Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa : : Modeling and Evaluation.

• Superior document: Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series
• Author: Henning, Christian.
• TeilnehmendeR: Badiane, Ousmane.; Krampe, Eva.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2017.; ©2018.
• Year of Publication: 2017
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (355 pages)

Table of Contents

• Intro
• Foreword
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• Contents
• List of Acronyms
• Policy Support Through Modeling and Evaluation: Methodological Challenges and Practical Solutions
• 1 A General Framework for Policy and Policy Process Evaluation
• 1.1 The Basic Setup
• 1.2 Policy Impact Evaluation
• 1.2.1 Policy Evaluation Criteria
• 1.2.2 Intervention Logic
• 1.2.3 Evaluation Methods
• Model-Based Policy Evaluation
• Simple Incidence Analysis
• Micro-simulation Partial Equilibrium Models
• Macro or General Equilibrium Models
• Micro-Macro Linked Models
• 1.3 Econometric Policy Evaluation
• 1.4 Modeling and Evaluation of Policy Processes
• 2 Contributions to This Volume
• References
• Part I: Modeling Economic Policies
• Macro-economic Models: Comparative Analysis of Strategies and Long Term Outlook for Growth and Poverty Reduction Among ECOWAS ...
• 1 Introduction
• 1.1 What Are the Key Sources of Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction in ECOWAS Countries?
• 1.2 Are ECOWAS Countries on Track to Meeting CAADPś Growth and Poverty Reduction Targets by 2015?
• 1.3 How Fast Should ECOWAS Countries Grow to Achieve the Poverty MDG? How Much Would They Have to Spend?
• 1.4 How Consistent Are Agricultural Investment Priorities and Related Growth and Poverty Outcomes Among ECOWAS Countries?
• 2 Conclusion
• ANNEX
• Description of the Model Used to Simulate Long Term Growth and Poverty Reduction Outcomes
• Model Specification and Calibration Data
• Mathematical Model Description
• References
• Macro-economic Models: How to Spend Ugandaś Expected Oil Revenues? A CGE Analysis of the Agricultural and Poverty Impacts of ...
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Investing Oil Revenues: Options and Challenges
• 2.1 Revenue Stabilization Options
• 2.2 Investment Spending Options
• 2.2.1 Investment for Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction.
• 2.2.2 Transferring Rents to Citizens
• 3 CGE Model Simulation Setup
• 3.1 The Ugandan Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model
• 3.1.1 Private Production and Consumption
• 3.1.2 Macroeconomic Closures and Dynamics
• 3.2 Simulation Setup
• 3.2.1 Baseline Scenario
• 3.2.2 Modeling Oil Production and Refining
• 3.2.3 Oil Simulation Experiments
• 4 Model Results
• 4.1 Public Investment Scenarios with No Productivity Spillover Effects
• 4.1.1 Spending All Revenues on Infrastructure (FND00INV)
• 4.1.2 Transferring Oil Revenues to a Foreign Oil Fund (FND50INV)
• 4.1.3 Transferring Rents to Citizens (FND00IandH)
• 4.2 Public Investment Scenarios with Productivity Spillover Effects
• 5 Conclusion
• References
• Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Impact of the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) Program of Ugan...
• 1 Data and Methods
• 1.1 Data
• 1.2 Estimation Approach
• 1.2.1 Variables
• 2 Results
• 2.1 Determinants of Participation in the Program: Overlap in Covariate Distributions
• 2.1.1 Estimated Treatment Effects of the Program on Agricultural Income (INC)
• 3 Conclusions and Implications
• References
• Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Modeling Agricultural Growth and Nutrition Linkages: Lessons from Tanzania an...
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Methods
• 2.1 IFPRIś Standard Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model
• 2.2 Macro-Micro Linkages and Microsimulation Modeling
• 3 Country Case Studies
• 3.1 Tanzania
• 3.1.1 Notes on the Methodological Framework
• 3.1.2 Tanzaniaś Recent Growth Performance
• 3.1.3 Comparing Business-as-Usual Growth to Broad-Based Agricultural Growth
• 3.1.4 Identifying Priority Sectors for Agricultural Growth
• 3.1.5 Policy Recommendations
• 3.2 Malawi
• 3.2.1 Cross-Country Evidence on the Relationship Between Growth and Nutrition
• 3.2.2 Malawiś Farm Input Subsidy Program.
• 3.2.3 Modeled Scenarios and Results
• 3.2.4 Policy Recommendations
• 4 The Way Forward
• References
• Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioral Microsimulations
• 1 Introduction
• 2 A Stylized Macro-Micro Model with a Behavioral Micro-simulation
• 2.1 The Macro Model and the Link Variables
• 2.2 A Prototype Income Generation Model: The Micro-simulation
• 3 Applications
• 3.1 The Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Brazil
• 3.2 The Poverty Impacts of the Bolivian Gas Boom
• 3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
• 4 Conclusions
• References
• Part II: Modeling Policy Processes
• Modeling and Evaluation of Political Processes: A New Quantitative Approach
• 1 Introduction
• 2 The Evolutionary Computable General Political Economy Equilibrium Model: An Overview
• 2.1 General Structure and Characterization of an eCGPE
• 2.2 What Is the Purpose and Advantage of a Quantitative Policy Analysis Tool?
• 3 Theoretical Background of the eCGPE
• 3.1 Module I: Legislative Decisionmaking
• 3.1.1 The Mean Voter Rule
• 3.1.2 How the Mean Voter Rule Works: An Illustrative Example
• 3.1.3 Endogenous Derivation of Legislators ́Policy Preferences
• 3.2 Module II: Transformation of Policy Choices into Policy Outcomes
• 3.2.1 Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)
• 3.2.2 Policy Impact Function
• 3.3 Module III: Interest Mediation Module
• 3.3.1 Modeling Voter Behavior
• 3.3.2 Lobbying Activities
• 3.4 Module IV: Belief Formation Module
• 3.4.1 Communication Learning
• 4 Communication Networks and Policy Learning: A Simple Example
• 4.1 Observational Policy Learning
• 4.2 Reinforcement Learning
• 4.3 Combination of Observational and Communication Learning
• 5 Summary and Conclusion
• References.
• A Network Based Approach to Evaluate Participatory Policy Processes: An Application to CAADP in Malawi
• 1 Introduction
• 2 A Theoretical Framework for Evaluating Policy Processes
• 2.1 Government Accountability
• 2.2 Government Capture
• 2.3 Political Knowledge
• 2.4 Political Ownership
• 3 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Processes in Malawi
• 3.1 Policy Reform Context
• 3.1.1 Study Design and Data Collection
• 4 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Process in Malawi: A Network Approach
• 4.1 Relevant Organizations in the CAADP Policy Domain
• 4.2 Identified Network Structures of Political Participation in Malawi
• 4.2.1 Political Communication
• 4.2.2 Lobbying
• 4.3 Political Influence and Power
• 5 Evaluating Identified Participation Structures
• 6 From Diagnosis to Therapy: Lessons Concerning Efficient Design of Participatory Policy Processes
• 7 Conclusion
• Appendix
• References
• The Formation of Elite Communication Networks in Malawi: A Bayesian Econometric Approach
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Determinants of Political Communication Networks
• 2.1 Theoretical Considerations
• 2.2 Empirical Determinants of Communication
• 3 Study Design and Econometric Model Framework
• 3.1 Study Design
• 3.2 Econometric Model
• 4 Empirical Results
• 4.1 Homophily in Interests and Other Determinants
• 4.2 Knowledge
• 4.3 Structural Factors
• 5 Discussion
• 6 Conclusion
• References
• Voter Behavior and Government Performance in Malawi: An Application of a Probabilistic Voting Model
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Related Literature
• 3 The Model
• 3.1 The Voters
• 3.2 Parties and the Government
• 3.3 Political Equilibrium
• 3.4 Voter Behavior and Government Performance
• 4 Econometric Models and Estimation Strategy
• 4.1 Data
• 4.1.1 The Party System and Elections in Malawi
• 4.1.2 Afrobarometer Voter Survey
• 4.2 Results.
• 4.2.1 Goodness of Fit and Model Selection
• 4.2.2 Voting Behavior in Malawi
• 4.2.3 Voter Behavior and Government Performance
• 4.2.4 Relating Government Performance and Voting Behavior
• 5 Conclusion and Outlook for Future Work
• References
• Whither Participation? Evaluating Participatory Policy Processes Using the CGPE Approach: The Case of CAADP in Malawi
• 1 Introduction
• 2 Technical Implementation and Empirical Specification of the CGPE model
• 2.1 Technical Implementation in GAMS
• 2.2 Empirical Calibration of the eCGPE and Data
• 2.3 Estimation of the Policy Impact Function
• 2.4 Estimation of Individual Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge
• 3 Results
• 3.1 Political Incentives
• 3.2 Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge
• 3.3 Assessing Political Knowledge
• 4 Political Diagnosis
• 4.1 Assessing Political Performance
• 4.1.1 Knowledge or Incentive Gaps?
• 4.2 From Diagnosis to Political Therapy: Simulating Political Performance Gaps with Increased Stakeholder Participation
• 4.2.1 Simulation Scenarios
• 4.2.2 Benchmark Scenarios
• 4.2.3 Simulating Constitutional Reforms
• 4.2.4 Simulating the Informal Political Influence of Nongovernmental Organizations
• 4.3 Whither Participation?
• 5 Conclusion and Outlook on Future Research
• Appendix
• References
• Part III: Concluding Remarks
• Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support Systems (SAKSS): Translating Evidence into Action
• 1 Introduction
• 2 The Strategic Analysis Concept and Approach
• 2.1 How Can Agriculture Contribute the Most to Overall Development Objectives?
• 2.2 How Should Resources Be Mobilized and Allocated More Efficiently?
• 2.3 How Can Individual Policies and Interventions Be Better Targeted?
• 2.4 How Can Lessons Be Monitored and Evaluated During and After Implementation?.
• 2.4.1 Ensuring Availability and Reliability of Underlying Data Systems.