Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370.

• Superior document: SpringerBriefs in Electrical and Computer Engineering Series
• Author: Davey, Sam.
• TeilnehmendeR: Gordon, Neil.; Holland, Ian.; Rutten, Mark.; Williams, Jason.
• Place / Publishing House: Singapore : : Springer Singapore Pte. Limited,, 2016.; Ã2016.
• Year of Publication: 2016
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: SpringerBriefs in Electrical and Computer Engineering Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (124 pages)

Table of Contents

Intro -- Foreword I -- Foreword II -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- About the Authors -- Acronyms -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Summary of Results -- 2 Factual Description of Accident and Available Information -- 3 The Bayesian Approach -- 3.1 The Problem and its Conceptual Solution -- 3.1.1 Prediction -- 3.1.2 Update -- 3.2 The Particle Filter -- 3.3 Rao--Blackwellised Particle Filter -- 4 Aircraft Prior Based on Primary Radar Data -- 5 Measurement Model, Satellite Communications -- 5.1 Satellite Communications System -- 5.2 Burst Timing Offset -- 5.3 Burst Frequency Offset -- 5.4 C-Channel Telephone Calls -- 5.5 Information Content of Measurements -- 6 Aircraft Cruise Dynamics -- 6.1 Ornstein--Uhlenbeck Process -- 6.1.1 Determining Process Parameters -- 6.2 Mach Number -- 6.2.1 Cost Index -- 6.3 Control Angle -- 6.3.1 Constant Magnetic Heading -- 6.3.2 Constant True Heading -- 6.3.3 Constant Magnetic Track -- 6.3.4 Constant True Track -- 6.3.5 Lateral Navigation -- 6.4 Wind -- 6.5 Altitude -- 6.6 Putting It Together -- 7 Aircraft Manoeuvre Dynamics -- 7.1 Manoeuvre Frequency -- 7.2 Manoeuvre Extent -- 7.2.1 Parameter Selection -- 7.2.2 Manoeuvre Model Summary -- 7.3 Example Realisations -- 8 Particle Filter Implementation -- 8.1 BFO Bias -- 8.2 Algorithm -- 8.3 Assumptions -- 9 Validation Experiments -- 9.1 9M-MRO 26 February 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Amsterdam -- 9.2 9M-MRO 2 March 2014 Mumbai to Kuala Lumpur -- 9.3 9M-MRO 6 March 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Beijing -- 9.4 9M-MRO 7 March 2014 Beijing to Kuala Lumpur -- 9.5 7 March 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Amsterdam -- 9.6 7 March 2014 Kuala Lumpur to Frankfurt -- 9.7 Quantitative Analysis -- 9.7.1 Measurement Selection -- 9.7.2 Performance Measure -- 9.7.3 Results -- 10 Application to the MH370 Accident -- 10.1 The Filter Applied to the Accident Flight -- 10.2 Manoeuvre Statistics.

10.3 Residual Measurement Errors -- 10.4 Posterior Distribution of Manoeuvre Time Constant -- 10.5 End of Flight -- 10.6 Earlier Initialisation -- 10.7 Cost Index -- 10.8 Other Variations -- 11 Ongoing Refinement -- 11.1 Updating the Distribution Using Search Results -- 11.2 Reunion Island Debris -- 11.2.1 Update of Final Location Distribution -- 11.2.2 Data from Global Drifter Program -- 11.2.3 Posterior Distribution Using Debris Data -- 12 Conclusions -- References.