Dangerous thresholds : : managing escalation in the 21st century / / Forrest E. Morgan ... [et al.].

• Superior document: Rand Corporation monograph series
• Author: Project Air Force (U.S.)
• TeilnehmendeR: Morgan, Forrest E.; Project Air Force (U.S.); United States. Air Force.
• Year of Publication: 2008
• Language: English
• Series: Rand Corporation monograph series.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (275 p.)
• Notes: "MG-614-AF"--P. [4] of cover.; "Prepared for the United States Air Force."

This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decision making.

Table of Contents

Cover; Preface; Contents; Figures; Summary; Acknowledgments; Glossary; CHAPTER ONE- Introduction; Background; Contemporary Challenges; Purpose of This Monograph; Organization and Approach; CHAPTER TWO- The Nature of Escalation; Understanding Escalation; Dimensions of Escalation: Vertical, Horizontal, and Political; Escalation Mechanisms; Complexity in Escalation; Motives for Escalation; Dynamics of Escalation; Escalation and Instability in the 21st Century; Anticipating and Managing Escalation; CHAPTER THREE- China's Thinking on Escalation: Evidence from Chinese Military Writings

Introduction Background and Conceptual Issues; Understanding Chinese Views on Escalation and War Control; Assessing Chinese Escalation Behavior Through the Lens of the Second Artillery Doctrine; Second Artillery Nuclear Operations and Escalation; Second Artillery Conventional Missile Strike Campaigns; Chinese Views on Space Warfare and Escalation; Conclusion; CHAPTER FOUR- Regional Nuclear Powers; Escalation Risks Inherent in Emergent Nuclear Capability; Sources of Regional Instability; Conclusion; CHAPTER FIVE- Escalation in Irregular Warfare; Irregular Warfare's Many Paths of Escalation

Escalation in Stability Operations: Two Illustrative Cases Escalation in the Global Jihad; Escalation Management in the Struggle Against Global Jihad; Conclusion; CHAPTER SIX- Managing Escalation in a Complex World; The First Step in Managing Escalation Is Understanding Its Nature; Managing Escalation Risks in Today's World; Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force; APPENDIX A- China, Force, and Escalation: Continuities Between Historical Behavior and Contemporary Writings; APPENDIX B- Case Studies of Escalation in Stability Operations; APPENDIX C- Modified Method for Delphi Analyses

Bibliography