Index