Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2024

SUSANA B. ADAMO, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-ed4a-5n8p

cite as:
Adamo, Susana B. (2024). Relevance of population mobility for climate change mitigation. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-ed4a-5n8p

first online: 04.04.2024

Abstract:

Population mobility and immobility are depicted prominently in the climate change adaptation literature either as maladaptation, or failure to adapt, or as a key strategy for adaptation in place or elsewhere. On the other hand, the relevance of population mobility in the context of climate change mitigation has not been highlighted to the same extent as, for example, population growth and fertility. And yet, as the outcomes of people moving around – sometimes in unexpected ways because of local combinations of policies, contexts and shocks – population mobility patterns, trends and levels could both facilitate and constrain climate change mitigation efforts. In this brief note, I suggest that climate change mitigation strategies and actions need to take into account their potential interactions with population mobility because it is a key component of population growth, population distribution and urbanisation trends, as well as a potential contributor to behavioural change.

Keywords: Climate change mitigation, Population mobility, Migration policies, Mitigation policies, Population dynamics

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Johan Junkka, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
Maria Hiltunen, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-33g4-pgab

cite as:
Junkka, J., and Hiltunen, M. (2024). Temperature- and seasonality-related infectious disease mortality among infants: A retrospective time-series study of Sweden, 1868–1892. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-33g4-pgab 

first online: 01.02.2024

Abstract:

Climate conditions, such as ambient temperatures, play a crucial role in infants' vulnerability to infectious diseases. However, little is known about how climate conditions, such as temperatures and seasonality, affect infectious disease mortality among infants in high mortality settings. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between cause-specific infant mortality and ambient temperatures and seasonality. We applied a retrospective study design using parish register data from Sweden covering the 1868–1892 period in combination with daily temperature data. Mortality due to water- and foodborne diseases, airborne infectious diseases and other causes was modelled as a function of temperature exposure in the previous 14 days using distributed lagged non-linear models. We found that airborne infectious diseasemortality was not related to cold temperatures, but rather to seasonality. The summer peaks in mortality due to water- and foodborne infections were associated with high temperatures, and not with seasonality. The increased vulnerability of infants to infectious diseases at high temperatures is a significant future risk, given that global temperatures are projected to rise in the coming decades.

Keywords: temperature; seasonality; Infectious disease; infant mortality; retrospective study

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Supplementary Files: Supplementary material

Daniela Arsenovic, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
Stevan Savic, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
Dragan Miloševic, Wageningen University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen, Netherlands
Zorana Lužanin, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
Milena Kojic, Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia
Ivana Radic, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Medicine, Novi Sad, Serbia and Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
Sanja Harhaji, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Medicine, Novi Sad, Serbia and Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
Miodrag Arsic, Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh

cite as:
Arsenovic, D., Savic, S., Miloševic, D., Lužanin, Z., Kojic, M., Radic, I., Harhaji, S., and Arsic, M. (2024). Impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on selected hospital admissions in Novi Sad, Serbia. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-m53z-m2eh

first online: 01.02.2024

Abstract:

Climate change has been recognized as an important issue in public health, with particular concerns being raised about the effects of heat and cold extremes on health, and about seasonal changes over the year and their associations with increased mortality and hospitalizations. This paper explored the relationship between physiological equivalent temperature (PET) and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Novi Sad (Serbia) with the aim of assessing the impact of urban outdoor thermal conditions on health. Analysis was performed using daily data on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions by gender covering the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. For the same period, PET was calculated using data from two urban meteorological network stations. The association between PET and hospital admissions was examined using a generalized additive model (GAM) combined with a distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM). The study found a non-linear relationship between PET and cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions, with a larger impact during the cold period of the year. The findings also indicated that under conditions of high PET, the cumulative RR increased for cardiovascular admissions (for males) and respiratory admissions (for females). People with pre-existing respiratory diseases were found to be more vulnerable under conditions of extremely low and moderately low PET, with a greater effect at lag 0–14 days. By contrast, for people with cardiovascular diseases, low PET was linked to a decrease in hospital admissions, with the risk being lowest at lag 0 and 0–3 days.

Keywords: hospital admission; physiological equivalent temperature; cardiovascular diseases; respiratory diseases; Serbia

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Supplementary Files: Supplementary material

Emma Engström, Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden and Department of Urban Planning and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
Martin Kolk, Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden and Stockholm University Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-n5en-z38a

cite as:
Engström, E., and Kolk, M. (2024). Projecting environmental impacts with varying population, affluence and technology using IPAT – Climate change and land use scenarios. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-n5en-z38a 

first online: 01.02.2024

Abstract:

We theoretically explore the interrelations between population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T) for various environmental impacts (I ) using IPAT-type modelling. To illustrate the differences across environmental dimensions, climate and land use impacts are modelled. We use middle-of-the-road projections for population and per capita income and different forecasting methods for technology, including extrapolations of historical trends, models based on stochastic IPAT (STIRPAT) and predictions in the literature. The different approaches are compared within the IPAT framework. We also explore the consequences of alternative trajectories for P, A and T, and we discuss the implications of these trajectories for reaching global goals based on our modelling. The findings are analysed in light of three theories in environmental sociology, each of which places a different emphasis on the different components of IPAT. We argue that the large amount of technological mitigation assumed in many forecasts makes affluence and population relatively irrelevant for climate change. However, we also consider it likely that both factors will be determinants of land use impact in the 21st century.

Keywords: IPAT; environmental Kuznets curve (EKC); green growth; human ecology; STIRPAT model; land use impact

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Supplementary Files: Supplementary material

Francesca Zanasi, University of Bologna, Department of Social and Political Science, Bologna, Italy
Risto Conte Keivabu, Laboratory of Digital and Computational Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-8z36-6mmj

cite as:
Zanasi, F., and Conte Keivabu, R. (2024). Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-8z36-6mmj 

first online: 04.04.2024

Abstract:

Understanding the relationship between extreme temperatures and health among older adults is of paramount importance for public health in ageing societies. This study aims to enhance our understanding of the impact of extreme temperatures on morbidity, i.e. the risk of being hospitalised, using medications for heart conditions, and experiencing the onset of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among older adults in Europe (65+ years old) using five waves from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004–2015). It also explores heterogeneity in this impact depending on an array of factors that affect exposure and vulnerability to climate, including geographical location, gender, age, educational level, having a partner/child and living in an urban or a rural area. Results from individual fixed-effects models show that extremely cold temperatures increase the risk of being hospitalised and suffering from CVDs, while heat exposure has no noteworthy effect. Broken down by geographical location, the results indicate that one additional extremely cold day influences the risk of hospitalisation in the coldest and the warmest European regions, while extreme heat influences this risk in the warmest European regions. Finally, the oldest old and low educated individuals appear to be the most vulnerable social groups. The study concludes by discussing the advantages and the limitations of using survey data to study climate and health, and the strategies suggested by the relevant literature to prevent temperature-related illness.

Keywords: Old age, Extreme temperatures, Morbidity, Hospitalisation, European regions, Heterogeneity

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Supplementary Files: Supplementary material

Katharina Fenz, Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria
Thomas Mitterling, Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Laxenburg, Austria
Isabell Roitner-Fransecky, Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria and Department of Demography, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-8kaj-g8kb

cite as:
Fenz, K., Mitterling, T., Crespo Cuaresma, J., and Roitner-Fransecky, I. (2024). Climate, conflict and internal migration in Colombia. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-8kaj-g8kb

first online: 04.04.2024

Abstract:

Robust empirical evidence on the potential causal linkages between environmental change, conflict and migration is scarce. We evaluate this relationship in the context of internal migration in Colombia for the period from 2000 to 2005. Using municipalitylevel data in a gravity model that considers the issue of endogenous selection regarding both the outbreak of conflicts and the existence of non-zero migration flows, we establish an empirical causal link between droughts, conflict and migration. Our results show a positive relationship between the severity of droughts and the likelihood of conflicts, as well as between conflicts and human mobility, suggesting an indirect effect of climate on internal migration in Colombia.

Keywords: Migration, Environmental change, Conflict, SPEI, Endogenous selection, Gravity model

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Isabel H. McLoughlin Brooks, Population Research Center & Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-pfaj-9kzm

cite as:
McLoughlin Brooks, I. H. (2024). Gender, climate and landowning: Sources of variability in the weather pattern change and ideal fertility relationship in Sahelian West Africa. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-pfaj-9kzm

first online: 30.04.2024

Abstract:

This paper advances our understanding of the relationship between climate change and ideal fertility in Sahelian West Africa by exploring sources of variation in that relationship. Using an integrated dataset of Demographic and Health Surveys with monthly rainfall and temperature data, the analyses model dimensions of prospective ideal fertility for young, childless men and women in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria. Temperature, particularly in the arid climate zone, is shown to have a positive effect on ideal fertility. Landowning insulates individuals from adjusting their fertility ideals in response to change. Gender-stratified models reveal that under hotter conditions, women have a higher ideal number of children but their ideal gender composition remains relatively balanced, while men do not change their ideal number of children but show a preference for more sons. The increase in ideal fertility in response to weather change may be understood as an increasing need to generate human capital to meet the increased labour demands that climate change brings over both the short and the long term.

Keywords: Temperature, Precipitation, Sahel, West Africa, Gender composition, Ideal family size

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Mikhail Maksimenko, Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Sergey Timonin, School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia and International Laboratory for Population and Health, National Research University Higher School of Economic, Moscow, Russia
Natalia Shartova, International Laboratory for Landscape Ecology, National Research University Higher School of Economic, Moscow, Russia
Mikhail Varentsov, Research Computing Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-42de-zc5p

cite as:
Maksimenko, M., Timonin, S., Shartova, N., and Varentsov, M. (2024). Urban–rural differences in mortality during the 2010 heatwave in European Russia. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-42de-zc5p

first online: 22.05.2024

Abstract:

The 2010 summer heatwave in European Russia led to a notable increase in mortality due to extreme heat and associated wildfires. However, the diverse settlement patterns and the uneven impact of the heatwave in European Russia have left many geographical aspects of this event unexplored. For instance, the variations in excess mortality between major cities and smaller urban and rural areas remain unclear. According to our findings, during the 27–33 weeks of 2010, the total number of excess deaths was estimated at 56.0, with nearly 20% of them concentrated in Moscow. The age-standardized mortality rate in cities with more than one million inhabitants exceeded the expected values by 52% during the heatwave, while the excess mortality rate in rural areas was only 17%. The geographical area experiencing the highest excess mortality rate aligned with the zone of the greatest heatwave extent, as indicated by deviations from the climatic norm in temperatures and other measures of thermal stress. The risk of death from this increase in thermal stress more accurately represented by the Heat Index was found to be substantially higher in larger cities of 500,000 or more inhabitants, with the risk of death being especially high in major cities. Notably, air pollution was not found to be a significant modifier of excess mortality. It is important to note that the results obtained may have been influenced by the use of raster-based data from climate reanalysis, which may be expected to underrepresent local urban heat island effects, and consequently to underestimate risk exposure in urban areas.

Keywords: Heatwaves, Climate change, Excess mortality, Rural-urban disparity

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Supplementary Files: SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

Jasmin Abdel Ghany, University of Oxford, Nuffield College and Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (Nuffield Department of Population Health), Oxford, UK and IMPRS-PHDS International Max Planck Research School for Population, Health and Data Science at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Journal: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Volume: 22, 2024, pages (tbd - online-first)
Publisher: Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
doi: 10.1553/p-4mep-8zge

cite as:
Abdel Ghany, J. (2024). Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-4mep-8zge

first online: 12.06.2024

Abstract:

The region of West Asia and North Africa has not only been termed a “hotspot” region for the adverse impact of climate change in light of extreme temperature increases. Several countries have also experienced protracted humanitarian crises and civil wars in the last two decades, such as those in Syria, Yemen and Libya. The vulnerability of these populations makes advancing our understanding of how climate change may impact migration patterns in the region a matter of urgency. This study examines whether extreme temperatures influence bilateral forced migration between countries within West Asia and North Africa through their potential to increase armed conflict. The findings suggest that extreme temperatures in two consecutive years, defined as the upper 10% of the country-specific annual mean temperature distribution, cumulatively increase the probability of armed conflict by 42.5% in the following year ( p = 0.07). Armed conflict is strongly associated with an increase in asylum flows, by 45.8 percentage points ( p = 0.00), and there is a weak indication that conflict mediates the relationship between extreme heat and asylum flows. This explorative study is the first to apply a regional displacement perspective to the climate-conflict-migration nexus in West Asia and North Africa. The results underline the importance of taking contextual factors into account in the analysis of environmental migration.

Keywords: Climate change; Conflict; Forced migration; MENA

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