Embracing the fog of war : assessment and metrics in counterinsurgency / / Ben Connable.
The unpredictable counterinsurgency environment challenges centralized, quantitative campaign assessment. A comprehensive examination of the centralized, quantitative approach to assessment, as described in the literature and doctrine and applied in two primary case studies (Vietnam and Afghanistan)...
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| Year of Publication: | 2012 |
| Edition: | 1st ed. |
| Language: | English |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (341 p.) |
| Notes: | "Prepared for the U.S. Department of Defense." |
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Table of Contents:
- Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables and Text Boxes; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE: Introduction; Background; Differences Between Campaign Assessment and Intelligence Analysis; The Role and Purpose of Military Campaign Assessment; Dissatisfaction with Counterinsurgency Campaign Assessment; Literature Review; Research Methodology; Issues Not Addressed; Organization of This Monograph; CHAPTER TWO: Concepts That Shape Counterinsurgency Assessment; Policy Requirements and Counterinsurgency Assessment; Wicked Problems and Counterinsurgency
- Complex Adaptive Systems, Nonlinearity, and ChaosMilitary Doctrine and the COIN Environment; Chapter Summary; CHAPTER THREE: Centralized Assessment Theory and Pattern and Trend Analysis; Centralized Quantitative Assessment; Differences Between Scientific Research and Campaign Assessment; Applying Scientific Rigor to Assessment; Time-Series Analysis; Time-Series Graphs in Military Assessment; Retroactively Adjusting Time-Series Analysis and Assessment; Pattern and Trend Analysis; Chapter Summary; CHAPTER FOUR: The Effects-Based Approach to Assessment
- What Is Effects-Based Operations Theory and How Does It Shape Assessment?Introduction to Effects-Based Operations; Elements of Effects-Based Theory: Definitions and System-of-Systems Analysis; Effects-Based Assessment.; Measures and Indicators; Doctrinal Effects-Based Assessment Process: Overview; Selecting Measures and Indicators; Weighting the Assessment; Determining Thresholds for Indicators; Examples of Color-Coded Reports; Chapter Summary; CHAPTER FIVE: Choosing Core Metrics; Choosing "Metrics" and Determining Values; Considerations for Selecting Core Metrics
- Example of a Core Metric: First-to-Fire IndicatorExample of Input Measures of Performance or Indicators; Example of Output Measures of Effectiveness or Indicators; Example of Measures of Effectiveness and Indicators from Doctrine; Chapter Summary; CHAPTER SIX: Vietnam-Era Assessment; Orientation to Vietnam, Circa 1967-1973; Overview of Vietnam-Era Assessment Processes; Thomas C. Thayer and the Southeast Asia Analysis Reports; Limitations of Thayer's Data; The Concept of "Reasonable" Accuracy; Body Counts; The Hamlet Evaluation System; Hamlet Evaluation System Concept and Execution
- Hamlet Evaluation System Data and AnalysisPattern and Trend Analysis of Vietnam War Data; Casualty Data and Impressionistic Assessment of the Vietnam War; Is Analysis of Vietnam Assessment Germane to Iraq and Afghanistan Assessment?; Chapter Summary; CHAPTER SEVEN: Assessment in Afghanistan; Overview of the Assessment Process in Afghanistan as of Late 2010; Data Management Challenges: The Case of Afghanistan; Problems with the Significant Activities Data Sets; Analysis of the Afghanistan Assessment Process; Chapter Summary
- CHAPTER EIGHT: Why Does Centralized Assessment Fail in Counterinsurgency?