Expert Political Judgment : : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? /

Expert Political Judgment : : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? / / Philip E. Tetlock.

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are...

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Bibliographic Details
Superior document:Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Princeton University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013
VerfasserIn:
Tetlock, Philip E.,
MitwirkendeR:
Rescober, Phillip,
Tetlock, Philip E.,
Place / Publishing House:Princeton, NJ : : Princeton University Press, , [2009]
©2006
Year of Publication:2009
Edition:Course Book
Language:English
Online Access:
Physical Description:1 online resource (344 p.) :; 39 line illus. 7 tables.
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Table of Contents:
  • Frontmatter
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • Preface
  • Chapter 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable
  • Chapter 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism
  • Chapter 3. Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge
  • Chapter 4. Honoring Reputational Bets
  • Chapter 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals
  • Chapter 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back
  • Chapter 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness?
  • Chapter 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability
  • Methodological Appendix
  • Technical Appendix
  • Index

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