Estimating terrorism risk / Henry H. Willis ... [et al.].

• Superior document: Rand Corporation monograph series
• Author: Rand Corporation.
• TeilnehmendeR: Willis, Henry H.; Rand Corporation.
• Year of Publication: 2005
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Rand Corporation monograph series.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (93 p.)
• Notes: "MG-388-RC"--P. [4] of cover.

This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation.

Table of Contents

The RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy; Center for Terrorism Risk Management AdvisoryBoard; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Glossary; CHAPTER ONE- Introduction; Risk Assessment Versus Resource Allocation; Scope and Limitations; Overview of This Monograph; CHAPTER TWO- Terrorism Risk and Its Components; Threat; Vulnerability; Consequences; Risk as a Function of Threat, Vulnerability, andConsequences; CHAPTER THREE- Accounting for Uncertainty and Values in Terrorism Risk Assessment

Uncertainties in the Estimation of Threat, Vulnerability,and ConsequencesReflecting Values in Terrorism Risk Management; Implications of Uncertainty and Values for Managing Terrorism Risk; CHAPTER FOUR- Two Approaches to Estimating Terrorism Risk in Urban Areas; Simple Risk Indicators: Population-Based Metrics; Event-Based Models: The RMS Terrorism Risk Model; Comparison of Population, Density-Weighted Population,and the Aggregated Estimate of Urban Area Risk Shares; CHAPTER FIVE- Evaluating the Performance of Different Estimates of Terrorism Risk; The Performance of Terrorism Risk Estimates

CHAPTER SIX- Conclusions and RecommendationsDefining Terrorism Risk; Reflecting Uncertainty in Terrorism Risk Assessment; Simple Versus Event-Based Risk Estimates; Recommendations; APPENDIX- Supporting Figures and Table; Bibliography