Exploring terrorist targeting preferences / Martin C. Libicki, Peter Chalk, Melanie Sisson.

• Author: Libicki, Martin C.
• TeilnehmendeR: Chalk, Peter.; Sisson, Melanie.
• Year of Publication: 2007
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (131 p.)
• Notes: "MG-483."

Al Qaeda, the jihadist network personified by Osama bin laden, seeks a restored caliphate free of Western influence. It uses terror as its means. But how does terrorism serve the ends of al Qaeda? Understanding its strategic logic might suggest what U.S. targets it may seek to strike and why. This monograph posits four hypotheses to link means and ends. The coercion hypothesis suggests that terrorists are interested in causing pain, notably casualties, to frighten the United States into pursuing favorable policies (e.g., withdrawing from the Islamic world). The damage hypothesis posits that te

Table of Contents

Cover; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Glossary; Chapter One - Introduction; Chapter Two - What Drives al Qaeda's Choice of Targets?; The al Qaeda Targeting Process: Four Hypotheses; Some Observations on Rationality; Alternatives to Rational Action; Organization; Chapter Three - Hypothesis Testing: Quantitative and Qualitative Measures; Measuring Intent; Modeling Intent; Testing Hypotheses Against Past Attacks; Chapter Four - Hypothesis Testing: Al Qaeda Statements and Expert Observations; Al Qaeda's Reading of History Suggests the Leverage ofTerrorism

The Coercion HypothesisThe Damage Hypothesis; The Rally Hypothesis; The Franchise Hypothesis; Conclusions; Chapter Five - Ramifications for al Qaeda Attack Planning in the United States; Coercion; Damage; Rally; Franchise; Is the United States Off the Target List for the TimeBeing?; Conclusions; Bibliography