Predicting suicide attacks : : integrating spatial, temporal, and social features of terrorist attack targets / / Walter L. Perry [and seven others].

• Superior document: Rand Corporation monograph series
• Author: Naval Research Laboratory (U.S.); Perry, Walt L.,
• VerfasserIn: Perry, Walt L.
• TeilnehmendeR: Perry, Walt L.,; Naval Research Laboratory (U.S.); RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center.
• Place / Publishing House: Santa Monica, CA : : RAND Corporation,, 2013.
• Year of Publication: 2013
• Language: English
• Series: Rand Corporation monograph series.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (xxv, 85 pages) :; illustrations (some color)
• Notes: Description based upon print version of record.

As part of an exploration of ways to predict what determines the targets of suicide attacks, RAND conducted a proof-of-principle analysis of whether adding sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors would enhance the predictive ability of a methodology that focused on geospatial features. This test case focused on terrorist bombing incidents in Israel, but the findings indicate that the methodology merits further exploration.

Table of Contents

Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE: Introduction and Overview; Background; About This Report; CHAPTER TWO: Quantitative Data and Methods; Quantitative Data; Socioeconomic Characteristics; Demographic Characteristics; Electoral Data; Proximity to Terrorist Safe Houses; Sociocultural Precipitants; Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Regression; Logistic Regression; Dimension Reduction; Classification and Regression Trees; Sociocultural Precipitants Analysis; Results of Quantitative Data Analysis

Principal Components Analysis Logistic Regression Models; Classification and Regression Trees; Sociocultural Precipitants; Summing Up; CHAPTER THREE: Qualitative Analysis; Methodology; Hypotheses Driving the Use of the Methodology; Assumptions in Using the Methodology; Restrictions; Timing; Results of Qualitative Data Analysis; Identification of Codes; Distribution of Codes; Retargeting of Previously Attacked Locations; Dispersion of Attacks over Time; Assessment of Transportation Targets; Comparison of Codes to a Subject-Matter Expert Hypothesis; CHAPTER FOUR: Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions from Quantitative Data Analysis Conclusions from Qualitative Data Analysis; Recommendations for Further Research; Regression Analyses and Classification; Sociocultural Precipitants; Transferability; Appendixes; A. Sociocultural Precipitant Database; B. Logistic Regression Output; About the Authors; Bibliography