A world trading system for the twenty-first century / / Robert W. Staiger.

• Superior document: Ohlin lectures
• Author: Staiger, Robert W.
• Year of Publication: 2022
• Language: English
• Series: Ohlin lectures
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (xii, 338 p.) :; ill.

When designing a world trading system for the twenty-first century, “Keep calm and carry on” beats “Move fast and break things.” Global trade is in trouble. Climate change, digital trade, offshoring, the rise of emerging markets led by China: Can the World Trade Organization (WTO), built for trade in the twentieth century, meet the challenges of the twenty-first? The answer is yes, Robert Staiger tells us, arguing that adapting the WTO to the changed economic environment would serve the world better than a radical reset.Governed by the WTO, on the principles of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), global trade rules traditionally focus on “shallow integration” - with an emphasis on reducing tariffs and trade impediments at the border - rather than “deep integration,” or direct negotiations over behind-the-border measures. Staiger charts the economic environment that gave rise to the former approach, explains when and why it worked, and surveys the changing landscape for global trade. In his analysis, the terms-of-trade theory of trade agreements provides a compelling framework for understanding the success of GATT in the twentieth century. And according to this understanding, Staiger concludes, the logic of GATT's design transcends many, if not all, of the current challenges faced by the WTO. With its penetrating view of the evolving global economic environment, A World Trading System for the Twenty-First Century shows us a global trading system in need of reform, and Staiger makes a persuasive case for using the architecture of the GATT/WTO as a basis for that reform.

Table of Contents

Preface ix -- 1 Introduction 1 -- 1.1 A Roadmap for the Book 6 -- I The World Trading System of the Twentieth Century 29 -- 2 The GATT/WTO 31 -- 2.1 The Design of the GATT/WTO 31 -- 2.2 The Purpose of Trade Agreements 41 -- 3 What Do Trade Negotiators Negotiate About? 59 -- 3.1 Preliminaries 59 -- 3.2 Evidence from WTO Accession Negotiations 66 -- 4 Tariff Bargaining in the GATT/WTO 77 -- 4.1 Theory 78 -- 4.2 Torquay Round Bargaining Records 92 -- 5 Tariff Bargaining without GATT/WTO Rules 99 -- 5.1 Theory 99 -- 5.2 Quantitative Trade Modeling of Uruguay Round Tariff -- Bargaining 108 -- 5.3 Interpreting Trump's (One-Sided) Trade War 112 -- 6 The GATT/WTO as an Incomplete Contract 119 -- 6.1 Rules 121 -- 6.2 Disputes 130 -- 6.3 The Non-Violation Clause 137 -- II Meeting the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century 147 -- 7 The Rise of Large Emerging Markets 149 -- 7.1 Rebalancing Market Access Commitments 149 -- 7.2 Reconsideration of the Level of Market Access -- Commitments 158 -- 7.3 The Latecomers Problem 164 -- 8 Climate Change 169 -- 8.1 Climate Policy and Trade Agreements 170 -- 8.2 Carbon Border Adjustments 177 -- 8.3 Negotiation Linkage 181 -- 9 Digital Trade 187 -- 9.1 What Is Digital Trade? 191 -- 9.2 What Are the Policies That Affect Digital Trade? 194 -- 9.3 Digital Trade in Goods 196 -- 9.4 Digital Trade in Services 210 -- 9.5 Digital Trade and the Design of the WTO 214 -- 10 The Rise of Offshoring and Global Value Chains 219 -- 10.1 GVCs and Deep Integration 221 -- 10.2 What the Rise of GVCs Means for the Design of Trade -- Agreements 232 -- 11 The Push toward Regulatory Convergence 237 -- 11.1 A Model of Regulatory Heterogeneity and -- Firm Delocation 239 -- 11.2 Mutual Recognition When Consumption Externalities Are -- Absent 246 -- 11.3 Deep Integration in the Presence of Consumption -- Externalities 253 -- 11.4 The Push for Regulatory Convergence and the Design of -- the WTO 260 -- III The Future of the Rules-Based Multilateral -- Trading System 263 -- 12 The Elephants in the Room 265 -- 12.1 The Clash of Sovereignty and Globalization 265 -- 12.2 The Declining Hegemon 272 -- 12.3 The WTO's Role in Preparing for the Next Pandemic 279 -- 13 A World Trading System for the Twenty-First Century 295 -- 14 Conclusion 305 -- References 311 -- Index 325.