Understanding and influencing public support for insurgency and terrorism / Paul K. Davis ... [et al.] ; prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

• Author: National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
• TeilnehmendeR: Davis, Paul K., 1943-; National Defense Research Institute (U.S.); Rand Corporation.
• Year of Publication: 2012
• Language: English
• Series: Rand Corporation monograph series
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (271 p.)
• Notes: Description based upon print version of record.

Using and testing a conceptual model that draws on social science and particularly social movement theory, this volume examines public support for al-Qa'ida's transnational jihadist movement, the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey, and the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. The authors discuss which factors were most salient across cases, how their importance varied in each case, and how this understanding can inform strategy.

Table of Contents

Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Chapter One: Introduction; Background; Objectives and Approach; Seeing the Work in a System Context; Concepts of Validation and Improvement; Challenges; Approach; Structure of the Monograph; Chapter Two: A Conceptual Model; The Concept of Factor Trees; Initial Factor Trees for the Study; Enhancements Drawn from Social Movement Theory; Major Elements of Social Movement Theory; Using the Elements as a Diagnostic Lens; The Final Conceptual Model of Our Study; Anticipating Conclusions; The Narrative

The Relative Importance of Factors Future Research: Modeling the Extent of Influence; Appendix to Chapter Two; Chapter Three: The Case of al-Qa'ida; Introduction; Purpose and Background; Methodology; A Factor Tree for Public Support of al-Qa'ida; Attractions; Perceived Legitimacy of Violence; Acceptability of Costs and Risks; Effectiveness of the Organization: Public Support Through the Lens of Social Movement Theory; Al-Qa'ida's Vulnerabilities; Conclusions; Chapter Four: Public Support for the Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan; Introduction; Purpose; Methodology; Background

Empirical Content Analysis Structuring the Data; Frequency of Factor Mentions and Co-Occurrences; Factors Affecting Public Support; Motivations; Perceived Legitimacy of Violence; Acceptability of Costs and Risks; Effectiveness of the Organization: Public Support Through the Lens of Social Movement Theory; Conclusions; Chapter Five: Public Support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkey; Introduction; Background and Purpose; Methodology; Factors Affecting Public Support; Motivations for Supporting Group or Cause; Perceived Legitimacy of Violence; Acceptability of Costs and Risks

Effectiveness of the Organization: Public Support Through the Lens of Social Movement Theory Conclusions; Appendix to Chapter Five: Selected Events in the PKK Insurgency; Chapter Six: Public Support for the Maoists in Nepal 3; Introduction; Purpose; Methodology; Background; Factors Affecting Public Support; Motivations for Supporting the Group or Cause; Perceived Legitimacy of Violence; Acceptability of Costs and Risks; Effectiveness of the Organization: Public Support Through the Lens of Social Movement Theory; Conclusions

Appendix to Chapter Six: Timeline of Historical Events in the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal Chapter Seven: Comparisons and Implications for Analysis of Strategy; Model Assessment and Comparisons Across Cases; Linking Conclusions to Strategy with a Model of Persuasive Communications; Real-World Events and Messages; Alternate Information Channels; Individual-Level Factors; Macro-, Meso-, and Micro-Level Strategy Options; Macro- or Societal-Level Options; Meso- or Factional-Level Options; Micro- or Individual-Level Options; Suggestions for Applied Analysis of Strategy in a Context

Implications for Further Research and Analysis