Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / / ed. by Christoph Meyer.
The first comparative study of estimative intelligence and strategic surprise in a European context, complementing and testing insights from previous studies centred on the United StatesExtensive empirical analysis of open-source material and interviews in relation to three cases of major surprise:...
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Place / Publishing House: | Edinburgh : : Edinburgh University Press, , [2022] ©2022 |
Year of Publication: | 2022 |
Language: | English |
Series: | Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW
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Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / ed. by Christoph Meyer. Edinburgh : Edinburgh University Press, [2022] ©2022 1 online resource (256 p.) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW Frontmatter -- Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction: Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy -- 1. Expectations from Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy: A Realistic Appraisal -- 2. Surprise, Revisited: An EU Performance Evaluation of the Arab Uprisings -- 3. How Germany and the UK Anticipated ISIS’s Rise to Power in Syria and Iraq -- 4. The Case of the Ukraine–Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons for the EU’s Estimative Intelligence -- 5. The Case of the UK: Intelligence Assessment, Priorities and Knowing that you are Being Warned -- 6. ‘We Never Plan for the Worst Case’: Considering the Case of Germany -- 7. Lessons Learned and Still to be Learned: The Case of the European Union -- 8. Which Lessons to Learn from an Era of Surprise? Key Findings and Implications from the Dual Comparison -- References -- Index restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec online access with authorization star The first comparative study of estimative intelligence and strategic surprise in a European context, complementing and testing insights from previous studies centred on the United StatesExtensive empirical analysis of open-source material and interviews in relation to three cases of major surprise: Arab uprisings, ISIS’ rise to power in Syria and Iraq, and the Russian annexation of CrimeaNew theoretical insights into the causes of surprises and performance problems going beyond the debate about intelligence versus policy failures with contributions from former senior officials from the UK, Germany and the EU Identifies main causes of surprise among intelligence analysts and external experts challenging previous findings and accounts This book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises. Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. In English. Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 29. Mai 2023) Politics. POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General. bisacsh Conrad, Gerhard, contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Guttmann, Aviva, contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Ikani, Nikki, contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Lutsch, Andreas, contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Meyer, Christoph O., contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Meyer, Christoph, editor. edt http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/edt Michaels, Eva, contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Rimmer, Paul, contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Schlie, Ulrich, contributor. ctb https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2023 English 9783111319292 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2023 9783111318912 ZDB-23-DGG Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Political Science 2023 English 9783111319254 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Political Science 2023 9783111318677 ZDB-23-PLW Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Edinburgh University Press Complete eBook-Package 2022 9783110780390 print 9781399505512 https://doi.org/10.1515/9781399505536 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781399505536 Cover https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9781399505536/original |
language |
English |
format |
eBook |
author2 |
Conrad, Gerhard, Conrad, Gerhard, Guttmann, Aviva, Guttmann, Aviva, Ikani, Nikki, Ikani, Nikki, Lutsch, Andreas, Lutsch, Andreas, Meyer, Christoph O., Meyer, Christoph O., Meyer, Christoph, Meyer, Christoph, Michaels, Eva, Michaels, Eva, Rimmer, Paul, Rimmer, Paul, Schlie, Ulrich, Schlie, Ulrich, |
author_facet |
Conrad, Gerhard, Conrad, Gerhard, Guttmann, Aviva, Guttmann, Aviva, Ikani, Nikki, Ikani, Nikki, Lutsch, Andreas, Lutsch, Andreas, Meyer, Christoph O., Meyer, Christoph O., Meyer, Christoph, Meyer, Christoph, Michaels, Eva, Michaels, Eva, Rimmer, Paul, Rimmer, Paul, Schlie, Ulrich, Schlie, Ulrich, |
author2_variant |
g c gc g c gc a g ag a g ag n i ni n i ni a l al a l al c o m co com c o m co com c m cm c m cm e m em e m em p r pr p r pr u s us u s us |
author2_role |
MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR HerausgeberIn HerausgeberIn MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR MitwirkendeR |
author_sort |
Conrad, Gerhard, |
title |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / |
spellingShingle |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW Frontmatter -- Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction: Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy -- 1. Expectations from Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy: A Realistic Appraisal -- 2. Surprise, Revisited: An EU Performance Evaluation of the Arab Uprisings -- 3. How Germany and the UK Anticipated ISIS’s Rise to Power in Syria and Iraq -- 4. The Case of the Ukraine–Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons for the EU’s Estimative Intelligence -- 5. The Case of the UK: Intelligence Assessment, Priorities and Knowing that you are Being Warned -- 6. ‘We Never Plan for the Worst Case’: Considering the Case of Germany -- 7. Lessons Learned and Still to be Learned: The Case of the European Union -- 8. Which Lessons to Learn from an Era of Surprise? Key Findings and Implications from the Dual Comparison -- References -- Index |
title_sub |
Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / |
title_full |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / ed. by Christoph Meyer. |
title_fullStr |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / ed. by Christoph Meyer. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / ed. by Christoph Meyer. |
title_auth |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / |
title_alt |
Frontmatter -- Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction: Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy -- 1. Expectations from Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy: A Realistic Appraisal -- 2. Surprise, Revisited: An EU Performance Evaluation of the Arab Uprisings -- 3. How Germany and the UK Anticipated ISIS’s Rise to Power in Syria and Iraq -- 4. The Case of the Ukraine–Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons for the EU’s Estimative Intelligence -- 5. The Case of the UK: Intelligence Assessment, Priorities and Knowing that you are Being Warned -- 6. ‘We Never Plan for the Worst Case’: Considering the Case of Germany -- 7. Lessons Learned and Still to be Learned: The Case of the European Union -- 8. Which Lessons to Learn from an Era of Surprise? Key Findings and Implications from the Dual Comparison -- References -- Index |
title_new |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : |
title_sort |
estimative intelligence in european foreign policymaking : learning lessons from an era of surprise / |
series |
Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW |
series2 |
Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW |
publisher |
Edinburgh University Press, |
publishDate |
2022 |
physical |
1 online resource (256 p.) |
contents |
Frontmatter -- Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- Introduction: Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy -- 1. Expectations from Estimative Intelligence and Anticipatory Foreign Policy: A Realistic Appraisal -- 2. Surprise, Revisited: An EU Performance Evaluation of the Arab Uprisings -- 3. How Germany and the UK Anticipated ISIS’s Rise to Power in Syria and Iraq -- 4. The Case of the Ukraine–Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons for the EU’s Estimative Intelligence -- 5. The Case of the UK: Intelligence Assessment, Priorities and Knowing that you are Being Warned -- 6. ‘We Never Plan for the Worst Case’: Considering the Case of Germany -- 7. Lessons Learned and Still to be Learned: The Case of the European Union -- 8. Which Lessons to Learn from an Era of Surprise? Key Findings and Implications from the Dual Comparison -- References -- Index |
isbn |
9781399505536 9783111319292 9783111318912 9783111319254 9783111318677 9783110780390 9781399505512 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1515/9781399505536 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781399505536 https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9781399505536/original |
illustrated |
Not Illustrated |
dewey-hundreds |
300 - Social sciences |
dewey-tens |
320 - Political science |
dewey-ones |
327 - International relations |
dewey-full |
327.12094 |
dewey-sort |
3327.12094 |
dewey-raw |
327.12094 |
dewey-search |
327.12094 |
doi_str_mv |
10.1515/9781399505536 |
oclc_num |
1371574260 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2023 English Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2023 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Political Science 2023 English Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Political Science 2023 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Edinburgh University Press Complete eBook-Package 2022 |
is_hierarchy_title |
Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking : Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise / |
container_title |
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