Faultlines of conflict in Central Asia and the south Caucasus : : implications for the U.S. Army / / Olga Oliker, Thomas Szayna.

• Author: Rand Corporation.; Oliker, Olga.
• TeilnehmendeR: Szayna, Thomas S., 1960-; Rand Corporation.
• Year of Publication: 2002
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (409 p.)
• Notes: "MR-1598."

In this volume, the authors identify and evaluate key faultlines in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and how they affect the likelihood and possible evolution of armed conflict in these regions. The analysis examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the US into the strife.

Table of Contents

Cover; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Chapter One - Introducion: Thomas S. Szayna and Olga Oliker; The Context; Objectives, Approach, and Organization; Chapter Two - The Political Evolution of Central Asia and South Caucusus: Implications for Regional Security: Tanya Charlick-Paley with Phil Williams and Olga Oliker; Introduction; Political Institutionalization, Deprivation, and State and Societal Capcity: a Framework for Risk Analysis; Institutionalization in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Rating the Risk of Internal Conflict; The Role of Islam

Political Landscape: ConclusionsProximate Causes of Conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus; The Ferghana Valley and Cross-Border Incursions; Nagorno-Karabakh; Georgian Separatists and Russia; Conclusions; Chapter Three - Some Economic Dimensions of Security in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Abraham S. Becker; Introduction; Regional Overview; Prospects; Chapter Four - Criminalization and Stability in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Phil Williams; Introduction; Characteristics of Central Asia and South Caucasus; The Criminalization Syndrome

Governance and Criminalization in Central Asia and South CaucasusGovernance, Criminalization, and Instability in Central Asia and South Caucasus; Conclusions; Chapter Five - Natural Resources and Potential Conflict in the Caspian Sea Region: Sergej Mahnovski; Introduction; Fossil Fuel Production in the Caspian Sea Region; Natural Gas; Fossil Fuel Transport to Markets; Crude Oil; Natural Gas; Energy Relationships in the Caspian Sea Region; The Role of Water and Electricity in Central Asia; Can Natural Resources Contribute to Armed Conflict?; Some Potential Mitigating Factors to Conflict

ConclusionsChapter Six - Potential for Ethnic Conflict in the Caspian Region: Thomas S. Szayna; Introduction; The Ethnic Factor in the CASC States; Preconditions for Ethnic Conflict; Kazakhstan: an Example of a Nationalizing State; Catalysts to Ethnic Violence; Potential for Ethnic Violence in the CASC Region; Final Observations; Chapter Seven - Conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Implications of Foreign Interests and Involvement: Olga Oliker; Introduction; Russia; Turkey; The European Union and its Member States; Iran; China; Afghanistan; The United States; India and Pakistan

Great Power Competition and Great Power ConflictThe Local Perspective; Conclusions; Chapter Eight - Central Asia and South Caucasus as an Area of Operations: Challenges and Constraints: William D. O'Malley; Introduction; Deployment; Deployment by Air; By Sea; Infrastructure: Transitioning the Central Asia and South Caucasus Region; Rail; Road; Water; Air: Possible Staging Locations for U.S. Forces Operating Within or Outside the Region; Intermediate Support Base Possibilities; Operational Environment; South Caucasus; Central Asia; Operational Environment: Implications

Local Military Capabilities: Capacity and Interoperability Directions of Military Reform in Central Asia and South Caucasus