Effects of Including Agricultural Products in the Customs Union Between Turkey and the EU : : A Partial Equilibrium Analysis for Turkey.

• Superior document: Cege-Schriften Series ; v.9
• Author: Tangermann, Stefan.
• TeilnehmendeR: Grethe, Harald.
• Place / Publishing House: Frankfurt a.M. : : Peter Lang GmbH, Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften,, 2004.; Ã2004.
• Year of Publication: 2004
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Cege-Schriften Series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (338 pages)

Table of Contents

Cover -- List of Tables -- List of Graphs -- List of Figures -- Abbreviations -- Executive Summary -- 1 INTRODUCTION -- 2 AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND POLICIES IN TURKEY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION -- 2.1 Introductory Overview -- 2.2 Agricultural Markets and Product-Specific Support Policies -- 2.2.1 Cereals -- 2.2.2 Other Crops -- 2.2.3 Fruit and Vegetables -- 2.2.4 Meat -- 2.2.5 Eggs and Milk -- 2.3 Non-Product-Specific Agricultural Policies -- 3 DEVELOPMENT AND STATUS OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION -- 3.1 Overview of Agricultural Trade between Turkey and the European Union -- 3.2 Agricultural Trade Preferences between Turkey and the European Union -- 3.2.1 EU Preferences Granted for Agricultural Products Originating from Turkey -- 3.2.2 Turkish Preferences Granted for Agricultural Products Originating from the EU -- 3.2.3 Preferential Trade Arrangements for Non-Annex I Products -- 4 FUTURE AGRICULTURAL TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EU: THE POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF AGRICULTURE IN THE CUSTOMS UNION -- 4.1 Theoretical Aspects of a Customs Union in Agriculture between Turkey and the EU -- 4.1.1 Comparative Static Effects -- 4.1.2 Dynamic Effects of Market Integration -- 4.2 Previous Analytical Work on the Integration of Agricultural Markets between Turkey and the EU -- 4.3 Institutional Aspects of a Customs Union in Agriculture between Turkey and the EU -- 4.3.1 Harmonization of Agricultural Price Policies and Prices -- 4.3.2 Harmonization of Other Agricultural Policies -- 4.3.3 WTO Aspects -- 4.3.3.1 Market Access -- 4.3.3.2 Export Competition -- 4.3.3.3 Domestic Support -- 5 QUALIFICATION AND STRUCTURE OF THE TURKISH AGRICULTURAL SECTOR MODEL FOR POLICY ANALYSIS -- 5.1 Potential Modeling Tools for the Analysis of the Extension of the Customs Union and Justification of the Chosen Model.

5.2 Overview of the Turkish Agricultural Sector Model -- 5.3 Integration into the International Trade Environment -- 5.3.1 Basic Approach -- 5.3.2 The Generation of Border Prices and the Link to the Domestic Price Level in the Base Situation -- 5.3.3 The Generation of Border Prices and the Link to the Domestic Price Level in Simulations -- 5.4 Farm Supply Model -- 5.4.1 Plant Products -- 5.4.1.1 Basic Mechanisms -- 5.4.1.2 Additional Irrigation Area -- 5.4.2 Animal Products -- 5.5 Feed Model -- 5.6 Processing Model -- 5.7 Demand Model -- 5.8 Welfare Calculations -- 5.8.1 Welfare Changes at Farm Level -- 5.8.2 Welfare Changes at the Consumer Level -- 5.8.3 Welfare Changes at the Level of the Processing Industry -- 5.8.4 Budgetary Effects -- 6 BEHAVIORAL PARAMETERS -- 6.1 Basic Approach -- 6.2 Supply Side -- 6.2.1 Plant Products -- 6.2.1.1 Determination of Own Price Elasticities and Cost Shares of Variable Inputs -- 6.2.1.2 Determination of Cross Price Elasticities -- 6.2.2 Animal Products -- 6.3 Demand Side -- 6.3.1 Estimation of Income Elasticities from Expenditure Survey Data -- 6.3.1.1 Basic Considerations on the Use of Income Elasticity Estimates Based on Cross-Section Expenditure Data for Agricultural Sector Models -- 6.3.1.2 Data Set -- 6.3.1.3 Estimation Method and Results -- 6.3.2 Development of Elasticity-Matrices of Human Demand for Each Income Quintile -- 6.3.2.1 Determination of Income and Own Price Elasticities -- 6.3.2.2 Determination of Cross Price Elasticities -- 6.3.3 Development of Elasticity-Matrices of Feed Demand -- 6.3.4 Determination of Processing Demand Elasticities -- 6.4 Estimation of Price Transmission Elasticities for Animal Products -- 7 DATA SET FOR MODEL CALIBRATION -- 7.1 Supply, Trade, and Demand -- 7.1.1 Supply -- 7.1.1.1 Standard Approach -- 7.1.1.2 Specific Cases -- 7.1.2 Trade -- 7.1.3 Demand.

7.1.3.1 Processing Demand, Seed Demand, and Waste -- 7.1.3.2 Feed Demand -- 7.1.3.3 Human Demand -- 7.2 Domestic Prices, Trade Prices, and Margins -- 7.2.1 Domestic Prices -- 7.2.2 Trade Prices -- 7.2.3 Margins -- 7.3 Base Period Policies -- 7.3.1 Tariffs -- 7.3.2 Export Subsidies -- 7.3.3 Producer Premiums -- 8 PROJECTION SCENARIOS -- 8.1 World Market Prices -- 8.2 Shifters at the Supply Side -- 8.3 Shifters at the Demand Side -- 8.4 Development of the Southeast Anatolian Irrigation Project -- 8.5 Policies and Price Formation under the Status Quo and the Liberalization Scenario -- 8.6 Policies and Price Formation under the CU Scenario -- 9 RESULTS OF POLICY SIMULATIONS -- 9.1 Effects on Agricultural Prices, Production, and Consumption -- 9.1.1 National Effects Aggregated per Product Group -- 9.1.2 National Effects per Product -- 9.1.3 Production Effects per Region and Consumption Effects per Income Quintile -- 9.2 Effects on Trade -- 9.3 Welfare Effects -- 9.3.1 Effects on Producer and Consumer Welfare -- 9.3.2 Effects on Budgetary Outlays and Revenue and Overall Welfare Effects -- 9.3.3 Effects on Welfare Distribution -- 9.3.3.1 Changes in Producer Surplus per Region -- 9.3.3.2 Change in Consumer Welfare per Income Group -- 9.4 Impact of Changes in Farmgate-Wholesale Price Margins and the Real Exchange Rate -- 10 CONCLUSIONS -- 10.1 Liberalization of the Agricultural Sector -- 10.2 Extension of the Customs Union with the EU to Cover Agricultural Products -- REFERENCES -- ANNEX -- to Chapter 3 Overview of Existing Preferences Granted by the EU for Agricultural Imports Originating in Turkey -- to Chapter 5 TURKSIM GAMS code -- to Chapter 6 Table A-6.1: Allen Substitution Elasticities of Area Allocation -- Tables A-6.2-10: Regional Price Elasticities of Area Allocation -- Tables A-6.11-19: Regional Price Elasticities of Animal Supply.

Table A-6.20: Allen Substitution Elasticities of Human Demand -- Tables A-6.21-25: Compensated Price Elasticities of Human Demand per income quintile -- Tables A-6.26-30: Allen Substitution Elasticities of Feed Demand -- Tables A-6.31-35: Price Elasticities of Feed Demand -- to Chapter 7 Tables A-7.1-A-7.4 (Base data) -- to Chapter 8 Tables A-8.1-A-8.3 (price data for scenarios) -- to Chapter 9 Table A-9: Results per product -- other Map of Production Regions in Turkey.