Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa : : Modeling and Evaluation.
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Superior document: | Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series |
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TeilnehmendeR: | |
Place / Publishing House: | Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2017. ©2018. |
Year of Publication: | 2017 |
Edition: | 1st ed. |
Language: | English |
Series: | Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series
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Online Access: | |
Physical Description: | 1 online resource (355 pages) |
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Table of Contents:
- Intro
- Foreword
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Contents
- List of Acronyms
- Policy Support Through Modeling and Evaluation: Methodological Challenges and Practical Solutions
- 1 A General Framework for Policy and Policy Process Evaluation
- 1.1 The Basic Setup
- 1.2 Policy Impact Evaluation
- 1.2.1 Policy Evaluation Criteria
- 1.2.2 Intervention Logic
- 1.2.3 Evaluation Methods
- Model-Based Policy Evaluation
- Simple Incidence Analysis
- Micro-simulation Partial Equilibrium Models
- Macro or General Equilibrium Models
- Micro-Macro Linked Models
- 1.3 Econometric Policy Evaluation
- 1.4 Modeling and Evaluation of Policy Processes
- 2 Contributions to This Volume
- References
- Part I: Modeling Economic Policies
- Macro-economic Models: Comparative Analysis of Strategies and Long Term Outlook for Growth and Poverty Reduction Among ECOWAS ...
- 1 Introduction
- 1.1 What Are the Key Sources of Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction in ECOWAS Countries?
- 1.2 Are ECOWAS Countries on Track to Meeting CAADPś Growth and Poverty Reduction Targets by 2015?
- 1.3 How Fast Should ECOWAS Countries Grow to Achieve the Poverty MDG? How Much Would They Have to Spend?
- 1.4 How Consistent Are Agricultural Investment Priorities and Related Growth and Poverty Outcomes Among ECOWAS Countries?
- 2 Conclusion
- ANNEX
- Description of the Model Used to Simulate Long Term Growth and Poverty Reduction Outcomes
- Model Specification and Calibration Data
- Mathematical Model Description
- References
- Macro-economic Models: How to Spend Ugandaś Expected Oil Revenues? A CGE Analysis of the Agricultural and Poverty Impacts of ...
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Investing Oil Revenues: Options and Challenges
- 2.1 Revenue Stabilization Options
- 2.2 Investment Spending Options
- 2.2.1 Investment for Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction.
- 2.2.2 Transferring Rents to Citizens
- 3 CGE Model Simulation Setup
- 3.1 The Ugandan Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model
- 3.1.1 Private Production and Consumption
- 3.1.2 Macroeconomic Closures and Dynamics
- 3.2 Simulation Setup
- 3.2.1 Baseline Scenario
- 3.2.2 Modeling Oil Production and Refining
- 3.2.3 Oil Simulation Experiments
- 4 Model Results
- 4.1 Public Investment Scenarios with No Productivity Spillover Effects
- 4.1.1 Spending All Revenues on Infrastructure (FND00INV)
- 4.1.2 Transferring Oil Revenues to a Foreign Oil Fund (FND50INV)
- 4.1.3 Transferring Rents to Citizens (FND00IandH)
- 4.2 Public Investment Scenarios with Productivity Spillover Effects
- 5 Conclusion
- References
- Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Impact of the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) Program of Ugan...
- 1 Data and Methods
- 1.1 Data
- 1.2 Estimation Approach
- 1.2.1 Variables
- 2 Results
- 2.1 Determinants of Participation in the Program: Overlap in Covariate Distributions
- 2.1.1 Estimated Treatment Effects of the Program on Agricultural Income (INC)
- 3 Conclusions and Implications
- References
- Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Modeling Agricultural Growth and Nutrition Linkages: Lessons from Tanzania an...
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Methods
- 2.1 IFPRIś Standard Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model
- 2.2 Macro-Micro Linkages and Microsimulation Modeling
- 3 Country Case Studies
- 3.1 Tanzania
- 3.1.1 Notes on the Methodological Framework
- 3.1.2 Tanzaniaś Recent Growth Performance
- 3.1.3 Comparing Business-as-Usual Growth to Broad-Based Agricultural Growth
- 3.1.4 Identifying Priority Sectors for Agricultural Growth
- 3.1.5 Policy Recommendations
- 3.2 Malawi
- 3.2.1 Cross-Country Evidence on the Relationship Between Growth and Nutrition
- 3.2.2 Malawiś Farm Input Subsidy Program.
- 3.2.3 Modeled Scenarios and Results
- 3.2.4 Policy Recommendations
- 4 The Way Forward
- References
- Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioral Microsimulations
- 1 Introduction
- 2 A Stylized Macro-Micro Model with a Behavioral Micro-simulation
- 2.1 The Macro Model and the Link Variables
- 2.2 A Prototype Income Generation Model: The Micro-simulation
- 3 Applications
- 3.1 The Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Brazil
- 3.2 The Poverty Impacts of the Bolivian Gas Boom
- 3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
- 4 Conclusions
- References
- Part II: Modeling Policy Processes
- Modeling and Evaluation of Political Processes: A New Quantitative Approach
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The Evolutionary Computable General Political Economy Equilibrium Model: An Overview
- 2.1 General Structure and Characterization of an eCGPE
- 2.2 What Is the Purpose and Advantage of a Quantitative Policy Analysis Tool?
- 3 Theoretical Background of the eCGPE
- 3.1 Module I: Legislative Decisionmaking
- 3.1.1 The Mean Voter Rule
- 3.1.2 How the Mean Voter Rule Works: An Illustrative Example
- 3.1.3 Endogenous Derivation of Legislators ́Policy Preferences
- 3.2 Module II: Transformation of Policy Choices into Policy Outcomes
- 3.2.1 Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)
- 3.2.2 Policy Impact Function
- 3.3 Module III: Interest Mediation Module
- 3.3.1 Modeling Voter Behavior
- 3.3.2 Lobbying Activities
- 3.4 Module IV: Belief Formation Module
- 3.4.1 Communication Learning
- 4 Communication Networks and Policy Learning: A Simple Example
- 4.1 Observational Policy Learning
- 4.2 Reinforcement Learning
- 4.3 Combination of Observational and Communication Learning
- 5 Summary and Conclusion
- References.
- A Network Based Approach to Evaluate Participatory Policy Processes: An Application to CAADP in Malawi
- 1 Introduction
- 2 A Theoretical Framework for Evaluating Policy Processes
- 2.1 Government Accountability
- 2.2 Government Capture
- 2.3 Political Knowledge
- 2.4 Political Ownership
- 3 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Processes in Malawi
- 3.1 Policy Reform Context
- 3.1.1 Study Design and Data Collection
- 4 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Process in Malawi: A Network Approach
- 4.1 Relevant Organizations in the CAADP Policy Domain
- 4.2 Identified Network Structures of Political Participation in Malawi
- 4.2.1 Political Communication
- 4.2.2 Lobbying
- 4.3 Political Influence and Power
- 5 Evaluating Identified Participation Structures
- 6 From Diagnosis to Therapy: Lessons Concerning Efficient Design of Participatory Policy Processes
- 7 Conclusion
- Appendix
- References
- The Formation of Elite Communication Networks in Malawi: A Bayesian Econometric Approach
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Determinants of Political Communication Networks
- 2.1 Theoretical Considerations
- 2.2 Empirical Determinants of Communication
- 3 Study Design and Econometric Model Framework
- 3.1 Study Design
- 3.2 Econometric Model
- 4 Empirical Results
- 4.1 Homophily in Interests and Other Determinants
- 4.2 Knowledge
- 4.3 Structural Factors
- 5 Discussion
- 6 Conclusion
- References
- Voter Behavior and Government Performance in Malawi: An Application of a Probabilistic Voting Model
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Related Literature
- 3 The Model
- 3.1 The Voters
- 3.2 Parties and the Government
- 3.3 Political Equilibrium
- 3.4 Voter Behavior and Government Performance
- 4 Econometric Models and Estimation Strategy
- 4.1 Data
- 4.1.1 The Party System and Elections in Malawi
- 4.1.2 Afrobarometer Voter Survey
- 4.2 Results.
- 4.2.1 Goodness of Fit and Model Selection
- 4.2.2 Voting Behavior in Malawi
- 4.2.3 Voter Behavior and Government Performance
- 4.2.4 Relating Government Performance and Voting Behavior
- 5 Conclusion and Outlook for Future Work
- References
- Whither Participation? Evaluating Participatory Policy Processes Using the CGPE Approach: The Case of CAADP in Malawi
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Technical Implementation and Empirical Specification of the CGPE model
- 2.1 Technical Implementation in GAMS
- 2.2 Empirical Calibration of the eCGPE and Data
- 2.3 Estimation of the Policy Impact Function
- 2.4 Estimation of Individual Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge
- 3 Results
- 3.1 Political Incentives
- 3.2 Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge
- 3.3 Assessing Political Knowledge
- 4 Political Diagnosis
- 4.1 Assessing Political Performance
- 4.1.1 Knowledge or Incentive Gaps?
- 4.2 From Diagnosis to Political Therapy: Simulating Political Performance Gaps with Increased Stakeholder Participation
- 4.2.1 Simulation Scenarios
- 4.2.2 Benchmark Scenarios
- 4.2.3 Simulating Constitutional Reforms
- 4.2.4 Simulating the Informal Political Influence of Nongovernmental Organizations
- 4.3 Whither Participation?
- 5 Conclusion and Outlook on Future Research
- Appendix
- References
- Part III: Concluding Remarks
- Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support Systems (SAKSS): Translating Evidence into Action
- 1 Introduction
- 2 The Strategic Analysis Concept and Approach
- 2.1 How Can Agriculture Contribute the Most to Overall Development Objectives?
- 2.2 How Should Resources Be Mobilized and Allocated More Efficiently?
- 2.3 How Can Individual Policies and Interventions Be Better Targeted?
- 2.4 How Can Lessons Be Monitored and Evaluated During and After Implementation?.
- 2.4.1 Ensuring Availability and Reliability of Underlying Data Systems.