The next supreme leader : succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran / / Alireza Nader, David E. Thaler, S. R. Bohandy.
As the commander in chief and highest political authority in Iran, the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has played a critical role in the direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This monograph identifies three key factors that will shape succession of the next Supreme Leader and ou...
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Year of Publication: | 2011 |
Edition: | 1st ed. |
Language: | English |
Physical Description: | 1 online resource (158 p.) |
Notes: | "Prepared for the office of the Secretary of Defense." |
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Table of Contents:
- Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; Chapter One - Introduction; The Official Procedure for Selecting Iran's Supreme Leader Is Laid Out in the Iranian Constitution; In Actuality, the Next Succession Is Likely to Occur in a Much Different Way; The Factional Balance of Power; The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih; Khamenei's Personal Network; Other Potential Factors Are Not as Relevant if the Succession Happens in the Near Term
- The Trajectory of the Next Succession Will Hinge on How the Three Principal Factors Are Configured at the Time of Khamenei's Departure Methodology; Roadmap of the Report; Chapter Two - Factor 1: The Factional Balance of Power; The Factional Landscape in Iran; The Islamist Right; The Islamist Left (Reformists); Since the Islamic Revolution, Factionalism Has Been More Influential Than Constitutional Process in Decision making and Policy making Within the Iranian Political System; Khomeini Was Able to Keep Factional Jockeying Largely in Check
- Since Khamenei Came to Power in 1989, Factional Competition Has Grown Markedly in Both Intensity and Influence Chapter Three - Factor 2: The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih; The Absolute View of Velayat-e Faghih; The Democratic View of Velayat-e Faghih; The Quietist View of Velayat-e Faghih; Since Each Faction Has a Different View of Velayat-e Faghih, Whichever Dominates Iran's Political Landscape Will Play a Decisive Role in Shaping Succession; Chapter Four - Factor 3: Khamenei's Personal Network; The Members of Khamenei's Personal Network
- The Supreme Leader Has Historically Maintained a Personal Network Instrumental in Making Key Political Decisions Khomeini's Personal Network Was the Main Driver of the 1989 Succession; Since the Mid-1990s, Khamenei and His Personal Network Have Steadily Consolidated Authority and Are Now the Principal Decision makers in Iranian Politics; Chapter Five - Five Scenarios for Succession of the Supreme Leader in the Near Term; Indicators That Suggest How Factional Competition Is Evolving; Indicators That Point to the Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih
- Indicators That Signal How Khamenei's Personal Network Is Developing and the Power It Holds The Configuration of the Three Factors as of 2011; Five Possible Scenarios for Succession of the Current Supreme Leader; Status Quo: The Supreme Leader Remains Powerful But Not Omnipotent; Absolutist: The Supreme Leader, a Dictator, Discards Elected Institutions; Democratic: An Iranian-Stylized Islamic Democracy; Leadership Council: An Executive Body Beholden to Qom; Abolition: Demise of the Islamic Republic; The "Wild Card" Factor: The Nature and Timing of Khamenei's Exit
- The Status Quo and Absolutist Scenarios Seem the Most Likely for the Next Succession