Climate Adaptation Modelling.

• Superior document: Springer Climate Series
• Author: Kondrup, Claus.
• TeilnehmendeR: Mercogliano, Paola.; Bosello, Francesco.; Mysiak, Jaroslav.; Scoccimarro, Enrico.; Rizzo, Angela.; Ebrey, Rhian.; Ruiter, Marleen de.; Jeuken, Ad.; Watkiss, Paul.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2022.; ©2022.
• Year of Publication: 2022
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Springer Climate Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (243 pages)

Table of Contents

Intro -- Preface -- Introduction from DG-CLIMA -- Introduction from the Editors -- Contents -- Part I Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- 1 Modelling the Cost and Benefits of Adaptation. A Targeted Review on Integrated Assessment Models with a Special Focus on Adaptation Modelling -- Introduction -- Conclusions and Recommendation -- References -- 2 Cross-Sectoral Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- Introduction -- The Grace Model -- Implications of National and Global Dependencies in Adaptation -- Adaptation in the Forestry Sector and the Global Impacts -- Adaptation from a Local Perspective and the National Impacts -- Adaptation to Heat Stress -- Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- References -- 3 Climate Services Supporting Adaptation Modelling -- The European Research and Innovation Roadmap for Climate Services -- What Has Been Accomplished and What Are Still Seen as Gaps? -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 4 Impact-Oriented Climate Information Selection -- Introduction -- Climate Scenario Storylines: The Dutch Climate Change Scenarios -- Climate Risk Storylines -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 5 On the Evaluation of Climate Change Impact Models for Adaptation Decisions -- Introduction -- Standard Evaluation Questions We Can (and Should) Ask Using Global Sensitivity Analysis -- Do the Parameters That Reflect Possible Intervention Levers Adequately Control the Model Output? -- Are Dominant Uncertainties Changing Along the Projection Timeline? -- Are Dominant Modelled Processes Changing with Climate? -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 6 Stress-Testing Adaptation Options -- Introduction -- Robustness and Resilience Frameworks -- Stress-Testing Methods -- Physical Experiments -- Systems Modelling -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References.

7 Reducing and Managing Uncertainty of Adaptation Recommendations to Increase user's Uptake -- Introduction -- Material and Methods -- Climate Data -- Crop Data and Models -- Adaptation Modelling -- Approaches for Uncertainty Reduction -- Results and Discussion -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- Part II Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Modelling -- 8 Modelling Risk Reduction Measures to Minimise Future Impacts of Storms at Coastal Areas -- Introduction -- Modelling the Impact of Coastal Storms -- Modelling Risk Reduction Measures Including Climate Change -- Bottlenecks and Future Developments -- Conclusions -- References -- 9 A Model-Based Response Surface Approach for Evaluating Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Urgency -- Introduction -- Impacts and Adaptation in a Risk Framework -- Modelling Impacts and Adaptation -- Objectives and Research Questions -- Approach -- Operationalising the IPCC Risk Framework -- Impact Models -- Impact Response Surfaces -- Illustrative Results: Risk Assessment -- Risks of Crop Yield Shortfall in Finland -- Impact Risks for Water Management in the Vale Do Gaio Reservoir, Portugal -- Regional Risks and the Urgency for Action -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 10 Use of Vegetation for Landslide Risk Mitigation -- Introduction -- Climate-Induced Landslides -- Landslides Risk in View of Climatic Changes: Relevant Past and On-Going Projects -- Slope Stability Modelling -- Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) -- Nature-Based Solutions for Climate-Related Challenges: European Strategy -- Use of NBS in Landslide Risk Mitigation -- Modelling of Slope Stability Using Vegetation -- Effects of Vegetation on Landslide Protection -- Expected Development Within Landslide Modelling Using Vegetation -- Challenges Related to Legislation -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References.

11 Modelling to Evaluate Climate Resilience of Crop Rotations Under Climate Change -- Introduction -- Main Effects of Crop Rotations and Their Management -- Current State of Model-Based Climate Change Impact Assessment -- Conclusions and Recommendations for Model Improvement -- References -- 12 Dynamic Flood Risk Modelling in Human-Flood Systems -- Introduction -- Empirical Data-Driven Knowledge -- Modelling Changes in Flood Risk -- Modelling Approaches -- Role of Spatial Scale -- Conclusion and Recommendation -- References -- 13 Climate-Fit.City: Urban Climate Data and Services -- Introduction -- Climate-Fit.City Data -- Climate-Fit.City Services -- Conclusions -- References -- 14 Weather and Climate Services to Support a Risk-Sharing Mechanism for Adaptation of the Agricultural Sector. A Theoretical Example for Drought-Prone Areas -- Introduction -- Weather-Based Index Insurance (WII) -- Overview of Modelling Approach -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 15 Recent Innovations in Flood Hazard Modelling Over Large Data Sparse Regions -- Introduction -- Overview of Progress in Global Flood Modelling -- Digital Terrain Modelling -- Extreme Flows -- Hydrography: River Location, Width and Depth -- Inundation Modelling -- Discussion -- References -- Part III Sectoral Models for Impact and Adaptation Assessment -- 16 A New Modelling Approach to Adaptation-Mitigation in the Land System -- Introduction -- Modelling Adaptation in the Land Use and Food System -- Existing Approaches and Research Gaps -- LandSyMM Modelling Approach -- Climate Change Adaptation Applications -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 17 Water Resource System Modelling for Climate Adaptation -- Introduction -- Decision Analysis for Water Management Under Climate Change -- Simulation Models for Climate Adaptation in the Water Sector.

Adaptation Practices in the Water Sector: Simulating London's Water Security -- The Expanding Boundaries of Water Resources System Modelling -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 18 A Top-Down Meets Bottom-Up Approach for Climate Change Adaptation in Water Resource Systems -- Introduction -- Uncertainty and Adaptation in Water Resource Systems -- Top-Down Versus Bottom-Up Adaptation Strategies -- Bottom-Up Approach -- Developing Future Demand Scenarios Through Scenario Building Workshops -- Developing Portfolios of Water Management Adaptation Options at the Basin Scale -- Top-Down Impact Assessment -- Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches -- Addressing Equity in Cost Allocation -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 19 Advances in Climate Adaptation Modeling of Infrastructure Networks -- Introduction -- Methodologies for Evaluating Network Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Adaptation -- Case Studies of Infrastructure Vulnerability, Risk, and Adaptation Assessments -- Tools Developed Through Case Studies -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 20 Navigating Deep Uncertainty in Complex Human-Water Systems -- Introduction -- Navigating Deep Uncertainty Type 1: Modular Hierarchies for Multi-system Ensembles -- Navigating Deep Uncertainty Type 2: Measuring and Understanding Transaction Costs to Avoid Techno-Institutional Lock-In -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 21 Cascading Transitional Climate Risks in the Private Sector-Risks and Opportunities -- Introduction -- Methods -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 22 Climate Change Adaptation in Insurance -- Introduction -- Incentivise Risk Reduction Measures in Property Insurance -- Promote Pro-active Management of Business Interruption Risks -- Improve Creditworthiness Through Adaptation Measures -- Conclusions -- References.

23 Climate Change Adaptation and Societal Transformation: What Are the Public Health Challenges? -- The European Commission's Missions for Horizon Europe -- Societal Transformation -- The Climate Change Driver -- Working Towards the 'Second Path' to Limit the Global Average Temperature Rise to 'Well Below 2 ºC' -- What Systems Thinking Approaches for Interventions are Available? -- How Research Might Deliver Evidence for the Suggested Interventions -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- Annexe 1 MINDSPACE is a Checklist of Influences on Our Behaviour for Use When Making Policy (Cabinet Office 2010) -- Annexe 2 The APEASE Criteria for Assessing Interventions, Intervention Components and Ideas (Michie et al. 2014) -- References -- Part IV Adaptation Modelling and Policy Action -- 24 The Roles of Climate Risk Dynamics and Adaptation Limits in Adaptation Assessment -- Introduction -- Dynamics of Risk -- Exposure Change -- Vulnerability Change -- Adaptation Limits -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 25 Climate Impact Chains-A Conceptual Modelling Approach for Climate Risk Assessment in the Context of Adaptation Planning -- Introduction -- Methodology-Impact Chains, Operationalisation and Adaptation Planning -- Impact Chains-Conceptual Models of Climate Risks -- Operationalisation-Models, Indicators, Qualitative Approaches -- How Impact Chains Support Adaptation Planning -- Conclusion and Recommendations -- References -- 26 Operationalizing Climate Proofing in Decision/Policy Making -- Introduction -- Methods -- Applications -- Conclusions -- References -- 27 Adaptation Modelling: A JPI Climate Perspective -- Introduction -- Key Projects -- Ongoing and Future Developments -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- Correction to: The Roles of Climate Risk Dynamics and Adaptation Limits in Adaptation Assessment.

Correction to: Chapter 24 in: C. Kondrup et al. (eds.), Climate Adaptation Modelling, Springer Climate, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-424.