Victory has a thousand fathers : sources of success in counterinsurgency / / Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clark, Beth Grill.

• Author: Paul, Christopher.
• TeilnehmendeR: Clark, Colin P.; Grill, Beth.
• Year of Publication: 2010
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (187 p.)
• Notes: "Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defence."

Insurgency is the most prevalent form of armed conflict and the subject of countless studies, yet the U.S. military has only recently begun to review doctrine and training in this area. An examination of approaches to counterinsurgency from 30 recent resolved campaigns reveals, for example, that good COIN practices tend to ""run in packs"" and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict.

Table of Contents

Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE - Introduction; Purpose of This Study; Data and Analyses; About This Monograph and the Accompanying Case Studies; CHAPTER TWO - The Cases; Case Selection and Data Collection; Phased Data; Assessing Case Outcomes; Nicaragua (Somoza), 1978-1979; Afghanistan (Anti-Soviet), 1978-1992; Kampuchea, 1978-1992; El Salvador, 1979-1992; Somalia, 1980-1991; Peru, 1980-1992; Nicaragua (Contras), 1981-1990; Senegal, 1982-2002; Turkey (PKK), 1984-1999; Sudan (SPLA), 1984-2004

Uganda (ADF), 1986-2000 Papua New Guinea, 1988-1998; Liberia, 1989-1997; Rwanda, 1990-1994; Moldova, 1990-1992; Sierra Leone, 1991-2002; Algeria (GIA), 1992-2004; Croatia, 1992-1995; Afghanistan (Post-Soviet), 1992-1996; Tajikistan, 1992-1997; Georgia/Abkhazia, 1992-1994; Nagorno-Karabakh, 1992-1994; Bosnia, 1992-1995; Burundi, 1993-2003; Chechnya I, 1994-1996; Afghanistan (Taliban), 1996-2001; Zaire (Anti-Mobutu), 1996-1997; Kosovo, 1996-1999; Nepal, 1997-2006; Democratic Republic of the Congo (Anti-Kabila), 1998-2003; Case Narrative Results

CHAPTER THREE - Testing the Approaches to Counterinsurgency Representing the Approaches in the Data; Analysis of the Relationships Between Case Factors and Case Outcomes; Factor Stacks; Tests of Each Approach; Classic COIN Approaches; Contemporary Approaches to COIN; Insurgent Approaches; Summary of the Tests of the Approaches; CHAPTER FOUR - Broader Findings; Scorecard: Balance of Good Versus Bad Practices; Every Insurgency May Be Unique, but Not at This Level of Analysis; Which Successful Approach Is Most Essential? Qualitative Comparative Analysis; Phase Outcomes

CHAPTER FIVE - Conclusions and Recommendations Key Findings; Effective COIN Practices Tend to Run in Packs; The Balance of Good Versus Bad Practices Perfectly Predicts Outcomes; Poor Beginnings Do Not Necessarily Lead to Poor Ends; Repression Wins Phases, but Usually Not Cases; Tangible Support Trumps Popular Support; APPENDIXES; A. Methods and Data; B. Details of Qualitative Comparative Analysis; C. Possible Criticisms of the Analyses and Response Commentary; References

SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL - Matrix of Factors Representing 20 Approaches to COIN and Scorecard of Good Versus Bad COIN Practices and Factors Back Cover