Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa : : Modeling and Evaluation.

• Superior document: Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series
• Author: Henning, Christian.
• TeilnehmendeR: Badiane, Ousmane.; Krampe, Eva.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2017.; ©2018.
• Year of Publication: 2017
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (355 pages)

Table of Contents

Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Acronyms -- Policy Support Through Modeling and Evaluation: Methodological Challenges and Practical Solutions -- 1 A General Framework for Policy and Policy Process Evaluation -- 1.1 The Basic Setup -- 1.2 Policy Impact Evaluation -- 1.2.1 Policy Evaluation Criteria -- 1.2.2 Intervention Logic -- 1.2.3 Evaluation Methods -- Model-Based Policy Evaluation -- Simple Incidence Analysis -- Micro-simulation Partial Equilibrium Models -- Macro or General Equilibrium Models -- Micro-Macro Linked Models -- 1.3 Econometric Policy Evaluation -- 1.4 Modeling and Evaluation of Policy Processes -- 2 Contributions to This Volume -- References -- Part I: Modeling Economic Policies -- Macro-economic Models: Comparative Analysis of Strategies and Long Term Outlook for Growth and Poverty Reduction Among ECOWAS ... -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 What Are the Key Sources of Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction in ECOWAS Countries? -- 1.2 Are ECOWAS Countries on Track to Meeting CAADPś Growth and Poverty Reduction Targets by 2015? -- 1.3 How Fast Should ECOWAS Countries Grow to Achieve the Poverty MDG? How Much Would They Have to Spend? -- 1.4 How Consistent Are Agricultural Investment Priorities and Related Growth and Poverty Outcomes Among ECOWAS Countries? -- 2 Conclusion -- ANNEX -- Description of the Model Used to Simulate Long Term Growth and Poverty Reduction Outcomes -- Model Specification and Calibration Data -- Mathematical Model Description -- References -- Macro-economic Models: How to Spend Ugandaś Expected Oil Revenues? A CGE Analysis of the Agricultural and Poverty Impacts of ... -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Investing Oil Revenues: Options and Challenges -- 2.1 Revenue Stabilization Options -- 2.2 Investment Spending Options -- 2.2.1 Investment for Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction.

2.2.2 Transferring Rents to Citizens -- 3 CGE Model Simulation Setup -- 3.1 The Ugandan Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model -- 3.1.1 Private Production and Consumption -- 3.1.2 Macroeconomic Closures and Dynamics -- 3.2 Simulation Setup -- 3.2.1 Baseline Scenario -- 3.2.2 Modeling Oil Production and Refining -- 3.2.3 Oil Simulation Experiments -- 4 Model Results -- 4.1 Public Investment Scenarios with No Productivity Spillover Effects -- 4.1.1 Spending All Revenues on Infrastructure (FND00INV) -- 4.1.2 Transferring Oil Revenues to a Foreign Oil Fund (FND50INV) -- 4.1.3 Transferring Rents to Citizens (FND00IandH) -- 4.2 Public Investment Scenarios with Productivity Spillover Effects -- 5 Conclusion -- References -- Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Impact of the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) Program of Ugan... -- 1 Data and Methods -- 1.1 Data -- 1.2 Estimation Approach -- 1.2.1 Variables -- 2 Results -- 2.1 Determinants of Participation in the Program: Overlap in Covariate Distributions -- 2.1.1 Estimated Treatment Effects of the Program on Agricultural Income (INC) -- 3 Conclusions and Implications -- References -- Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Modeling Agricultural Growth and Nutrition Linkages: Lessons from Tanzania an... -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Methods -- 2.1 IFPRIś Standard Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model -- 2.2 Macro-Micro Linkages and Microsimulation Modeling -- 3 Country Case Studies -- 3.1 Tanzania -- 3.1.1 Notes on the Methodological Framework -- 3.1.2 Tanzaniaś Recent Growth Performance -- 3.1.3 Comparing Business-as-Usual Growth to Broad-Based Agricultural Growth -- 3.1.4 Identifying Priority Sectors for Agricultural Growth -- 3.1.5 Policy Recommendations -- 3.2 Malawi -- 3.2.1 Cross-Country Evidence on the Relationship Between Growth and Nutrition -- 3.2.2 Malawiś Farm Input Subsidy Program.

3.2.3 Modeled Scenarios and Results -- 3.2.4 Policy Recommendations -- 4 The Way Forward -- References -- Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioral Microsimulations -- 1 Introduction -- 2 A Stylized Macro-Micro Model with a Behavioral Micro-simulation -- 2.1 The Macro Model and the Link Variables -- 2.2 A Prototype Income Generation Model: The Micro-simulation -- 3 Applications -- 3.1 The Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Brazil -- 3.2 The Poverty Impacts of the Bolivian Gas Boom -- 3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- Part II: Modeling Policy Processes -- Modeling and Evaluation of Political Processes: A New Quantitative Approach -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Evolutionary Computable General Political Economy Equilibrium Model: An Overview -- 2.1 General Structure and Characterization of an eCGPE -- 2.2 What Is the Purpose and Advantage of a Quantitative Policy Analysis Tool? -- 3 Theoretical Background of the eCGPE -- 3.1 Module I: Legislative Decisionmaking -- 3.1.1 The Mean Voter Rule -- 3.1.2 How the Mean Voter Rule Works: An Illustrative Example -- 3.1.3 Endogenous Derivation of Legislators ́Policy Preferences -- 3.2 Module II: Transformation of Policy Choices into Policy Outcomes -- 3.2.1 Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) -- 3.2.2 Policy Impact Function -- 3.3 Module III: Interest Mediation Module -- 3.3.1 Modeling Voter Behavior -- 3.3.2 Lobbying Activities -- 3.4 Module IV: Belief Formation Module -- 3.4.1 Communication Learning -- 4 Communication Networks and Policy Learning: A Simple Example -- 4.1 Observational Policy Learning -- 4.2 Reinforcement Learning -- 4.3 Combination of Observational and Communication Learning -- 5 Summary and Conclusion -- References.

A Network Based Approach to Evaluate Participatory Policy Processes: An Application to CAADP in Malawi -- 1 Introduction -- 2 A Theoretical Framework for Evaluating Policy Processes -- 2.1 Government Accountability -- 2.2 Government Capture -- 2.3 Political Knowledge -- 2.4 Political Ownership -- 3 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Processes in Malawi -- 3.1 Policy Reform Context -- 3.1.1 Study Design and Data Collection -- 4 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Process in Malawi: A Network Approach -- 4.1 Relevant Organizations in the CAADP Policy Domain -- 4.2 Identified Network Structures of Political Participation in Malawi -- 4.2.1 Political Communication -- 4.2.2 Lobbying -- 4.3 Political Influence and Power -- 5 Evaluating Identified Participation Structures -- 6 From Diagnosis to Therapy: Lessons Concerning Efficient Design of Participatory Policy Processes -- 7 Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- The Formation of Elite Communication Networks in Malawi: A Bayesian Econometric Approach -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Determinants of Political Communication Networks -- 2.1 Theoretical Considerations -- 2.2 Empirical Determinants of Communication -- 3 Study Design and Econometric Model Framework -- 3.1 Study Design -- 3.2 Econometric Model -- 4 Empirical Results -- 4.1 Homophily in Interests and Other Determinants -- 4.2 Knowledge -- 4.3 Structural Factors -- 5 Discussion -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- Voter Behavior and Government Performance in Malawi: An Application of a Probabilistic Voting Model -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Related Literature -- 3 The Model -- 3.1 The Voters -- 3.2 Parties and the Government -- 3.3 Political Equilibrium -- 3.4 Voter Behavior and Government Performance -- 4 Econometric Models and Estimation Strategy -- 4.1 Data -- 4.1.1 The Party System and Elections in Malawi -- 4.1.2 Afrobarometer Voter Survey -- 4.2 Results.

4.2.1 Goodness of Fit and Model Selection -- 4.2.2 Voting Behavior in Malawi -- 4.2.3 Voter Behavior and Government Performance -- 4.2.4 Relating Government Performance and Voting Behavior -- 5 Conclusion and Outlook for Future Work -- References -- Whither Participation? Evaluating Participatory Policy Processes Using the CGPE Approach: The Case of CAADP in Malawi -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Technical Implementation and Empirical Specification of the CGPE model -- 2.1 Technical Implementation in GAMS -- 2.2 Empirical Calibration of the eCGPE and Data -- 2.3 Estimation of the Policy Impact Function -- 2.4 Estimation of Individual Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge -- 3 Results -- 3.1 Political Incentives -- 3.2 Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge -- 3.3 Assessing Political Knowledge -- 4 Political Diagnosis -- 4.1 Assessing Political Performance -- 4.1.1 Knowledge or Incentive Gaps? -- 4.2 From Diagnosis to Political Therapy: Simulating Political Performance Gaps with Increased Stakeholder Participation -- 4.2.1 Simulation Scenarios -- 4.2.2 Benchmark Scenarios -- 4.2.3 Simulating Constitutional Reforms -- 4.2.4 Simulating the Informal Political Influence of Nongovernmental Organizations -- 4.3 Whither Participation? -- 5 Conclusion and Outlook on Future Research -- Appendix -- References -- Part III: Concluding Remarks -- Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support Systems (SAKSS): Translating Evidence into Action -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Strategic Analysis Concept and Approach -- 2.1 How Can Agriculture Contribute the Most to Overall Development Objectives? -- 2.2 How Should Resources Be Mobilized and Allocated More Efficiently? -- 2.3 How Can Individual Policies and Interventions Be Better Targeted? -- 2.4 How Can Lessons Be Monitored and Evaluated During and After Implementation?.

2.4.1 Ensuring Availability and Reliability of Underlying Data Systems.