Demystifying Climate Models : : A Users Guide to Earth System Models.
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| Superior document: | Earth Systems Data and Models Series ; v.2 |
|---|---|
| : | |
| TeilnehmendeR: | |
| Place / Publishing House: | Berlin, Heidelberg : : Springer Berlin / Heidelberg,, 2016. ©2016. |
| Year of Publication: | 2016 |
| Edition: | 1st ed. |
| Language: | English |
| Series: | Earth Systems Data and Models Series
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| Online Access: | |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (282 pages) |
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Table of Contents:
- Intro
- Acknowledgments
- Contents
- About the Authors
- Introduction
- Part I Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts
- 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling
- 1.1 What Is Climate?
- 1.2 What Is a Model?
- 1.3 Uncertainty
- 1.3.1 Model Uncertainty
- 1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty
- 1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty
- 1.3.4 Total Uncertainty
- 1.4 Summary
- 2 Components of the Climate System
- 2.1 Components of the Earth System
- 2.1.1 The Atmosphere
- 2.1.2 The Ocean and Sea Ice
- 2.1.3 Terrestrial Systems
- 2.2 Timescales and Interactions
- 2.3 Summary
- 3 Climate Change and Global Warming
- 3.1 Coupling of the Pieces
- 3.2 Forcing the Climate System
- 3.3 Climate History
- 3.4 Understanding Where the Energy Goes
- 3.5 Summary
- 4 Essence of a Climate Model
- 4.1 Scientific Principles in Climate Models
- 4.2 Basic Formulation and Constraints
- 4.2.1 Finite Pieces
- 4.2.2 Processes
- 4.2.3 Marching Forward in Time
- 4.2.4 Examples of Finite Element Models
- 4.3 Coupled Models
- 4.4 A Brief History of Climate Models
- 4.5 Computational Aspects of Climate Modeling
- 4.5.1 The Computer Program
- 4.5.2 Running a Model
- 4.6 Summary
- Part II Model Mechanics
- 5 Simulating the Atmosphere
- 5.1 Role of the Atmosphere in Climate
- 5.2 Types of Atmospheric Models
- 5.3 General Circulation
- 5.4 Parts of an Atmosphere Model
- 5.4.1 Clouds
- 5.4.2 Radiative Energy
- 5.4.3 Chemistry
- 5.5 Weather Models Versus Climate Models
- 5.6 Challenges for Atmospheric Models
- 5.6.1 Uncertain and Unknown Processes
- 5.6.2 Scales
- 5.6.3 Feedbacks
- 5.6.4 Cloud Feedback
- 5.7 Applications: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones
- 5.8 Summary
- 6 Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice
- 6.1 Understanding the Ocean
- 6.1.1 Structure of the Ocean
- 6.1.2 Forcing of the Ocean
- 6.2 "Limited" Ocean Models.
- 6.3 Ocean General Circulation Models
- 6.3.1 Topography and Grids
- 6.3.2 Deep Ocean
- 6.3.3 Eddies in the Ocean
- 6.3.4 Surface Ocean
- 6.3.5 Structure of an Ocean Model
- 6.3.6 Ocean Versus Atmosphere Models
- 6.4 Sea-Ice Modeling
- 6.5 The Ocean Carbon Cycle
- 6.6 Challenges
- 6.6.1 Challenges in Ocean Modeling
- 6.6.2 Challenges in Sea Ice Modeling
- 6.7 Applications: Sea-Level Rise, Norfolk, Virginia
- 6.8 Summary
- 7 Simulating Terrestrial Systems
- 7.1 Role of the Land Surface in Climate
- 7.1.1 Precipitation and the Water Cycle
- 7.1.2 Vegetation
- 7.1.3 Ice and Snow
- 7.1.4 Human Impacts
- 7.2 Building a Land Surface Simulation
- 7.2.1 Evolution of a Terrestrial System Model
- 7.2.2 Biogeophysics: Surface Fluxes and Heat
- 7.2.3 Biogeophysics: Hydrology
- 7.2.4 Ecosystem Dynamics (Vegetation and Land Cover/Use Change)
- 7.2.5 Summary: Structure of a Land Model
- 7.3 Biogeochemistry: Carbon and Other Nutrient Cycles
- 7.4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions
- 7.5 Land Ice
- 7.6 Humans
- 7.7 Integrated Assessment Models
- 7.8 Challenges in Terrestrial System Modeling
- 7.8.1 Ice Sheet Modeling
- 7.8.2 Surface Albedo Feedback
- 7.8.3 Carbon Feedback
- 7.9 Applications: Wolf and Moose Ecosystem, Isle Royale National Park
- 7.10 Summary
- 8 Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity
- 8.1 Types of Coupled Models
- 8.1.1 Regional Models
- 8.1.2 Statistical Models and Downscaling
- 8.1.3 Integrated Assessment Models
- 8.2 Coupling Models Together: Common Threads
- 8.3 Key Interactions in Climate Models
- 8.3.1 Intermixing of the Feedback Loops
- 8.3.2 Water Feedbacks
- 8.3.3 Albedo Feedbacks
- 8.3.4 Ocean Feedbacks
- 8.3.5 Sea-Level Change
- 8.4 Coupled Modes of Climate Variability
- 8.4.1 Tropical Cyclones
- 8.4.2 Monsoons
- 8.4.3 El Niño
- 8.4.4 Precipitation and the Land Surface.
- 8.4.5 Carbon Cycle and Climate
- 8.5 Challenges
- 8.6 Applications: Integrated Assessment of Water Resources
- 8.7 Summary
- Part III Using Models
- 9 Model Evaluation
- 9.1 Evaluation Versus Validation
- 9.1.1 Evaluation and Missing Information
- 9.1.2 Observations
- 9.1.3 Model Improvement
- 9.2 Climate Model Evaluation
- 9.2.1 Types of Comparisons
- 9.2.2 Model Simulations
- 9.2.3 Using Model Evaluation to Guide Further Observations
- 9.3 Predicting the Future: Forecasts Versus Projections
- 9.3.1 Forecasts
- 9.3.2 Projections
- 9.4 Applications of Climate Model Evaluation: Ozone Assessment
- 9.5 Summary
- 10 Predictability
- 10.1 Knowledge and Key Uncertainties
- 10.1.1 Physics of the System
- 10.1.2 Variability
- 10.1.3 Sensitivity to Changes
- 10.2 Types of Uncertainty and Timescales
- 10.2.1 Predicting the Near Term: Initial Condition Uncertainty
- 10.2.2 Predicting the Next 30-50 Years: Scenario Uncertainty
- 10.2.3 Predicting the Long Term: Model Uncertainty Versus Scenario Uncertainty
- 10.3 Ensembles: Multiple Models and Simulations
- 10.4 Applications: Developing and Using Scenarios
- 10.5 Summary
- 11 Results of Current Models
- 11.1 Organization of Climate Model Results
- 11.2 Prediction and Uncertainty
- 11.2.1 Goals of Prediction
- 11.2.2 Uncertainty
- 11.2.3 Why Models?
- 11.3 What Is the Confidence in Predictions?
- 11.3.1 Confident Predictions
- 11.3.1.1 Temperature
- 11.3.1.2 Precipitation
- 11.3.2 Uncertain Predictions: Where to Be Cautious
- 11.3.3 Bad Predictions
- 11.3.4 How Do We Predict Extreme Events?
- 11.4 Climate Impacts and Extremes
- 11.4.1 Tropical Cyclones
- 11.4.2 Stream Flow and Extreme Events
- 11.4.3 Electricity Demand and Extreme Events
- 11.5 Application: Climate Model Impacts in Colorado
- 11.6 Summary.
- 12 Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners
- 12.1 Knowledge Systems
- 12.2 Interpretation and Translation
- 12.2.1 Barriers to the Use of Climate Model Projections
- 12.2.2 Downscaled Datasets
- 12.2.3 Climate Assessments
- 12.2.4 Expert Analysis
- 12.3 Uncertainty
- 12.3.1 Ensembles
- 12.3.2 Uncertainty in Assessment Reports
- 12.4 Framing Uncertainty
- 12.5 Summary
- 13 Summary and Final Thoughts
- 13.1 What Is Climate?
- 13.2 Key Features of a Climate Model
- 13.3 Components of the Climate System
- 13.3.1 The Atmosphere
- 13.3.2 The Ocean
- 13.3.3 Terrestrial Systems
- 13.3.4 Coupled Components
- 13.4 Evaluation and Uncertainty
- 13.4.1 Evaluation
- 13.4.2 Uncertainty
- 13.5 What We Know (and Do not Know)
- 13.6 The Future of Climate Modeling
- 13.6.1 Increasing Resolution
- 13.6.2 New and Improved Processes
- 13.6.3 Challenges
- 13.7 Final Thoughts
- Climate Modeling Text Glossary
- Index.