Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals : : Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-Energy GHG Pathways for +1. 5°C And +2°C.

• Author: Teske, Sven.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2019.; {copy}2019.
• Year of Publication: 2019
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (535 pages)

Table of Contents

Intro -- Dedication -- Climate Model: Foreword -- Contact Information -- Executive Summary -- Acknowledgement -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- References -- Chapter 2: State of Research -- 2.1 Scientific Status Quo of Climate Change Research -- 2.1.1 Basics of Climate Change and Radiative Forcing -- 2.1.1.1 Anthropogenic Contribution -- 2.1.1.2 Carbon Budget and Future Warming -- 2.1.2 Carbon Budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming -- 2.2 Development of Energy Markets-Past and Present -- 2.2.1 Global Trends in Renewable Energy in 2018 -- 2.2.1.1 Trends in the Renewable Power Sector -- 2.2.1.2 Heating and Cooling -- 2.2.1.3 Transport -- References -- Chapter 3: Methodology -- 3.1 100% Renewable Energy-Modelling Approach -- 3.2 Global Mapping-Renewable Energy Potential in Space-Constrained Environments: [R]E-SPACE -- 3.3 Transport Energy Model-TRAEM -- 3.3.1 Transport Model Structure -- 3.3.2 Transport Data -- 3.3.3 Transport Model Output -- 3.4 Energy System Model (EM) -- 3.5 [R]E 24/7 (UTS-ISF) -- 3.5.1 [R]E 24/7-Model Structure -- 3.5.2 Development and Calculation of Load Curves -- 3.5.3 Load Curve Calculation for Households -- 3.5.4 Load Curve Calculation for Business and Industry -- 3.5.5 Load Distribution by Cluster -- 3.5.6 The [R]E 24/7 Dispatch Module -- 3.5.7 Meteorological Data -- 3.5.7.1 Solar and Wind Time Series -- 3.5.8 Interconnection Capacities -- 3.6 Employment Modelling (UTS-ISF) -- 3.6.1 Quantitative Employment Calculation -- 3.6.2 Occupational Employment Modelling -- 3.7 Material and Metal Resources Analysis (UTS-ISF) -- 3.7.1 Methodology-Material and Metal Resources Analysis -- 3.8 Climate Model -- 3.8.1 Deriving Non-CO2 GHG Pathways -- 3.8.1.1 Regional Definitions -- 3.8.1.2 Harmonization: Emission Category Adjustments -- 3.8.1.3 A New Quantile Regression Method for Non-CO2 Gases.

3.8.1.4 'Pseudo' Fossil and Industrial CO2 Extensions Beyond 2050 -- 3.8.1.5 Land-Use Assumptions -- 3.8.2 Model for the Assessment of GHG-Induced Climate Change -- References -- Chapter 4: Mitigation Scenarios for Non-energy GHG -- 4.1 Land-Use CO2 emissions -- 4.1.1 Other GHG and Aerosol Emissions -- References -- Chapter 5: Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways -- 5.1 Scenario Definition -- 5.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario (Reference Scenario) -- 5.1.2 The 2.0 °C Scenario -- 5.1.3 The 1.5 °C Scenario -- 5.2 Scenario World Regions and Clusters -- 5.2.1 OECD North America -- 5.2.2 Latin America -- 5.2.3 OECD Europe -- 5.2.4 Eastern Europe/Eurasia -- 5.2.5 The Middle East -- 5.2.6 Africa -- 5.2.7 Non-OECD Asia -- 5.2.8 India -- 5.2.9 China -- 5.2.10 OECD Pacific -- 5.3 Key Assumptions for Scenarios -- 5.3.1 Population Growth -- 5.3.2 GDP Development -- 5.3.3 Technology Cost Projections -- 5.3.3.1 Power and CHP Technologies -- 5.3.3.2 Heating Technologies -- 5.3.4 Fuel Cost Projections -- 5.3.4.1 Fossil Fuels -- 5.3.4.2 Biomass Prices -- 5.3.5 CO2 Costs -- 5.4 Energy Scenario Narratives and Assumptions for World Regions -- 5.4.1 Efficiency and Energy Intensities -- 5.4.1.1 Industrial Electricity Demand -- 5.4.1.2 Demand for Fuel to Produce Heat in the Industry Sector -- 5.4.1.3 Electricity Demand in the 'Residential and Other' Sector -- 5.4.1.4 Fuel Demand for Heat in the 'Residential and Other' Sector -- 5.4.1.5 Resulting Energy Intensities by Region -- 5.4.2 RES Deployment for Electricity Generation -- 5.4.3 RES Deployment for Heat Generation -- 5.4.4 Co-generation of Heat and Power and District Heating -- 5.4.5 Other Assumptions for Stationary Processes -- References -- Chapter 6: Transport Transition Concepts -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Global Transport Picture in 2015 -- 6.3 Measures to Reduce and Decarbonise Transport Energy Consumption.

6.3.1 Powertrain Electrification -- 6.3.1.1 The 5.0 °C Scenario -- 6.3.1.2 The 2.0 °C Scenario -- 6.3.1.3 The 1.5 °C Scenario -- 6.3.2 Mode-Specific Efficiency and Improvements Over Time -- 6.3.3 Road Transport -- 6.3.3.1 Passenger Cars -- 6.3.3.2 Light and Heavy Freight Vehicles -- 6.3.3.3 Buses -- 6.3.3.4 Two- and Three-Wheel Vehicles -- 6.3.3.5 Rail Transport -- 6.3.3.6 Water and Air Transport -- 6.3.4 Replacement of Fossil Fuels by Biofuels and Synfuels -- 6.3.5 Operational Improvements and Novel Service Concepts -- 6.3.5.1 Passenger Transport -- 6.3.5.2 Freight Transport -- 6.4 Transport Performance -- 6.4.1 Passenger Transport Modes -- 6.4.2 Freight Transport Modes -- References -- Chapter 7: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment -- 7.1 Global Renewable Energy Potentials -- 7.1.1 Bioenergy -- 7.2 Economic Renewable Energy Potential in Space-Constrained Environments -- 7.2.1 Constrains for Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Power Plants -- 7.2.2 Mapping Solar and Wind Potential -- References -- Chapter 8: Energy Scenario Results -- 8.1 Global: Long-Term Energy Pathways -- 8.1.1 Global: Projection of Overall Energy Intensity -- 8.1.2 Global: Final Energy Demand by Sector (Excluding Bunkers) -- 8.1.3 Global: Electricity Generation -- 8.1.4 Global: Future Costs of Electricity Generation -- 8.1.5 Global: Future Investments in the Power Sector -- 8.1.6 Global: Energy Supply for Heating -- 8.1.7 Global: Future Investments in the Heating Sector -- 8.1.8 Global: Transport -- 8.1.9 Global: Development of CO2 Emissions -- 8.1.10 Global: Primary Energy Consumption -- 8.2 Global: Bunker Fuels -- 8.3 Global: Utilization of Solar and Wind Potential -- 8.4 Global: Power Sector Analysis -- 8.4.1 Global: Development of Power Plant Capacities -- 8.4.2 Global: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities -- 8.4.3 Global: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load.

8.4.4 Global System-Relevant Technologies-Storage and Dispatch -- 8.4.5 Global: Required Storage Capacities for the Stationary Power Sector -- 8.5 OECD North America -- 8.5.1 OECD North America: Long-Term Energy Pathways -- 8.5.1.1 OECD North America: Final Energy Demand by Sector -- 8.5.1.2 OECD North America: Electricity Generation -- 8.5.1.3 OECD North America: Future Costs of Electricity Generation -- 8.5.1.4 OECD North America: Future Investments in the Power Sector -- 8.5.1.5 OECD North America: Energy Supply for Heating -- 8.5.1.6 OECD North America: Future Investments in the Heating Sector -- 8.5.1.7 OECD North America: Transport -- 8.5.1.8 OECD North America: Development of CO2 Emissions -- 8.5.1.9 OECD North America: Primary Energy Consumption -- 8.5.2 Regional Results: Power Sector Analysis -- 8.5.3 OECD North America: Power Sector Analysis -- 8.5.3.1 OECD North America: Development of Power Plant Capacities -- 8.5.3.2 OECD North America: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities -- 8.5.3.3 OECD North America: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load -- 8.6 Latin America -- 8.6.1 Latin America: Long-Term Energy Pathways -- 8.6.1.1 Latin America: Final Energy Demand by Sector -- 8.6.1.2 Latin America: Electricity Generation -- 8.6.1.3 Latin America: Future Costs of Electricity Generation -- 8.6.1.4 Latin America: Future Investments in the Power Sector -- 8.6.1.5 Latin America: Energy Supply for Heating -- 8.6.1.6 Latin America: Future Investments in the Heating Sector -- 8.6.1.7 Latin America: Transport -- 8.6.1.8 Latin America: Development of CO2 Emissions -- 8.6.1.9 Latin America: Primary Energy Consumption -- 8.6.2 Latin America: Power Sector Analysis -- 8.6.2.1 Latin America: Development of Power Plant Capacities -- 8.6.2.2 Latin America: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities.

8.6.2.3 Latin America: Development of Load, Generation and Residual Load -- 8.7 OECD Europe -- 8.7.1 OECD Europe: Long-Term Energy Pathways -- 8.7.1.1 OECD Europe: Final Energy Demand by Sector -- 8.7.1.2 OECD Europe: Electricity Generation -- 8.7.1.3 OECD Europe: Future Costs of Electricity Generation -- 8.7.1.4 OECD Europe: Future Investments in the Power Sector -- 8.7.1.5 OECD Europe: Energy Supply for Heating -- 8.7.1.6 OECD Europe: Future Investments in the Heating Sector -- 8.7.1.7 OECD Europe: Transport -- 8.7.1.8 OECD Europe: Development of CO2 Emissions -- 8.7.1.9 OECD Europe: Primary Energy Consumption -- 8.7.2 OECD Europe: Power Sector Analysis -- 8.7.2.1 OECD Europe: Development of Power Plant Capacities -- 8.7.2.2 OECD Europe: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities -- 8.7.2.3 OECD Europe: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load -- 8.8 Africa -- 8.8.1 Africa: Long-Term Energy Pathways -- 8.8.1.1 Africa: Final Energy Demand by Sector -- 8.8.1.2 Africa: Electricity Generation -- 8.8.1.3 Africa: Future Costs of Electricity Generation -- 8.8.1.4 Africa: Future Investments in the Power Sector -- 8.8.1.5 Africa: Energy Supply for Heating -- 8.8.1.6 Africa: Future Investments in the Heating Sector -- 8.8.1.7 Africa: Transport -- 8.8.1.8 Africa: Development of CO2 Emissions -- 8.8.1.9 Africa: Primary Energy Consumption -- 8.8.2 Africa: Power Sector Analysis -- 8.8.2.1 Africa: Development of Power Plant Capacities -- 8.8.2.2 Africa: Utilization of Power-Generation Capacities -- 8.8.2.3 Africa: Development of Load, Generation, and Residual Load -- 8.9 The Middle East -- 8.9.1 The Middle East: Long-Term Energy Pathways -- 8.9.1.1 The Middle East: Final Energy Demand by Sector -- 8.9.1.2 The Middle East: Electricity Generation -- 8.9.1.3 The Middle East: Future Costs of Electricity Generation.

8.9.1.4 The Middle East: Future Investments in the Power Sector.