Macroeconometric models and European Monetary Union / Stephen G. Hall, Ullrich Heilemann, and Peter Pauly (eds.).

• Superior document: RWI Schriften, Heft 73
• Author: Hall, Stephen G. (Hrsg.)
• TeilnehmendeR: Hall, S. G.; Heilemann, Ullrich.; Pauly, Peter.
• Year of Publication: 2004
• Language: English
• Series: RWI Schriften ; Heft 73.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (226 p.)
• Notes: Description based upon print version of record.

Hauptbeschreibung This volume contains the contributions of a conference dealing with the consequences of the European Monetary Union for the macroeconometric modelling of the Euro area, which took place in Essen in 2000. At the end of the conference the participants were convinced that the discussions including a great variety of theoretical, methodical and factual aspects from the producers' as well as the consumers' perspective will not fail to have a certain impact on the future development of macroeconometric modelling in the Euro area. Once more it became clear, howev

Table of Contents

Preface; Contents; Stephen G. Hall, Ullrich Heilemann, and Peter Pauly: Introduction; Lawrence R. Klein: US and NAFTA - Some First Experiences and Modelling; Future prospects; References; Michael Beeby, Stephen G. Hall, and S.G. Brian Henry: Modelling the Euro-11 Economy: A Supply-Side Approach; 1. Introduction; 2. The data; 3. The model; 4. Estimation results; 5. Estimating the NAIRU in the Euro-11; 6. Simulation exercises; 7. Conclusion; Appendix: Estimation Results; References; Mika Kortelainen and David G. Mayes: Using EDGE - A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area

1. An outline of the EDGE model2. Calibration; 3. Simulations to set the characteristics of the model; 3.1 A shock from government policy; 3.2 A permanent increase in the equity premium; 3.3 A permanent increase in world demand; 4. Monetary policy simulations; 4.1 A temporary interest rate shock; 4.2 The importance of credibility in monetary policy; 4.3 Learning; 5. Implications; Appendix; 1. List of equations; 2. The steady state model; References; David Rae and David Turner: A Small Global Forecasting Model; 1. Introduction; 2. Overview of the model; 2.1 Inflation

2.2 GDP and the output gap2.3 Import prices; 2.4 Commodity prices; 2.5 Other variables; 3. Simulation properties; 3.1 The inflationary consequences of a global boom; 3.2 United States domestic demand and monetary policy; 4. Summary and future developments; Annex: Standard simulation results; Appendix - Data Definitions; References; Gabriel Fagan, Jérôme Henry, and Ricardo Mestre: Structural Modelling of the Euro Area; 1. The story underlying the history of euro-area modelling at the ECB; 1.1 A specifically challenging context; 1.2 A suite of models, with priority on structural models

1.3 Two structural models, the AWM and the MCM, supplemented with other tools2. An illustration of the approach: the AWM; 2.1 The AWM Basic structure; 2.2 Long run solution of the model: stylised facts; 2.2.1 Supply side; 2.2.2 Demand side; 2.2.3 Monetary side; 2.3 Long-run and short-run properties of some of the key equations; 2.4 Adjustment to equilibrium and short-run mechanisms: an illustration; 2.5 Evaluation and use of the model; 3. Conclusions; References; Jean Louis Brillet and Maria Dos Santos: The Consequences of EMU Entry for Spain and Portugal - Simulations Using the MacSim System

1. The model1.1 Introduction; 1.2 The single-country basic model; 1.2.1 Productive investment; 1.2.2 Employment; 1.2.3 Unemployment; 1.2.4 The value added price; 1.2.5 The trade prices; 1.2.6 The wage rate; 1.2.7 The changes in inventories; 1.2.8 Household consumption; 1.2.9 Imports; 1.3 Integrating the financial variables; 1.3.1 The options for the interest rate; 1.3.2 The options for the exchange rate; 1.3.3 Summarizing the influences; 1.3.4 Enhancing the role of interest rates; 1.4 Merging the models; 1.4.1 The exchange block; 1.4.2 The Rest of the World; 2. The model properties

2.1 Simulation context