Mining for change : : natural resources and industry in Africa / / John Page and Finn Tarp.

• Superior document: UNU-WIDER studies in development economics
• Author: World Institute for Development Economics Research,
• TeilnehmendeR: Page, John M., 1949-; Tarp, Finn, 1951-; World Institute for Development Economics Research,
• Place / Publishing House: Oxford : : Oxford University Press,, 2020.
• Year of Publication: 2020
• Edition: First edition.
• Language: English
• Series: UNU-WIDER studies in development economics.; Oxford scholarship online.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource :; illustrations (black and white).
• Notes: This edition also issued in print: 2020.

For a growing number of countries in Africa the discovery and exploitation of natural resources is a great opportunity, but one accompanied by considerable risks. This book presents research on how to better manage the revenues and opportunities associated with natural resources.

Table of Contents

Cover -- Mining for Change: Natural Resources and Industry in Africa -- Copyright -- Foreword -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- List of Abbreviations -- Notes on Contributors -- 1: Overview -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Resource abundance, risk, and diversification -- 2.1 Commodity prices and volatility -- 2.2 Resource abundance and structural change -- 2.3 Implications for long-run growth -- 3. Understanding the boom -- 3.1 How much revenue and when? -- 3.2 Save or spend? -- 3.3 Paying it forward: debt financing -- 3.4 Setting the rules -- 3.5 The quality of public spending -- 4. The construction sector -- 4.1 Construction costs -- 4.2 Firm capabilities in construction -- 4.3 Materials, skills, finance -- 5. Rowing against the current: local content -- 5.1 The political economy of local content -- 5.2 Linking industry to the resource -- 6. Conclusions -- References -- PART I: FRAMING THE ISSUES -- 2: Understanding the Boom -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Sequence and timing -- 2.1 A sequence of asset transformations -- 2.2 The legal and institutional context -- 3. The literature -- 3.1 'Dutch disease' and volatility -- 3.2 Natural resources and institutions -- 4. Magnitudes -- 4.1 The construction sector and jobs -- 4.2 The environment for private business -- 4.3 Fiscal and monetary policy management -- 5. Institutions and policy stance -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 3: The Construction Sector in Developing Countries: Some Key Issues -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Background -- 3. Construction costs across time and space -- 3.1 What do we know about differences in unit costs? -- 3.2 How do construction costs affect the link between investment effort and investment outcomes? -- 4. Key bottlenecks in the construction sector -- 4.1 Organization and capabilities -- 4.2 Institutional constraints -- 4.2.1 Procurement -- 4.2.2 Financing -- 4.3 Critical inputs -- 4.4 Governance and corruption -- 5. Policy options -- 5.1 Institutional and regulatory reforms -- 5.2 Procurement and local content -- 6. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 4: Rowing against the Current: Economic Diversification in Africa -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Diversification initiatives -- 3. Dealing with Dutch disease -- 3.1 Regulatory reform -- 3.2 Infrastructure and skills -- 4. Linking industry to the resource -- 4.1 Building a public-private partnership -- 4.2 Improving coordination and reducing complexity -- 4.3 Training -- 5. Widening the options -- 5.1 Industries without smokestacks -- 5.2 Investing in knowledge -- 6. Conclusions -- References -- PART II: COUNTRY STUDIES -- 5: The Boom, the Bust, and the Dynamics of Oil Resource Management in Ghana -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Petroleum production and exploration in Ghana -- 2.1 Regulating exploration and production -- 2.2 The state of oil production -- 2.3 Comparing production with other African countries -- 2.4 Negotiating petroleum agreements in Ghana -- 3. Transparency and accountability measures -- 4. Petroleum revenues framework -- 5. Oil and macroeconomic performance -- 5.1 Dutch disease -- 5.2 Local content regulations -- 6. Conclusion -- References -- 6: The Construction Sector in Ghana -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Marginal costs of construction -- 2.1 Analyses of subsector costs -- 2.1.1 The housing subsector -- 2.1.2 Roads, drainage, and other social infrastructure subsectors -- 2.2 Patterns of inflation and subsector costs -- 2.3 Structure of the construction industry -- 2.4 Expenditure shocks and price dynamics -- 3. Bottlenecks to the supply response of the construction sector -- 3.1 Access to land and permits -- 3.2 Access to critical inputs -- 3.2.1 Skilled labour -- 3.2.2 Raw materials -- 3.3 Organization and capacity -- 3. Institutional and policy reforms in the construction sector -- References -- 7: Local Content Law and Practice: The Case of Ghana -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Contextualizing natural resource extraction and national development -- 3. The oil and gas sector, local content, and local participation -- 4. Policy and legislative development on local content and local participation in Ghana's oil and gas value chain -- 4.1 Policy development process -- 4.2 Legislative development process -- 5. Implementation of the local content policy and law on oil and gas in Ghana -- 5.1 Institutional arrangements for local content implementation -- 6. Current level of goods and services supplied by Ghanaian companies -- 7. Recruitment, training, and promotion of Ghanaian nationals for jobs in the oil sector -- 8. 'Local local' content -- 9. Challenges of local content implementation in Ghana's oil and gas sector -- 9.1 Local business capacities in the oil and gas industry -- 9.2 Discrimination against indigenous companies -- 9.3 Regulatory institutional challenges -- 10. Options for increasing local participation in the oil and gas industry in Ghana -- 11. Conclusion and policy recommendations -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 8: Mozambique-Bust before Boom: Reflections on Investment Surges and New Gas -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Mozambique's investment surge post-2010 -- 3. The effects of an investment surge -- 4. Mozambique expectations and realities -- 5. A few implications -- 5.1 The fiscal starting point -- 5.2 Foregone opportunities -- 5.3 Macroeconomic choices -- 5.4 A sovereign wealth fund -- 5.5 Investing for structural transformation -- 6. The epidemiology of the investment boom problem -- 6.1 Macroeconomic problems -- 6.2 Fiscal financing problems -- 6.3 Transition problems -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 9: The Construction Sector in Mozambique -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Construction and development: conceptual approach -- 3. Overall evolution of the national economy since independence in 1975 -- 4. Construction sector analysis -- 4.1 Historical background in Mozambique -- 4.1.1 Financing sources for construction projects -- 4.1.2 Structure of companies in the construction sector -- 4.1.3 Institutional features -- 4.2 Building materials sector -- 4.3 Construction sector value chain -- 4.4 Construction costs, household income levels, and procurement issues -- 5. Construction sector: bottlenecks and recommendations -- 6. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 10: Local Content and the Prospects for Economic Diversification in Mozambique -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The country and its extractive industries -- 3. Facing up to the fiscal crisis -- 4. The policy environment -- 4.1 Political trajectory of the policy environment -- 4.2 Industrial policy and MSME development -- 4.3 Local content and social investment in local economic development -- 5. Summary -- References -- 11: Gas in Tanzania: Adapting to New Realities -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The magnitude and timing of a prospective resource boom -- 2.1 Risks -- 2.1.1 Geological and engineering challenges -- 2.1.2 Market and commercial risks -- 2.1.3 Policy risks: the 'authorising environment' -- 2.2 Projections: production and prices -- 2.3 Projections: fiscal terms and cost recovery -- 3. Public policy and risk -- 3.1 Legal and regulatory requirements -- 3.2 Policy co-ordination and the authorizing environment -- 4. Public policy and the contribution of natural resources to growth, structural change, and industrialization -- 4.1 Jobs and construction -- 4.2 Externalities and private investment -- 4.3 Fiscal policy management and public investment -- 5. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 12: The Construction Sector in Tanzania -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Structure of the construction sector -- 2.1 Ministry of Works, Transport and Communication (MoWTC) -- 2.1.1 Architects and Quantity Surveyors Registration Board (AQRB) -- 2.1.2 Engineers Registration Board (ERB) -- 2.1.3 The Contractors Registration Board (CRB) -- 2.2 Clients -- 3. Behaviour of construction prices -- 3.1 Investment shocks in the construction sector -- 4. Key bottlenecks to supply response -- 4.1 Land issues in Tanzania -- 4.2 Issuance of construction permits in Tanzania -- 4.3 Skilled labour -- 4.4 Construction materials and equipment -- 5. Conclusion and policy recommendations -- 5.1 Raw materials and construction equipment/plant -- 5.2 Skills shortage -- 5.3 Access to land and construction permits -- 5.4 Contractors' challenges -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 13: Local Content: Are There Benefits for Tanzania? -- 1. Introduction -- 2.

Local content legislation in Tanzanian extractive industries -- 2.1 General legislation -- 2.2 Mining sector -- 2.2.1 Background -- 2.2.2 Current local content -- 2.3 Oil and natural gas -- 2.3.1 Background -- 2.3.2 Current local content -- 3. Management of local content policies in Tanzania -- 4. Evaluating Tanzania's local content policies -- 4.1 Qualitative research -- 4.2 Testing for the impact of local content policy using the ASIP -- 5. Quantifying the value of local content using the 2013 Industrial Census -- 6. Lessons for Tanzania from country experiences with local content legislation -- 6.1 Quantitative analyses -- 6.2 Qualitative evidence -- 6.3 Summarizing the evidence -- 7. Conclusion -- References -- 14: Uganda's Oil: How Much, When, and How Will It Be Governed? -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Timing and sequencing of the oil boom -- 2.1 Uganda's oil timeline thus far -- 2.1.1 Exploration during colonial times -- 2.1.2 Exploration after independence -- 2.1.3 Slowdown of exploration activity and development of current legal framework -- 2.1.4 Development of infrastructure required for production -- 2.1.5 Critical infrastructure project 1: oil refinery -- 2.1.6 Critical infrastructure project 2: oil pipeline -- 2.2 Forecast of size and timing of revenue stream -- 2.2.1 Critical forecast sensitivity 1: oil price -- 2.2.2 Critical forecast sensitivity 2: recoverable reserves -- 2.2.3 Critical forecast sensitivity 3: delays -- 2.2.4 Revenue projections -- 3. Is Uganda ready for oil to flow? -- 3.1 Expectations for the oil sector -- 3.2 The current governance framework and its shortcomings -- 3.2.1 Ambiguity regarding the fiscal anchor and sovereign wealth fund -- 3.2.2 Vulnerability to price and political shocks -- 3.2.3 Narrow focus on development spending -- 3.3.3 Mitigating the risk of Dutch disease -- 3.3.4 How much to spend: the choice of fiscal rule -- 3.3.5 Poor quality of public investment management -- 4. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- Government documents -- News reports -- Reference papers -- 15: Construction and Public Procurement in Uganda -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Overview and market structure of the construction sector -- 2.1 Demand side: the role of government contracts -- 2.2 Supply side: firm-level evidence -- 3. Regulatory framework and main stakeholders -- 3.1 Public procurement and the central role of PPDA -- 3.2 Doing business with the government -- 3.2.1 Choice of procurement method -- 3.2.2 Evaluation phase -- 3.3 Stakeholders in the construction sector -- 3.3.1 Main stakeholders in public procurement -- 3.3.2 Additional stakeholders -- 4. Challenges to sector development and efficiency -- 4.1 Corruption and inefficiency in public procurement -- 4.2 Access to finance -- 4.3 Marginal costs of construction -- 5. Conclusion -- Acknowledgements -- References -- 16: Enhancing Local Content in Uganda -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Prospects for local supplier development -- 3. The local content management framework -- 3.1 Overview of local content requirements in Uganda's oil industry -- 3.2 Evaluation of local content requirements -- 3.2.1 Clarity of scope and provisions for measurement -- 3.2.2 Presence of monitoring mechanisms -- 3.2.3 Feasibility of implementation -- 4. Assessing domestic supplier capabilities in Uganda -- 4.1 How are local firms integrated into the natural resource value chain? -- 4.2 What capabilities do domestic firms have to enter the resource value chain? -- 5. Conclusion -- References -- 17: The Boom-Bust Cycle of Global Copper Prices, Structural Change, and Industrial Development in Zambia -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Zambia's economic and political context -- 3. Extent of the mineral resource -- 4. How large are the resource revenues likely to be? -- 5. When are the revenues likely to come on line? -- 6. Fiscal policy and managing copper booms -- 7. How much spending? Fiscal projections -- 8. Revenue-sharing arrangements -- 9. Reducing sovereign debt -- 10. Exchange rate -- 11. Fiscal rules -- 12. Public investment -- 13. Conclusions -- References -- 18: The Construction Sector in Zambia -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Organization and change in Zambia's construction industry -- 2.1 Demographic, political and economic changes, and construction in Zambia -- 2.2 Construction industry organization: cost and pricing implications -- 2.3 Construction regulations and public institutions -- 2.3.1 Important procurement laws and regulations in construction in Zambia -- 2.3.2 Important governance and regulatory institutions and other stakeholders -- 3. Bottlenecks in the construction sector -- 3.1 Firm-level bottlenecks -- 3.2 Industry-wide bottlenecks -- 3.3 Macroeconomic factors serving as construction bottlenecks -- 4. Summary of options for dealing with key bottlenecks -- 4.1 Institutional, governance, and regulatory reforms -- 4.2 Industry-support policies and reforms -- References -- 19: Local Content in Zambia-a Faltering Experience? -- 1. Introduction -- 2. LC and industrialization: a brief review -- 2.1 What constitutes LC? -- 2.2 LC, economic linkages, industrialization, and structural change -- 2.3 The importance of technological change and entrepreneurship -- 2.4 Global and regional value chains and LC -- 3. The evolution of LC in Zambia -- 3.1 LC, manufacturing, and industrialization in Zambia: a historical perspective -- 3.1.1 LC and import-substitution industrialization, 1964-91 -- 3.1.2 LC, market liberalization, and privatization, 1991-present -- 3.1.3 Privatization stymied LC development and the manufacturing sector -- 3.2 Current LC initiatives -- 3.3 LC, supply chains, and domestic supplier firms -- 4. The policy and legislative space for LC -- 5. LC and industrialization: the structural impediments -- 5.1 ISI: a defective industrialization and LC agenda? -- 5.2 Post-1991 reforms: an elusive industrialization and LC agenda? -- 6. Back to basics: mending the role of LC in industrialization -- 6.1 Improve the competitiveness and productivity of the manufacturing sector -- 6.1.1 Develop a domestic raw material base -- 6.1.2 Improve workforce skills -- 6.1.3 Improve R&D and innovation -- 6.2 Strengthen the policy and legislative base for LC growth and industrialization -- 6.2.1 Strengthening mineral legislation -- 6.2.2 Rationalizing the use of incentives -- 6.2.3 Harmonizing legislation across sectors -- 6.3 Build the capabilities of endogenous SME manufacturing firms and suppliers -- 6.4 Strengthen the macroeconomic environment -- References -- PART III: POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- 20: Implications for Public Policy -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Managing a modest boom -- 2.1 Managing expectations -- 2.2 How much spending? -- 2.3 Improving the quality of public spending -- 3. Construction and 'investing to invest' -- 3.1 Increasing the capabilities of local contractors -- 3.2 Relaxing supply constraints -- 3.3 Dealing with corruption and collusion -- 4. Linking industry to the resource -- 4.1 Local content -- 4.2 A public-private partnership -- 4.3 Training -- 5. Widening the options -- 5.1 Dealing with Dutch disease -- 5.2 Broadening the horizon: industries without smokestacks and investing in knowledge -- 5.3 Spatial industrial policy -- 6. Conclusions -- References -- Index.