Pakistan : can the United States secure an insecure state? / / C. Christine Fair ... [et al.].

• Superior document: Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG-910-AF
• Author: Project Air Force (U.S.)
• TeilnehmendeR: Fair, C. Christine.; Project Air Force (U.S.); Rand Corporation.; United States. Air Force.
• Year of Publication: 2010
• Language: English
• Series: Rand Corporation monograph series ; MG-910-AF.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (261 p.)
• Notes: "MG-910-AF"--P. [4] of cover.; "RAND Project Air Force."

Describing Pakistan's likely future course, this book seeks to inform U.S. efforts to achieve an effective foreign policy strategy toward the country. The book forms an empirical analysis of developments in Pakistan and an assessment of the effectiveness of U.S. policy as of August 2009. Drawing on interviews of elites, polling data, and statistical data on Pakistan's armed forces, the book presents a political and political-military analysis. Primary data and analyses from Pakistanis and international economic organizations are used in the book's demographic and economic analyses. The book assesses Pakistan's own policies, based on similar sources, on government documents, and on the authors' close reading of the assessments of several outside observers. The book also discusses U.S. policy regarding Pakistan, which was based on interviews with U.S. policymakers and on U.S. policy documents. The policy recommendations are based on an assessment of the findings in all these areas. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this complicated state. --Publisher description.

Table of Contents

Cover; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE - Introduction; Purpose; Organization; Research Approach; CHAPTER TWO - Pakistan's Future: Is Past Prologue?; Failed Constitutionalism and Governance; Central Governance in Dispute; The Center's Relations with the Provinces and Other Areas; The Army: Guarantor of an Insecure State?; The Army's Preeminent Role in Decision making; Regional Security and Risk Taking; Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Sources of Security and Insecurity; Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons; The Proliferation Challenges

Organization and Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Infrastructure International Significance of Pakistan's Nuclear Challenges; Pakistan's Problematic Political Landscape; Principal Political Parties; Pakistan's Internal Security Challenges; Islamism, Militancy, and the State; The Post-9/11 Militant Landscape; Demographic Trends; Population Growth; Urbanization; The Economy; Economic Growth; Inflation and Fiscal Balance; Employment, Income Growth, and Poverty; Economic Outlook; Social Development; Education; Health; Concluding Remarks

CHAPTER THREE - Pakistan's Ability to Mitigate Sources of Insecurity The Constitution and Civil-Military Relations; Radical Reform Needed for Pakistan's Political Parties; Reasons for Optimism?; Taming the Military?; Countering Internal Security Threats; The Strategic Use of Militants; The Pakistan Government's Ability to Tackle the Militant Threat; Pakistan's Foreign Policy; Foreign Policy Objectives; Foreign Policymaking; Pakistan's Alliances and Regional Insecurities; Economic Policies; Macroeconomic Policies; Government Defense Spending and Other Military Revenues

Regulatory Policies and Privatization Policies for Social Development; Population Policy; Health Policy; Education Policy; Conclusions; CHAPTER FOUR - How Effective Have U.S. Policies Toward Pakistan Been?; Divergent Priorities and Conflicted Aims: U.S. and Pakistani Objectives; U.S. Objectives; Pakistan's Objectives; The Problem of Conflicting Goals; Engaging Pakistan: U.S. Policy Instruments and Their Effectiveness; Security Assistance Programs; Military Reimbursement; Arms Sales and Military Training; The Security Development Plan; Other Assistance for Internal Security

Assistance That Is Unrelated to Security Economic and Development Assistance; Non-U.S. Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan; U.S. Public Diplomacy and Democracy Promotion Efforts; The Downsides of "Conditionality"; The Downsides of U.S. Support for Individual Pakistani Leaders; Conclusions; CHAPTER FIVE - U.S. Policy Options for Pakistan; Learn the Lessons of the Past; A New Strategy for Pakistan; Develop Alternative Supply Routes for Operations in Afghanistan; Work with Pakistan's Key Supporters to Develop Cooperative Policies; Forge a Strategic Dialogue with Pakistan

Rebalance U.S. Assistance to Increase Support to Pakistan's Civilian Institutions and People