Defense resource planning under uncertainty : : an application of robust decision making to munitions mix planning / / Robert J. Lempert [et al.]
"Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risk...
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| Place / Publishing House: | Santa Monica, CA : : RAND Corporation,, 2016. ©2016 |
| Year of Publication: | 2016 |
| Language: | English |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (xxii, 86 pages) :; color illustrations, color charts |
| Notes: | "RAND National Security Research Division." |
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Table of Contents:
- Cover ; Title Page ; Copyright ; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE: Introduction ; Planning with Predictive Failure; Munitions Mix Challenge; Organization of This Report; CHAPTER TWO: The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning ; Comparison of RDM and Traditional Analysis; RDM Enables Decision Makers to Discover Robust Strategies Through Iteration; XLRM Factors Shape the Design of the Experiment; CHAPTER THREE: RDM Munitions Mix Analysis ; Initial Analysis of a Broad Range of Munitions Mix Strategies
- Analysis of Potentially More Robust Munitions Mix Strategies Stress-Testing of Strategies over Many Futures ; Scenarios That Illuminate the Vulnerabilities of Strategies ; Performance of Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Moderate Scenario ; Performance of the Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Extreme Scenario ; Future Focus on Purchase Rules in Addition to Portfolio Goals ; CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusions ; A Robust Munitions Mix Strategy ; The Future of RDM in Defense Planning ; APPENDIXES ; A. The Weapons on Target Model ; B. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN ; C. Data ; References